Automated driving developments should be considered when making decisions about investments in physical and digital infrastructure. This paper proposes four scenarios for automated driving developments in the Netherlands in 2040 and 2060 taking into account uncertainties regarding future penetration rates, the level of connectivity, the operational design domain, and the expected impacts of automated driving: 1) Late transition, 2) Automated vehicles on main roads, 3) Car-topia, and 4) Share-topia. To derive these scenarios, an extended switchboard method is introduced in which multiple driving forces for automated driving can be varied. The main driving forces were identified based on expert surveys. For each scenario, a modelling approach is used to compute the impact of automated driving on vehicle kilometres driven and congestion. The extended switchboard method offered more flexibility than existing scenario methods. The model-based impact assessment provided more conservative and probably more accurate insights into the expected impacts of automated driving on vehicle kilometres driven and congestion than expert estimates from the literature. The results show that in all scenarios automation leads to an increase in the number of trips, vehicle kilometres driven and congestion. In the scenarios with autonomous vehicles, congestion is expected to increase up to 17%. The higher the penetration rates of connected automated vehicles, the smaller the increase in congestion (1.5%-11%). The results indicate that investments in digital infrastructure are needed to prevent capacity reduction due to autonomous driving. The scenarios “car-topia” and “share-topia” may require additional physical infrastructure on motorways and regional roads, and/or the implementation of demand management strategies.

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Objective: In this article, we investigated the effects of external human-machine interfaces (eHMIs) on pedestrians’ crossing intentions. Background: Literature suggests that the safety (i.e., not crossing when unsafe) and efficiency (i.e., crossing when safe) of pedestrians’ interactions with automated vehicles could increase if automated vehicles display their intention via an eHMI. Methods: Twenty-eight participants experienced an urban road environment from a pedestrian’s perspective using a head-mounted display. The behavior of approaching vehicles (yielding, nonyielding), vehicle size (small, medium, large), eHMI type (1. baseline without eHMI, 2. front brake lights, 3. Knightrider animation, 4. smiley, 5. text [WALK]), and eHMI timing (early, intermediate, late) were varied. For yielding vehicles, the eHMI changed from a nonyielding to a yielding state, and for nonyielding vehicles, the eHMI remained in its nonyielding state. Participants continuously indicated whether they felt safe to cross using a handheld button, and “feel-safe” percentages were calculated. Results: For yielding vehicles, the feel-safe percentages were higher for the front brake lights, Knightrider, smiley, and text, as compared with baseline. For nonyielding vehicles, the feel-safe percentages were equivalent regardless of the presence or type of eHMI, but larger vehicles yielded lower feel-safe percentages. The Text eHMI appeared to require no learning, contrary to the three other eHMIs. Conclusion: An eHMI increases the efficiency of pedestrian-AV interactions, and a textual display is regarded as the least ambiguous. Application: This research supports the development of automated vehicles that communicate with other road users.@en