Automated driving developments should be considered when making decisions about investments in physical and digital infrastructure. This paper proposes four scenarios for automated driving developments in the Netherlands in 2040 and 2060 taking into account uncertainties regarding future penetration rates, the level of connectivity, the operational design domain, and the expected impacts of automated driving: 1) Late transition, 2) Automated vehicles on main roads, 3) Car-topia, and 4) Share-topia. To derive these scenarios, an extended switchboard method is introduced in which multiple driving forces for automated driving can be varied. The main driving forces were identified based on expert surveys. For each scenario, a modelling approach is used to compute the impact of automated driving on vehicle kilometres driven and congestion. The extended switchboard method offered more flexibility than existing scenario methods. The model-based impact assessment provided more conservative and probably more accurate insights into the expected impacts of automated driving on vehicle kilometres driven and congestion than expert estimates from the literature. The results show that in all scenarios automation leads to an increase in the number of trips, vehicle kilometres driven and congestion. In the scenarios with autonomous vehicles, congestion is expected to increase up to 17%. The higher the penetration rates of connected automated vehicles, the smaller the increase in congestion (1.5%-11%). The results indicate that investments in digital infrastructure are needed to prevent capacity reduction due to autonomous driving. The scenarios “car-topia” and “share-topia” may require additional physical infrastructure on motorways and regional roads, and/or the implementation of demand management strategies.

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As a two-sided digital platform, ride-sourcing has disruptively penetrated the mobility market. Ride-sourcing companies provide door-to-door transport services by connecting passengers with independent service suppliers labelled as “driver-partners”. Once a passenger submits a ride request, the platform attempts to match the request with a nearby available driver. Drivers have the freedom to accept or decline ride requests. The consequences of this decision, which is made at the operation level, have remained largely unknown in the literature. Using agent-based simulation modelling on the realistic case study of the city of Amsterdam, the Netherlands, we study the impacts of drivers’ ride acceptance behaviour, estimated from unique empirical data, on the ride-sourcing system where the platform applies regular and surge pricing strategies, and riders may revoke their requests and reject the received offers. Furthermore, we delve into the implications of various supply–demand intensities, a centralised fleet (i.e., mandatory acceptance on each ride request) versus a decentralised fleet (i.e., ride acceptance decision by each driver), ride acceptance rates, and surge pricing settings. We find that the ride acceptance decision of ride-sourcing drivers has far-reaching consequences for system performance in terms of passengers’ waiting time, driver's revenue, operating costs, and profit, all of which are highly dependent on the ratio between demand and supply. As the system undergoes a transition from undersupplied (i.e., real-time demand locally exceeds available drivers) to balanced and then oversupplied state (i.e., more available drivers than real-time demand), ride acceptance decisions result in higher income inequality. A high acceptance rate among drivers may lead to more rides, but it does not necessarily increase their profit. Surge pricing is found to be asymmetrically in favour of all the parties despite adverse effects on the demand side due to higher trip fare. This study offers insights into both the aggregated and disaggregated levels of ride-sourcing system operations and outlines a series of transport policy and practice implications in cities that offer such ride-sourcing systems.

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A substantial number of vehicles nowadays are equipped with adaptive cruise control (ACC), which adjusts the vehicle speed automatically. However, experiments have found that commercial ACC systems which only detect the direct leader amplify the propagating disturbances in the platoon. This can cause severe traffic congestion when the number of ACC-equipped vehicles increases. Therefore, an ACC system which also considers the second leader further downstream is required. Such a system enables the vehicle to achieve multi-anticipation and hence ensure better platoon stability. Nevertheless, measurements collected from the second leader may be comparatively inaccurate given the limitations of current state-of-the-art sensor technology. This study adopts deep reinforcement learning to develop ACC controllers that besides the input from the first leader exploits the additional information obtained from the second leader, albeit noisy. The simulation experiment demonstrates that even under the influence of noisy measurements, the multi-leader ACC platoon shows smaller disturbance and jerk amplitudes than the one-leader ACC platoon, indicating improved string stability and ride comfort. Practical takeaways are twofold: first, the proposed method can be used to further develop multi-leader ACC systems. Second, even noisy data from the second leader can help stabilize traffic, which makes such systems viable in practice.

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Drivers initiate a discretionary lane change when they perceive an anticipated improvement in their own driving condition from moving to another lane. However, such a lane change can slow down other vehicles on the target lane, and even worse initiate a disturbance. In this work, we argue that the blocking effect triggered by individual lane changes results from the heterogeneity in the desired speeds of vehicles, and thus using desired speed information of vehicles when regulating lane-changing decisions can improve traffic efficiency. In doing so, our work also exemplifies the usefulness of incorporating user preferences into control decisions. The proposed lane guidance system uses an optimization-based approach to update the target range of desired speeds on each lane in real time, and accordingly recommends individual lane changes. The control system coordinates the lane-changing decisions at the link level, for which the road stretch is subdivided into multiple sections that are controlled independently. We evaluate the performance of the lane guidance system in micro-simulation, for different network demands and desired speed distributions. The results highlight that the proposed approach utilizing the desired speed preferences of drivers results in positive efficiency gains for most traffic compositions in free flow. Moreover, the highest gains are expected in medium to high demand, and when the traffic composition includes a higher proportion of vehicles desiring higher speeds. The gains also increase when the desired speeds of vehicles that want to drive fast and those that want to drive slower are more separated.

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In the present study, we explored the influence of ride experience in automated minibuses (AmBs) on transport mode choice that includes the automated shuttles as well as conventional transport options (car, bus and bicycle) on the first-/ last-mile stage of rail trips. We used the case study of the connection between Brandevoort train station and the newly developing working and living area in Helmond (the Netherlands) where an AmB was tested in the February-March period of 2021. We conducted a two-wave stated preference experiment wherein data was gathered both before and after the participants had a test ride in the AmB. The results of the joint hybrid mixed logit model indicate a clear preference towards flexible-service AmBs, particularly in relation to travel time and costs. While preferences for less favoured regular-service AmBs experienced a noteworthy shift in travel time and costs, waiting and walking time parameters influenced by participants' ride experience in this pilot and by prior ride experience from other pilots. This reinforces the idea that the ride experience in AmBs even in a short pilot trial like the one conducted in Helmond has a significant impact on preferences for AmBs in comparison with car, bus and bicycle alternatives. Hence, panel studies can provide a more comprehensive understanding of how attitudes and preferences of potential users evolve over time.

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The use of partially automated driving systems raises concerns about potential responsibility issues, posing risk to the system safety, acceptance, and adoption of these technologies. The concept of meaningful human control has emerged in response to the responsibility gap problem, requiring the fulfillment of two conditions, tracking and tracing. While this concept has provided important philosophical and design insights on automated driving systems, there is currently little knowledge on how meaningful human control relates to subjective experiences of actual users of these systems. To address this gap, our study aimed to investigate the alignment between the degree of meaningful human control and drivers' perceptions of safety and trust in a real-world partially automated driving system. We utilized previously collected data from interviews with Tesla "Full Self-Driving"(FSD) Beta users, investigating the alignment between the user perception and how well the system was tracking the users' reasons. We found that tracking of users' reasons for driving tasks (such as safe maneuvers) correlated with perceived safety and trust, albeit with notable exceptions. Surprisingly, failure to track lane changing and braking reasons was not necessarily associated with negative perceptions of safety. However, the failure of the system to track expected maneuvers in dangerous situations always resulted in low trust and perceived lack of safety. Overall, our analyses highlight alignment points but also possible discrepancies between perceived safety and trust on the one hand, and meaningful human control on the other hand. Our results can help the developers of automated driving technology to design systems under meaningful human control and are perceived as safe and trustworthy.

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Automated vehicles (AVs) may require the implementation of an external human-machine interface (eHMI) to communicate their intentions to human-driven vehicles. The optimal placement of the eHMI, either on the AV itself or as part of the road infrastructure, remains undetermined. The current driving simulator study investigated the effect of eHMI positioning on human driving behaviour, during the approach and execution of right turns at T-intersections. Forty-three participants drove under three conditions: absence of eHMI, eHMI on the AV (eHMIv), and eHMI integrated into the infrastructure (eHMIi). Participants encountered AVs that either yielded or did not yield to their vehicles. The results regarding the placement of the eHMI showed that both concepts are advantageous, but for different reasons. eHMIv was appreciated because implicit and explicit communication are congruent, although the AV must first be visually identified to respond to it. eHMIi was appreciated because a familiar cue is always at a known location in the environment; as a result, participants braked earlier for the intersection and came less close to the AV (which can be interpreted as a safety advantage or an efficiency disadvantage). Although there are limitations to the current driving simulator study, this research provides important insights into the fundamental question of how information placement affects drivers’ visual attention demands and driving behaviour, topics that are important in view of the development of future cities.

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Once trusted, automated vehicles (AVs) will gradually appear in urban areas. Such a transition is an opportunity in transport planning to control undesired impacts and possibly mitigate congestion at a time when both conventional vehicles (CVs) and AVs coexist. This paper deals with the complex transport decision problem of designing part of the network that is exclusive for AVs through a nonlinear programming model. The objective function minimises the costs of travel times where vehicles circulate under user equilibrium. The model evaluates the benefits of having an AVs-dedicated infrastructure and the associated costs from the detouring of CVs. Three planning strategies are explored: incremental, long-term and hybrid planning. The first creates a subnetwork evolving incrementally over time. The second reversely designs a subnetwork from the optimal solution obtained at a ratio of 90% AVs. The third limits the incremental planning towards that optimal long-term solution. The model is applied to the city of Delft, in the Netherlands. Two scenarios are analysed, with and without AV-dedicated roads, at several AV penetration rates. We find that implementing dedicated roads for AVs reduces the overall costs and congestion up to 16%. However, CV detouring is inevitable at later network stages, increasing the total distance travelled (up to 8%) and congestion in the surroundings of AV subnetworks. Concerning the planning strategies, incremental planning is appropriate for starting in the initial stages and is the strategy that most tackles CV detouring. The hybrid or the long-term strategies are more suitable to be applied after a ratio of 50% AVs, and the hybrid planning is the strategy that most reduces delay. @en

This study utilized Virtual Reality (VR) experiments to investigate pedestrian-autonomous vehicle interaction in shared spaces. In the VR experiment, pedestrians attempt to cross the road under different conditions, including the presence of another pedestrian, different external Human-Machine-Interfaces, AV driving styles, and road conditions. We employed an innovative VR setup that enabled two pedestrians to interact in real time with physical movements within an immersive VR environment. Overall, we found that the presence of multiple pedestrians significantly influenced pedestrian movement dynamics during road crossing. Additionally, the relative standing position had a significant impact on the distant pedestrians regarding time before crossing and vehicle-gazing behavior. While previous studies predominantly focused on pedestrian-AV interaction with a single pedestrian, this study takes an important step forward in terms of theory, methods, and relevance by considering interactions between multiple pedestrians and AVs. The findings establish a basis for further exploration of pedestrian-AV interaction in shared space.

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Increasing attention is being paid to intersection signal control with cooperative platoons. Assuming platoons being formed, such platoons cannot only improve the intersection capacity but also minimize the number of control units, especially when dedicated connected and automated vehicle (CAV) lanes are considered. However, the platoon formation process is often neglected, especially for lane-changing and overtaking maneuvers in mixed traffic. This may jeopardize the potential of signal control with platoons. This article proposes a platoon formation algorithm that computes the optimal lane, platoon sequence, and speed profiles of CAVs under the requirement of the central traffic controller. The algorithm is designed for mixed traffic conditions and hence the performance of human-driven vehicles is also considered. A mixed integer linear program model is formulated to minimize the deviation from the desired platoon configuration and the disturbance to overall traffic under any arbitrary initial condition. Numerical experiments are designed to test the effectiveness and the computational performance of the proposed algorithm. Results show that CAVs with signal control can form platoons with rational motion. Besides, the platoon penetration significantly affects platooning feasibility, while the platoon length does not. This suggests that CAVs can form long platoons at intersections to improve traffic throughput.

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The burgeoning navigation services using digital maps provide great convenience to drivers. However, there are sometimes anomalies in the lane rendering map images, which might mislead human drivers and result in unsafe driving. To accurately and effectively detect the anomalies, this paper transforms lane rendering image anomaly detection into a classification problem and proposes a four-phase pipeline consisting of data pre-processing, self-supervised pre-training with the masked image modeling (MiM) method, customized fine-tuning using cross-entropy loss with label smoothing, and post-processing to tackle it using state-of-the-art deep learning techniques, especially the Transformer models. Various experiments verify the effectiveness of the proposed pipeline. The proposed pipeline can deliver superior lane rendering image anomaly detection performance, and especially, the self-supervised pre-training with MiM can greatly improve the detection accuracy while significantly reducing the total training time, e.g, Swin Transformer with Uniform Masking as self-supervised pretraining (Swin-Trans-UM) obtained better accuracy at 94.77% and better Area Under The Curve (AUC) at 0.9743 compared with the pure Swin Transformer without pre-training (Swin-Trans) whose accuracy is 94.01% AUC is 0.9498, and the fine-tuning epochs reduced to 41 from original 280. Ablation study further regarding techniques to alleviate the data imbalance between normal and abnormal instances further enhances the model performance. @en

Dedicated Lanes (DLs) have been proposed as a potential alternative for the deployment of Connected and Automated Vehicles (CAVs) to facilitate platooning and increase motorway capacity. However, the impact of the presence and utilization policy of such a lane on drivers’ preference to use automation and their behaviour has not yet been thoroughly investigated. In this study, a driving simulator experiment is conducted, where participants drive a CAV in the presence of a DL with different utilization policies. Drivers have the possibility to choose between driving in an automated mode or in a manual mode. In automated mode they could adjust the driving speed and time headway and initiate automated lane changes. Two utilization policies were examined: mandatory versus optional use of DLs when driving in an automated mode. The impact of the presence and utilization policy of the DL on drivers’ preference to use automation and their behaviour in car-following and lane changing are investigated. The study found that while the presence of a DL does not increase drivers’ preference for automation use, it encourages drivers to utilize the DL more when the utilization policy is mandatory (i.e., drivers can only use automation mode when driving on this lane). Furthermore, drivers are more conservative in automated mode and when driving in mixed traffic. However, they perform closer car-following and merge into smaller gaps when driving on DLs which on one hand can increase the capacity of the DLs, but on the other hand can increase the risk of collisions. These results are useful for road operators, and in setting-up a more realistically traffic simulation studies.

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Electric mobility hubs (eHUBS) are locations where multiple shared electric modes including electric cars and e-bikes are available. To assess their potential to reduce private car use, it is important to investigate to what extent people would switch to eHUBS modes after their introduction. Moreover, people may adapt their behaviour differently depending on their current travel mode. This study is based on stated preference data collected in Amsterdam. We analysed the data using mixed logit models. We found that users of different modes not only have varied general preferences for different shared modes but also have different sensitivity for attributes such as travel time and cost. Public transport users are more likely to switch to eHUBS modes than car users. People who bike and walk have strong inertia, but the percentage choosing eHUBS modes doubles when the trip distance is longer (5 or 10 km).

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Ride-sourcing drivers, as individual service suppliers, can freely adopt their own relocation strategies, including waiting, cruising freely, or following the platform recommendations. These decisions substantially impact the balance between supply and demand, and consequently affect system performance. We conducted a stated choice experiment to study the searching behaviour of ride-sourcing drivers and examine novel policies. A unique dataset of 576 ride-sourcing drivers working in the US was collected and a choice modelling approach was used to estimate the effects of multiple existing and hypothetical attributes. The results suggest that ride-sourcing drivers’ relocation strategies vary considerably between different drivers groups. Surge pricing significantly stimulates drivers to head toward the designated areas. However, the distance between the driver’s location and surge or high-demand areas demotivates them from following the platform repositioning recommendations. We discuss the implications of our findings for various platform policies on real-time information sharing and platform repositioning guidance.

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Intersections are critical bottlenecks within urban transportation networks. Current models for simulating two-dimensional (2D) vehicular movements at intersections are met with limitations in accurately representing complex interactions and capturing vehicle dynamics. Accordingly, this paper proposes a novel microsimulation framework for trajectory planning and vehicular control at intersections. The model considers vehicle dynamics and control variables, such as acceleration and steering angle, and releases the popular assumption that there is full knowledge sharing or cooperation among vehicles at intersections. These features make the proposed framework more realistic compared to previous microsimulation attempts and applicable to traffic flow and environmental impact assessment studies. In addition, it efficiently operates in realtime for multiple vehicles, overcoming the limitations of offline methods. Moreover, the model is capable of accounting for driver/vehicle detection range, reaction time, and perception and prediction inaccuracies, which enhances its suitability for safety assessments. The evaluation in several scenarios indicates the ability of the proposed framework in realtime planning and following realistic and consistent 2D paths while avoiding collisions with other vehicles.

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Detecting abnormal driving behavior is critical for road traffic safety and the evaluation of drivers' behavior. With the advancement of machine learning (ML) algorithms and the accumulation of naturalistic driving data, many ML models have been adopted for abnormal driving behavior detection. Most existing ML-based detectors rely on (fully) supervised ML methods, which require substantial labeled data. However, ground truth labels are not always available in the real world, and labeling large amounts of data is tedious. Thus, there is a need to explore unsupervised or semi-supervised methods to make the anomaly detection process more feasible and efficient. To fill this research gap, this study analyzes large-scale real-world data revealing several abnormal driving behaviors (e.g., sudden acceleration, rapid lane-changing) and develops a Hierarchical Extreme Learning Machines (HELM) based semi-supervised ML method using partly labeled data to accurately detect the identified abnormal driving behaviors. Moreover, previous ML-based approaches predominantly utilize basic vehicle motion features (such as velocity and acceleration) to label and detect abnormal driving behaviors, while this study seeks to introduce Surrogate Safety Measures (SSMs) as the input features for ML models to improve the detection performance. Results from extensive experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed semi-supervised ML model with the introduced SSMs serving as important features. The proposed semi-supervised ML method outperforms other baseline semi-supervised or unsupervised methods regarding various metrics, e.g., delivering the best accuracy at 99.58% and the best F-1 measure at 0.9913. The ablation study further highlights the significance of SSMs for advancing detection performance.@en

The burgeoning navigation services using digital maps provide great convenience to drivers. Nevertheless, the presence of anomalies in lane rendering map images occasionally introduces potential hazards, as such anomalies can be misleading to human drivers and consequently contribute to unsafe driving conditions. In response to this concern and to accurately and effectively detect the anomalies, this paper transforms lane rendering image anomaly detection into a classification problem and proposes a four-phase pipeline consisting of data pre-processing, self-supervised pre-training with the masked image modeling (MiM) method, customized fine-tuning using cross-entropy based loss with label smoothing, and post-processing to tackle it leveraging state-of-the-art deep learning techniques, especially those involving Transformer models. Various experiments verify the effectiveness of the proposed pipeline. Results indicate that the proposed pipeline exhibits superior performance in lane rendering image anomaly detection, and notably, the self-supervised pre-training with MiM can greatly enhance the detection accuracy while significantly reducing the total training time. For instance, employing the Swin Transformer with Uniform Masking as self-supervised pretraining (Swin-Trans-UM) yielded a heightened accuracy at 94.77% and an improved Area Under The Curve (AUC) score of 0.9743 compared with the pure Swin Transformer without pre-training (Swin-Trans) with an accuracy of 94.01% and an AUC of 0.9498. The fine-tuning epochs were dramatically reduced to 41 from the original 280. In conclusion, the proposed pipeline, with its incorporation of self-supervised pre-training using MiM and other advanced deep learning techniques, emerges as a robust solution for enhancing the accuracy and efficiency of lane rendering image anomaly detection in digital navigation systems.@en

Detecting abnormal driving behavior is critical for road traffic safety and the evaluation of drivers' behavior. With the advancement of machine learning (ML) algorithms and the accumulation of naturalistic driving data, many ML models have been adopted for abnormal driving behavior detection. Most existing ML-based detectors rely on (fully) supervised ML methods, which require substantial labeled data. However, ground truth labels are not always available in the real world, and labeling large amounts of data is tedious. Thus, there is a need to explore unsupervised or semi-supervised methods to make the anomaly detection process more feasible and efficient. To fill this research gap, this study analyzes large-scale real-world data revealing several abnormal driving behaviors (e.g., sudden acceleration, rapid lane-changing) and develops a Hierarchical Extreme Learning Machines (HELM) based semi-supervised ML method using partly labeled data to accurately detect the identified abnormal driving behaviors. Moreover, previous ML-based approaches predominantly utilize basic vehicle motion features (such as velocity and acceleration) to label and detect abnormal driving behaviors, while this study seeks to introduce Surrogate Safety Measures (SSMs) as the input features for ML models to improve the detection performance. Results from extensive experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed semi-supervised ML model with the introduced SSMs serving as important features. The proposed semi-supervised ML method outperforms other baseline semi-supervised or unsupervised methods regarding various metrics, e.g., delivering the best accuracy at 99.58% and the best F-1 measure at 0.9913. The ablation study further highlights the significance of SSMs for advancing detection performance. @en

The gradual deployment of automated vehicles (AVs) results in mixed traffic where AVs will interact with human-driven vehicles (HDVs). Thus, social-aware motion planning and control while considering interactions with HDVs on the road is critical for AVs' deployment and safe driving under various maneuvers. Previous research mostly focuses on the trajectory planning of AVs using Model Predictive Control or other relevant methods, while seldom considering the integrated planning and control of AVs altogether to simplify the whole pipeline architecture. Furthermore, there are very limited studies on social-aware driving that makes AVs understandable and expected by human drivers, and none when it comes to the challenging maneuver of driving through roundabouts. To fill these research gaps, this paper develops an integrated social-aware planning and control algorithm for AVs' driving through roundabouts based on Driving Risk Field (DRF), Social Value Orientation (SVO), and Model Predictive Contouring Control (MPCC), i.e., DRF-SVO-MPCC. The proposed method is tested and verified with simulation on the open-sourced highway-env platform. Compared with the baseline method using purely Nonlinear Model Predictive Control, the DRF-SVO-MPCC can achieve better performance under various maneuvers of driving through roundabouts with and without surrounding HDVs.@en

The operation of automated vehicles (AVs) on shared roads requires attention concerning their interactions with vulnerable road users (VRUs), such as cyclists. This study investigates the safety of cyclists when they interact with an AV and compares it with their interaction with a conventional vehicle. Overall, 29 cyclists participated in a controlled field experiment consisting of interaction scenarios in which a vehicle approached the cyclist from behind. Four interaction scenarios were included: manual and automated following and manual and automated overtaking of the cyclist. The vehicle operated in all scenarios in a manual mode for safety reasons. However, before each ride, participants received information about the vehicle’s operation mode (automated or manual). The following attributes were considered: overtaking speed, overtaking lateral distance, following distance, and roadside objects. The objective and the subjective risks were evaluated in each scenario. The objective risk was assessed using the probabilistic driving risk field, and the subjective risk was assessed based on the cyclists’ selfreported risk values, cycling behavior, and their trust in AVs. The results show that automated and manual following have similar objective and subjective risks, while automated overtaking has a higher level of objective and subjective risks than manual overtaking. The results also show that a longer interaction time leads to an increase in cycling speed and a decrease in the lateral distance of the cyclist to the curb. Thus, we conclude that automated following is a safer option for short traveling distances, while for longer traveling distances, manual overtaking is preferred. Additionally, a short lateral distance from the cyclist when overtaking increases the subjective and objective risks.

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