A multidisciplinary team of TU Delft mobility researchers, known as The Mobilisers, embarked on a journey to explore the future of mobility and how it is embedded in various socio-technological contexts. We developed four radical, yet realistic scenarios for the Dutch Mobility System in 2050, taking into account the Netherlands' position as part of Europe and its role as an international hub. @en

Longitudinal travel surveys are needed to capture individual travel behaviour changes. Only two longitudinal tavel surveys of national relevance are currently in operation, the German Mobility Panel (MOP) since 1994 and the Netherlands Mobility Panel (MPN) since 2013. This paper provides an overview of both panels' differences and similarities in design and data collection. Furthermore, representativeness, diary fatigue and non-random attrition are assessed in both panels to show the challenges panel surveys have to deal with. Overall, this paper shows important aspects of a panel survey that should be considered when designing a new longitudinal travel survey.

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Physical distancing has been an important asset in limiting the SARS-CoV-2 virus spread during the COVID-19 pandemic. This study aims to assess compliance with physical distancing and to evaluate the combination of observed and self-reported data used. This research shows that it is difficult to operationalize new rules, that context affects compliance, that there needs to be a need for compliance, and that rules require upkeep. From a methodological point of view, this study found that the combined methods provide a comprehensive picture of compliance behaviour, that it is challenging but essential to mitigate response fatigue in long-term monitoring studies, and that it would be interesting in future research to learn how actual behaviour is influenced by personal narratives.

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As the introduction of automated vehicles (AVs) into road traffic accelerates, establishing user acceptance is increasingly crucial. User comfort, largely influenced by the AVs' driving styles, is one of the essential factors influencing acceptance. This video submission provides a methodological overview of a qualitative interview study, which used a Wizard-of-Oz method to investigate participants' comfort levels during automated driving on real roads. By understanding the specific comfort experiences of both older and younger users, we can inform the design process for AVs, thereby enhancing user experience and facilitating broader acceptance of technology across a more diverse and inclusive demographic spectrum.

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When making trips in urban environments, cyclists lose time as they stop and idle at signalized intersections. The main objective of this study was to show how augmenting the situational awareness of traffic signal controllers, using observations from moving sensor platforms, can enable prioritization of cyclists and reduce lost time within the control cycle in an effective way. We investigated the potential of using observations from connected autonomous vehicles (CAVs) as a source of new information, using a revised vehicle-actuated controller. This controller exploits CAV-generated observations of cyclists to optimize the control for cyclists. The results from a simulation study indicated that with a low CAV penetration rate, prioritizing cyclists by tracking reduced cyclist delays and stops, even with a small field of view. As the delay of car directions were not taken into account in this study, the average car delay increased considerably with an increasing number of cyclists. Future work is needed to optimize the control that balances the delays and stops of cyclists and cars.

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Understanding user's perception of service variability is essential to discern their overall perception of any type of (transport) service. We study the perception of waiting time variability for ride-hailing services. We carried out a stated preference survey in August 2021, yielding 936 valid responses. The respondents were faced with static pre-trip information on the expected waiting time, followed by the actually experienced waiting time for their selected alternative. We analyse this data by means of an instance-based learning (IBL) approach to evaluate how individuals respond to service performance variation and how this impacts their future decisions. Different novel specifications of memory fading, captured by the IBL approach, are tested to uncover which describes the user behaviour best. Additionally, existing and new specification of inertia (habit) are tested. Our model outcomes reveal that the perception of unexpected waiting time is within the expected range of 2–3 times the value-of-time. Travellers seem to place a higher reward on an early departure compared to a penalty for a late departure of equal magnitude. A cancelled service, after having made a booking, results in significant disutility for the passenger and a strong motivation to shift to a different provider. Considering memory decay, our results show that the most recent experience is by far the most relevant for the next decision, with memories fading quickly in importance. The role of inertia seems to gain importance with each additional consecutive choice for the same option, but then resetting back to zero following a shift in behaviour.

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As digitalisation is making its way into public transport (PT) services, policy approaches to ensure that such services remain inclusive are at best fragmented, at worst inexistant. This study pieces together existing initiatives and lessons learnt in the transport sector itself, and takes inspiration from other fields with a more mature understanding of digitalisation. We interviewed twenty-two experts working either in the PT sector or in other sectors such as healthcare and public administration to present an overview of possible measures to foster inclusion in PT in the digital era. We used both triangulation and a two-step respondent validation process to improve results’ trustworthiness. We conclude that there is no one-size-fits-all, but a series of complementary strategies to address digital inequality. A focus on an inclusive design from the start, courses, showing the added value of digital tools, specialist products and non-digital alternatives are building blocks to foster a more inclusive PT system in the era of digitalisation. The role of the public transport staff ought not to be underestimated in digital transformations. Importantly, securing the issue of unequal access to public transport due to digitalisation at a decision-making level is essential. Nevertheless, there is only so much that the transport sector can do. Tackling more systemic issues that often underlie digital barriers like poverty and low literacy is crucially relevant. While the present study was conducted in the Netherlands, the presented measures can be applied in other countries by stakeholders working on inclusive digital transformations in (public) transport services.

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Digitalisation in public transport has become pervasive over the past decade, especially in urban areas. While it benefits many, it also leaves some behind. Previous research shows that older adults, people with a lower education level, people with impairments and people with a migration background are more likely to be negatively impacted by digitalisation in transport services. In order to uncover mechanisms behind digital inequality in public transport, we interviewed 39 people belonging to these groups. They experience difficulties due to low digital skills, not using digital technologies on-the-go, not possessing the right devices and due to a complex design of technologies, among others. Many participants reap some benefits of digitalisation though. In fact, individuals can experience benefits on one aspect and difficulties on another. Nevertheless, experiencing difficulties with digitalisation does not necessarily equal to exclusion from public transport thanks to coping strategies like support from one's social network. Still, many coping strategies come with pitfalls such as hidden work and costs. Digital technologies facilitate a self-service approach that paradoxically makes some people more dependent on others. This study can support practitioners and researchers in developing a better understanding of the (sometimes insidious) consequences of technological innovations on individuals.

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Data-driven approaches are helpful for quantitative justification and performance evaluation. The Netherlands has made notable strides in establishing a national protocol for bicycle traffic counting and collecting GPS cycling data through initiatives such as the Talking Bikes program. This article addresses the need for a generic framework to harness cycling data and extract relevant insights. Specifically, it focuses on the application of estimating average bicycle delays at signalized intersections, as this is an essential variable in assessing the performance of the transportation system. This study evaluates machine learning (ML)-based approaches using GPS cycling data. The dataset provides comprehensive yet incomplete information regarding one million bicycle rides annually across The Netherlands. These ML models, including random forest, k-nearest neighbor, support vector regression, extreme gradient boosting, and neural networks, are developed to estimate bicycle delays. The study demonstrates the feasibility of estimating bicycle delays using sparse GPS cycling data combined with publicly accessible information, such as weather information and intersection complexity, leveraging the burden of understanding local traffic conditions. It emphasizes the potential of data-driven approaches to inform traffic management, bicycle policy, and infrastructure development.@en

In mobility panels, respondents may use a strategy of soft-refusal to lower their response burden, e.g. by claiming they did not leave their house even though they actually did. Soft-refusal leads to poor data quality and may complicate research, e.g. focused on people with actual low mobility. In this study we develop three methods to detect the presence of soft-refusal in mobility panels, based on respectively (observed and predicted) out-of-home activity, straightlining and speeding. For each indicator, we explore the relation with reported immobility and panel attrition. The results show that speeding and straightlining in a questionnaire is strongly related to reported immobility in a (self-reported) travel diary. Using a binary logit model, respondents who are predicted to leave their home but report no trips are identified as possible soft refusers. To reveal different patterns of soft-refusal and assess how these patterns influence the probability to drop out of the panel, a latent transition model is estimated. The results show four behavioral patterns with respect to soft-refusal ranging from a large class of reliable respondents who score positive on all three soft-refusal indicators, to a small ‘high-risk’ class of respondents who score poorly on all indicators. This ‘high-risk’ group also reports the highest immobility and has the highest attrition rate. The model also shows that respondents who do not drop out of the panel, tend to stay in the same behavioral pattern over time. The amount of soft-refusal expressed by a respondent therefore seems to be a stable behavioral trait.

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On-demand mobility services (FLEX) are often proposed as a solution for the first/last mile problem. We study the potential of using FLEX to improve train station access by means of a three-step sequential stated preference survey. We compare FLEX with the bicycle, car and public transport for accessing two alternative train stations. We estimate a joint access mode and train station choice model. Estimating a latent class choice model with different nesting structures, we uncover four distinct segments in the population. Two segments (∼50%) with a lower Willingness-to-Pay seem to be more likely to take-up FLEX. Ex-urban car drivers seem to be the most likely segment to adopt FLEX, showing great, since members of this segment are currently frequent users of the private car. Our case study also shows that while FLEX competes primarily with public transport when accessing local stations, it competes primarily with car for reaching distant stations.

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On-demand mobility services are promising to revolutionise urban travel, but preliminary studies are showing they may actually increase total vehicle miles travelled, worsening road congestion in cities. In this study, we assess the demand for on-demand mobility services in urban areas, using a stated preference survey, to understand the potential impact of introducing on-demand services on the current modal split. The survey was carried out in the Netherlands and offered respondents a choice between bike, car, public transport and on-demand services. 1,063 valid responses are analysed with a multinomial logit and a latent class choice model. By means of the latter, we uncover four distinctive groups of travellers based on the observed choice behaviour. The majority of the sample, the Sharing-ready cyclists (55%), are avid cyclists and do not see on-demand mobility as an alternative for making urban trips. Two classes, Tech-ready individuals (27%) and Flex-ready individuals (9%) would potentially use on-demand services: the former is fairly time-sensitive and would thus use on-demand service if they were sufficiently fast. The latter is highly cost-sensitive, and would therefore use the service primarily if it is cheap. The fourth class, Flex-sceptic individuals (9%) shows very limited potential for using on-demand services.

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In recent years, the e-bike has become increasingly popular in many European countries. With higher speeds and less effort needed, the e-bike is a promising mode of transport to many, and it is considered a good alternative for certain car trips by policy-makers and planners. A major limitation of many studies that investigate such substitution effects of the e-bike, is their reliance on cross-sectional data which do not allow an assessment of within-person travel mode changes. As a consequence, there is currently no consensus about the e-bike’s potential to replace car trips. Furthermore, there has been little research focusing on heterogeneity among e-bike users. In this respect, it is likely that different groups exist that use the e-bike for different reasons (e.g. leisure vs commute travel), something which will also influence possible substitution patterns. This paper contributes to the literature in two ways: (1) it presents a statistical analysis to assess the extent to which e-bike trips are substituting trips by other travel modes based on longitudinal data; (2) it reveals different user groups among the e-bike population. A Random Intercept Cross-Lagged Panel Model is estimated using five waves of data from the Netherlands Mobility Panel. Furthermore, a Latent Class Analysis is performed using data from the Dutch national travel survey. Results show that, when using longitudinal data, the substitution effects between e-bike and the competing travel modes of car and public transport are not as significant as reported in earlier research. In general, e-bike trips only significantly reduce conventional bicycle trips in the Netherlands, which can be regarded an unwanted effect from a policy-viewpoint. For commuting, the e-bike also substitutes car trips. Furthermore, results show that there are five different user groups with their own distinct behaviour patterns and socio-demographic characteristics. They also show that groups that use the e-bike primarily for commuting or education are growing at a much higher rate than groups that mainly use the e-bike for leisure and shopping purposes.

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Introduction: It has been estimated that physical inactivity accounts for roughly 10% of premature mortality globally in any given year. Active travel (walking and cycling) has been promoted as an effective means to stimulate physical activity. However, many of the available studies on the relation between active travel and health are based on cross-sectional data and are therefore unable to determine the direction of causation. This study aims to unravel the bidirectional relationships between active travel measured by the active modes bicycle, e-bike and walking, on the one hand, and two health outcomes, namely body-mass index (BMI) and self-rated health (SRH), on the other. Methods: To provide an initial assessment of the relationship between active travel and the two health outcomes, multivariate regression models are estimated. To study the direction of causation, Random-Intercept Cross-Lagged Panel Models (RI-CLPM) are estimated using three waves of the Netherlands Mobility Panel (MPN). Active travel is measured as travelled distances and trips with the bicycle, e-bike and walking. BMI is calculated based on weight and height, SRH is measured with a single question. Results: The regression models show that a higher BMI and lower SRH are associated with less walking and cycling, while being obese is associated with more e-bike use. The results of the RI-CLPM indicate that cycling distance has a positive effect on SRH. Furthermore, walking distance has a negative effect on BMI and BMI has a negative effect on bicycle use among people without obesity. No relationships between BMI and active travel are found for people with obesity. Conclusion: The results highlight the importance of longitudinal analyses when estimating the relationship between active travel and health. In addition, the results suggest that, relatively speaking, the increasing overweight and obesity rates may result in a decrease of bicycle use.

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Digitalisation in transport services offers many benefits for travellers. However, not everyone is willing or able to follow the new, more or less formal requirements digitalisation has brought along. Existing reviews on the intersection between Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs) and mobility cover a range of vantage points, but the perspective of how various levels of engagement with digital technologies affect access and navigation of transport services has not been addressed yet. In communication science, studying disparities in terms of ICT appropriation and their consequences is known as digital inequality research. This review paper aims at shedding light on what digital inequality in the context of transport services consists of and what its consequences are. To do so, we define and use a conceptual framework for the analysis of digital inequality in transport services. The review of the twenty-five papers, as selected in our systematic literature search, shows that there is a burgeoning interest in this topic. Vulnerability to digitalisation in transport services exists along dimensions of age, income, education, ethnicity, gender and geographical region. We find that motivations and material access get more attention than digital skills and effective usage. Nevertheless, literature acknowledges that having material access to technology does not mean that people benefit from what technology has to offer. Furthermore, the characteristics of ICTs impact one’s possibilities to access digital technologies, such as how user-friendly a technology is. Data-driven and algorithm-based decision-making present a particularly pernicious form of digital exclusion from transport services. As digital technologies are progressively becoming indispensable to navigate the world of transport services, low levels of digital engagement may create a new layer of transport disadvantage, possibly on top of existing ones. Although digitalisation can be part of the solution to transport disadvantage, it can also be part of the problem. With network effects at play, what might start as a relative disadvantage may turn into an absolute disadvantage. Given the nascent state of research on digital inequality in transport services, much remains to be understood. Suggested research avenues include mechanisms of digital exclusion from transport services, the contribution of digital inequality to transport disadvantage, and importantly, solutions to mitigate its impacts.

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Simulation studies suggest that pooled on-demand services (also referred to as ridesplitting or shared ride-hailing/ridesourcing services) have the potential to bring large benefits to urban areas with little time loss for their users. However, the large majority of on-demand requests in existing services are for individual rides. In this study, we investigate to what extent fare discounts, time losses, and the (un)willingness to share the ride with (different numbers of) other passengers play a role in the decision of individuals to share rides. To this end, we designed a stated preference study, and simulated different scenarios based on an estimated discrete choice Mixed Logit model. We found that the share of individuals who are willing to share their rides depends primarily on the time-cost trade-off they encounter, rather than on the disutility stemming from pooling rides per se. We also found that the disutility of having one or two extra passengers is constant regardless of the trip length, whereas it further increases with trip distance in the event that one shares the ride with four additional passengers. The depicted scenarios show the impacts that larger/smaller time-cost trade-offs and different number of individuals in a ride would have on the shares of individual versus pooled on-demand services. These insights are relevant to on-demand service providers who wish to offer pooled services and to transportation authorities who may be interested in internalising the externalities stemming from the increase in vehicle miles travelled related with individual rides.@en

The uptake of on-demand services is increasing rapidly all over the world. However, the market share of their pooled version (ridesharing, e.g., UberPOOL or LyftLine) is still low, despite its potential in addressing the mobility challenges that dense urban cities are facing. In this research, we analyse user preferences towards pooled on-demand services regarding their time-reliability-cost trade-offs. We study, via stated preference experiments, the value of time (VOT) and value of reliability (VOR) of the different trip stages (waiting stage, in-vehicle stage, and transfer stage when combined with line-based public transport). We target urban Dutch individuals (N = 1006), and address commuting and leisure trips. Results show in-vehicle VOT for pooled on-demand services to amount to 7.88–10.80 €/h. These values are somewhat higher than known values of traditional public transport. We also find waiting VOT (both before the trip and during the transfer stage) to be lower than values previously reported in literature. In general, we find VOR to be lower than VOT: the reliability ratio (VOR/VOT ratio) for both the waiting stage and the in-vehicle stage being around 0.5. In order to understand different preferences, we also estimate latent class choice models. The analysis shows that the main difference between classes pertains to the overall time-cost and reliability-cost trade-offs (VOT and VOR values) rather than in different valuations of the reliability ratio. In addition to serving as input for demand forecasting models such as macroscopic static assignment and agent-based simulation models, our findings can support service providers in developing their strategy when designing pooled on-demand services.@en

This paper studies the relationship between trip chain complexity and daily travel behaviour of travellers. While trip chain complexity is conventionally investigated between travel modes, our scope is the more aggregated level of a person’s activity-travel pattern. Using data from the Netherlands Mobility Panel, a latent class cluster analysis was performed to group people with similar mode choice behaviour in distinct mobility pattern classes. All trip chains were assigned to both a travel mode and the mobility pattern class of the traveller. Subsequently, differences in trip chain complexity distributions were analysed between travel modes and between mobility pattern classes. Results indicate considerable differences between travel modes, particularly between multimodal and unimodal trip chains, but also between the unimodal travel modes car, bicycle, walking and public transport trip chains. No substantial differences in trip chain complexity were found between mobility pattern classes. Independently of the included travel modes, the distributions of trip chain complexity degrees were similar across mobility pattern classes. This means that personal circumstances such as the number of working hours or household members are not systematically translated into specific mobility patterns.

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Simulation studies suggest that pooled on-demand services (also referred to as Demand Responsive Transport, ridesharing, shared ride-hailing or shared ridesourcing services) have the potential to bring large benefits to urban areas while inducing limited time losses for their users. However, in reality, the large majority of users request individual rides (and not pooled rides) in existing on-demand services, leading to increases in motorised vehicle miles travelled. In this study, we investigate to what extent fare discounts, additional travel time, and the (un)willingness to share the ride with (different numbers of) other passengers play a role in the decision of individuals to share rides. To this end, we design a stated preference study targeting Dutch urban individuals. In our research, we (1) disentangle the sharing aspect from related time–cost trade-offs (e.g. detours), (2) investigate preference heterogeneity regarding the studied attributes and identify distinct market segments, and (3) simulate scenarios to understand the impact of the obtained parameters in the breakdown between individual and pooled services. We find that less than one third of respondents have strong preferences against sharing their rides. Also, we find that different market segments vary not only in their values of the willingness to share, but also in how they perceive this willingness to share (per-ride or proportional to the in-vehicle time). Further, the scenario analysis demonstrates that the share of individuals who are willing to share rides depends primarily on the time–cost trade-offs, rather than on the disutility stemming from pooling rides per se.

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