The unprecedented resolution of a new 2D modeling approach greatly improves our understanding of how mangroves reduce flood risk.@en

The rapid degradation of ecosystems jeopardizes the services they provide. Among the most valuable of these services is protection of coastlines by shoreline ecological communities, such as coral reefs, mangroves and salt marshes. Currently, coastal protection potential of ecosystems is estimated primarily as a function of their spatial extent and type. The degree to which coastal protection depends on aspects of biodiversity within and across these ecosystems is, however, much less explored. Here we synthesize evidence from multiple sources to evaluate whether aspects of biodiversity may influence the degree of coastal protection afforded by coastal ecosystems. We discuss relevant biodiversity theory and the few studies that have investigated how species identity affects shoreline protection, as a first attempt to identify the aspects of biodiversity that are likely to be important in enhancing coastal protection efforts. This synthesis should empower ecologists, conservation scientists and practitioners to test for and then harness the unrealized, but high yield potential, of incorporating biodiversity into coastal defense planning.

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Vegetation in front of levees, dikes and seawalls can decrease wave energy and therefore contribute to the safety against flooding. However, wave damping predictions by vegetation are still inaccurate due to measurement and modelling uncertainties. Many studies focused on finding reliable predictive tools using scaled flume tests with vegetation mimics. Scaling down vegetation can however lead to discrepancies with realistic scales, known as scale errors. In this work scaled tests were conducted on 3D-printed elastic replicas of willow trees and compared with real-scale experiments. We identified differences in measured wave dissipation between the scaled hydraulic model (1:10) and its real-scale prototype with 5m high live willow trees under storm conditions (1:1). The maximum measured wave damping (30%) was roughly 1.5 times higher than the real-scale experiments (20%). Following the same trend of the real-scale experiments, this amount of wave height damping declined for larger water levels. Largest effects are argued to be due to increased viscous damping (smaller branch Reynolds numbers) and non-exact flexibility scaling. These significant deviations illustrate that full-scale experiments, although expensive, are still needed to validate the results of scaled experiments for woody vegetation. Alternatively, accounting for these discrepancies can make scaled experiments more reliable and expensive real-scale experiments less needed for wave damping studies on woody vegetation.

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Mangrove forests reduce wave attack along tropical and sub-tropical coastlines, decreasing the wave loads acting on coastal protection structures. Mangrove belts seaward of embankments can therefore lower their required height and decrease their slope protection thickness. Wave reduction by mangroves depends on tree frontal surface area and stability against storms, but both aspects are often oversimplified or neglected in coastal protection designs. Here we present a framework to evaluate how mangrove belts influence embankment designs, including mangrove growth over time and failure by overturning and trunk breakage. This methodology is applied to Sonneratia apetala mangroves seaward of embankments in Bangladesh, considering forest widths between 10 and 1000 m (cross-shore). For water depths of 5 m, wave reduction by mangrove forests narrower than 1 km mostly affects the slope protection and the bank erodibility, whereas the required embankment height is less influenced by mangroves. Sonneratia apetala trees experience a relative maximum in wave attenuation capacity at 10 years age, due to their large submerged canopy area. Once trees are more than 20 years old, their canopy is emergent, and most wave attenuation is caused by trunk and roots. Canopy emergence exposes mangroves to wind loads, which are much larger than wave loads, and can cause tree failure during cyclones. These results stress the importance of including tree surface area and stability models when predicting coastal protection by mangroves.

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Human-induced land subsidence causes many coastal areas to sink centimetres per year, exacerbating relative sea level rise (RSLR). While cities combat this problem through investment in coastal infrastructure, rural areas are highly dependent on the persistence of protective coastal ecosystems, such as mangroves and marshes. To shed light on the future of low-lying rural areas in the face of RSLR, we here studied a 20-km-long rural coastline neighbouring a sinking city in Indonesia, reportedly sinking with 8–20 cm per year. By measuring water levels in mangroves and quantifying floor raisings of village houses, we show that, while villages experienced rapidly rising water levels, their protective mangroves experience less rapid changes in RSLR. Individual trees were able to cope with RSLR rates of 4.3 (95% confidence interval 2.3–6.3) cm per year through various root adaptations when sediment was available locally. However, lateral retreat of the forest proved inevitable, with RSLR rates up to four times higher than foreshore accretion, forcing people from coastal communities to migrate as the shoreline retreated. Whereas local RSLR may be effectively reduced by better management of groundwater resources, the effects of RSLR described here predict a gloomy prospect for rural communities that are facing globally induced sea level rise beyond the control of local or regional government.

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A review of ecological, social, engineering, and integrative approaches to define and apply resilience thinking is presented and comparatively discussed in the context of watershed management. Knowledge gaps are identified through an assessment of this literature and compilation of a set of research questions through stakeholder engagement activities. We derive a proposed research agenda describing key areas of inquiry such as watershed resilience variables and their interactions; leveraging watershed natural properties, processes, and dynamics to facilitate and enable resilience; analytical methods and tools including monitoring, modeling, metrics, and scenario planning, and their applications to watersheds at different spatial and temporal scales, and infusing resilience concepts as core values in watershed adaptive management.

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Management and restoration of mangrove forests to protect coasts are promoted in many countries, including Indonesia. Indonesian mangrove forests are actively restored and managed by local communities for their ecosystem services, including coastal protection. Whether community-based mangrove management (CBMM) is effective is still debated. Our study analysed the effectiveness of different CBMM practices in four Central Javan communities by analysing the capacity of their mangrove forests to protect against coastal hazards. We used complementary interviews, field assessments and literature reviews to collect the necessary information. The overall CBMM performance and success significantly differed for each community's mangrove rehabilitation effort and the resulting coastal protection service. Of the four communities, Bedono performed best in terms of mangrove coverage, forest structure and restored coastal protection service. This is explained by multiple factors, such as application of long-term and integrated CBMM approaches, involving appropriate maintenance and additional measures to reduce wave energy. Our results can help governments, practitioners and communities to better understand the factors that contribute to CBMM's success and failure when restoring and managing mangrove forests and protecting coasts.

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Global change processes such as sea level rise and the increasing frequency of severe storms threaten many coastlines around the world and trigger the need for interventions to make these often densely-populated areas safer. Mangroves could be implemented in Nature-Based Flood Defense, provided that we know how to conserve and restore these ecosystems at those locations where they are most needed. In this study, we investigate how best to restore mangroves along an aquaculture coast that is subject to land-subsidence, comparing two common mangrove restoration methods: 1) mangrove restoration by planting and 2) Ecological Mangrove Restoration (EMR); the assistance of natural mangrove regeneration through mangrove habitat restoration. Satellite data revealed that historically, landward mangrove expansion into the active pond zone has mainly occurred through mangrove planting on pond bunds. However, there is potential to create greenbelts along waterways by means of EMR measures, as propagule trap data from the field revealed that propagules of pioneer species were up to 21 times more abundant in creeks of the pond zone than near their source in the coastal zone. This was especially true during the prevailing onshore winds of the wet-season, suggesting that smart seasonal sluice gate management could help to efficiently trap seeds in target ponds. In the coastal zone, field experiments showed that permeable brushwood dams, aimed at expanding mangrove habitat, could not sufficiently overcome subsidence rates to increase natural mangrove expansion in the seaward direction, but did significantly increase the survival of already established (planted) seedlings compared to more wave-exposed sites. The survival and growth rate of EMR-supported plantings greatly varied between species. Out of the four planted species, Rhizophora mucronata had the highest survival (67%) but the lowest growth rate. Whereas the pioneer species Avicennia alba and Avicennia marina had lower survival rates (resp. 35 and 21%), but significantly higher growth rates, even resulting in fruiting young trees within a 16-month timeframe. Overall, we conclude that 1) EMR has potential in the pond zone, given that propagules were observed to reach well into the backwaters; and 2) that mangrove recovery in the coastal zone may be facilitated even at very challenging coastal sites by combining EMR with the planting of pioneer species.

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The last years, capacity of vegetation to reduce wave impact is receiving considerable attention. To predict wave attenuation processes within vegetation fields reliable estimates of vegetation parameters are needed. This proves to be difficult for woody vegetation as it consists of complex branch structures, characterized by varying branch densities, diameters and angles. State of the art physical and numerical models effectively use a single value for the diameter, b _v and density, N of vegetation, which is unrepresentative for complex vegetation, such as trees. Trees can be better described by the projected frontal-surface area, A _v. Hence, this work compares methods to quantify the A _v in space for a pollard willow forest, and determines suitability of these methods for predicting wave attenuation using a spectral wave model (SWAN). We use data from manual measurements and Terrestrial Laser Scans (TLS), to estimate the vertical distribution of A _v; and data from large-scale flume experiments performed on a willow forest to verify model sensitivity to A _v inferences. As a baseline for comparison, tree models that describe the structure of the trees in various degrees of complexity are compiled. The most realistic tree model is used to quantify potential errors in TLS and basic manual measurements of N and b _v. An initial comparison shows that the TLS data underestimates A _v, which indicates that conducting manual measurements is more suitable to quantify a homogeneous forest. We found that the TLS suffers from shadowing effects (i.e., blockage of laser beams) and we recommend to apply a correction factor to improve its measurements. Furthermore, we identified the impact that the different methods to determine A _v have on the estimation of wave attenuation using SWAN; in addition we verified the model results with data from large-scale flume experiments performed on the willow forest. The modeled sensitivity tests indicate large differences in wave attenuation and, consequently, a wide range (0.94–1.70) of bulk drag coefficients, (Formula presented.), for the various methods applied. This shows the variation of outcome between measuring methods and highlights the importance of stating the selected method for reliable frontal-surface area estimations, and consequently for reliable wave attenuation predictions.

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Nature-based coastal protection is increasingly recognised as a potentially sustainable and cost-effective solution to reduce coastal flood risk. It uses coastal ecosystems such as mangrove forests to create resilient designs for coastal flood protection. However, to use mangroves effectively as a nature-based measure for flood risk reduction, we must understand the biophysical processes that govern risk reduction capacity through mangrove ecosystem size and structure. In this perspective, we evaluate the current state of knowledge on local physical drivers and ecological processes that determine mangrove functioning as part of a nature-based flood defence. We show that the forest properties that comprise coastal flood protection are well-known, but models cannot yet pinpoint how spatial heterogeneity of the forest structure affects the capacity for wave or surge attenuation. Overall, there is relatively good understanding of the ecological processes that drive forest structure and size, but there is a lack of knowledge on how daily bed-level dynamics link to long-term biogeomorphic forest dynamics, and on the role of combined stressors influencing forest retreat. Integrating simulation models of forest structure under changing physical (e.g. due to sea-level change) and ecological drivers with hydrodynamic attenuation models will allow for better projections of long-term natural coastal protection.

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Worldwide, communities are facing increasing flood risk, due to more frequent and intense hazards and rising exposure through more people living along coastlines and in flood plains. Nature-based Solutions (NbS), such as mangroves, and riparian forests, offer huge potential for adaptation and risk reduction. The capacity of trees and forests to attenuate waves and mitigate storm damages receives massive attention, especially after extreme storm events. However, application of forests in flood mitigation strategies remains limited to date, due to lack of real-scale measurements on the performance under extreme conditions. Experiments executed in a large-scale flume with a willow forest to dissipate waves show that trees are hardly damaged and strongly reduce wave and run-up heights, even when maximum wave heights are up to 2.5 m. It was observed for the first time that the surface area of the tree canopy is most relevant for wave attenuation and that the very flexible leaves limitedly add to effectiveness. Overall, the study shows that forests can play a significant role in reducing wave heights and run-up under extreme conditions. Currently, this potential is hardly used but may offer future benefits in achieving more adaptive levee designs.

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Due to rising sea levels and projected socio-economic change, global coastal flood risk is expected to increase in the future. To reduce this increase in risk, one option is to reduce the probability or magnitude of the hazard through the implementation of structural, Nature-based or hybrid adaptation measures. Nature-based Solutions in coastal areas have the potential to reduce impacts of climate change and can provide a more sustainable and cost-effective alternative to structural measures. In this paper, we present the first global scale assessment of the benefits of conserving foreshore vegetation as a means of adaptation to future projections of change in coastal flood risk. In doing so, we extend the current knowledge on the economic feasibility of implementing global scale Nature-based Solutions. We show that globally foreshore vegetation can contribute to a large decrease in both absolute and relative flood risk (13% of present-day and 8.5% of future conditions in 2080 of global flood risk). Although this study gives a first proxy of the flood risk reduction benefits of conserving foreshore vegetation at the global scale, it shows promising results for including Nature-based and hybrid adaptation measures in coastal adaptation schemes.

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The increasing risk of flooding requires obtaining generalized knowledge for the implementation of distinct and innovative intervention strategies, such as nature-based solutions. Inclusion of ecosystems in flood risk management has proven to be an adaptive strategy that achieves multiple benefits. However, obtaining generalizable quantitative information to increase the reliability of such interventions through experiments or numerical models can be expensive, laborious, or computationally demanding. This paper presents a probabilistic model that represents interconnected elements of vegetated hydrodynamic systems using a nonparametric Bayesian network (NPBN) for seagrasses, salt marshes, and mangroves. NPBNs allow for a system-level probabilistic description of vegetated hydrodynamic systems, generate physically realistic varied boundary conditions for physical or numerical modeling, provide missing information in data-scarce environments, and reduce the amount of numerical simulations required to obtain generalized results-all of which are critically useful to pave the way for successful implementation of nature-based solutions.

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Exposure to coastal flooding is increasing due to growing population and economic activity. These developments go hand-in-hand with a loss and deterioration of ecosystems. Ironically, these ecosystems can play a buffering role in reducing flood hazard. The ability of ecosystems to contribute to reducing coastal flooding has been emphasized in multiple studies. However, the role of ecosystems in hybrid coastal protection (i.e. a combination of ecosystems and levees) has been poorly quantified at a global scale. Here, we evaluate the use of coastal vegetation, mangroves, and marshes fronting levees to reduce global coastal protection costs, by accounting for wave-vegetation interaction.The research is carried out by combining earth observation data and hydrodynamic modelling. We show that incooperating vegetation in hybrid coastal protection results in more sustainable and financially attractive coastal protection strategies. If vegetated foreshore levee systems were established along populated coastlines susceptible to flooding, the required levee crest height could be considerably reduced. This would result in a reduction of 320 (range: 107-961) billion USD2005 Power Purchasing Parity (PPP) in investments, of which 67.5 (range: 22.5- 202) billion USD2005 PPP in urban areas for a 1 in 100-year flood protection level.@en

The value of mangroves has been widely acknowledged, but mangrove forests continue to decline due to numerous anthropogenic stressors. The impact of plastic waste is however poorly known, even though the amount of plastic litter is the largest in the region where mangroves are declining the fastest: South East Asia. In this study, we examine the extent of the plastic waste problem in mangroves along the north coast of Java, Indonesia. First, we investigate how much of the forest floor is covered by plastic in the field (in number of items per m² and in percentage of the forest floor covered by plastic), and if plastic is also buried in the upper layers of the sediment. We then experimentally investigate the effects of a range of plastic cover percentages (0%, 50% and 100%) on root growth, stress response of the tree and tree survival over a period of six weeks. Field monitoring showed that plastic was abundant, with 27 plastic items per m² on average, covering up to 50% of the forest floor at multiple locations. Moreover, core data revealed that plastic was frequently buried in the upper layers of the sediment where it becomes immobile and can create prolonged anoxic conditions. Our experiment subsequently revealed that prolonged suffocation by plastic caused immediate pneumatophore growth and potential leaf loss. However, trees in the 50%-plastic cover treatment proved surprisingly resilient and were able to maintain their canopy over the course of the experiment, whereas trees in the 100%-plastic cover treatment had a significantly decreased leaf area index and survival by the end of the experiment. Our findings demonstrate that mangrove trees are relatively resilient to partial burial by plastic waste. However, mangrove stands are likely to deteriorate eventually if plastic continues to accumulate.

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Global change amplifies coastal flood risks and motivates a paradigm shift towards nature-based coastal defence, where engineered structures are supplemented with coastal wetlands such as saltmarshes. Although experiments and models indicate that such natural defences can attenuate storm waves, there is still limited field evidence on how much they add safety to engineered structures during severe storms. Using well-documented historic data from the 1717 and 1953 flood disasters in Northwest Europe, we show that saltmarshes can reduce both the chance and impact of the breaching of engineered defences. Historic lessons also reveal a key but unrecognized natural flood defence mechanism: saltmarshes lower flood magnitude by confining breach size when engineered defences have failed, which is shown to be highly effective even with long-term sea level rise. These findings provide new insights into the mechanisms and benefits of nature-based mitigation of flood hazards, and should stimulate the development of novel safety designs that smartly harness different natural coastal defence functions.

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Globally, erosion of muddy tropical coasts that are dominated by aquaculture ponds, is an increasing problem. Restoration of mangrove greenbelts may counteract such erosion, by restoring the sediment balance. Hence, we aim to unravel the processes controlling natural mangrove regeneration in both “landward” (i.e., into aquaculture ponds) and seaward direction, using the fast eroding coastline of Demak (Indonesia) as case study. Firstly, we investigated which physical and chemical factors drive landward mangrove expansion by relating them to the presence/absence of mangrove seedlings in abandoned aquaculture ponds. Secondly, we investigated which physical parameters control seaward mangrove expansion by relating them to expansion and retreat at the sea-side of mature mangrove stands. Landward mangrove expansion into abandoned aquaculture ponds was positively related to both emergence time (%) and sediment stability (i.e., shear strength), which are in turn both associated to bed level elevation and pond drainage. Surprisingly, there was no effect of soil chemistry. Seaward expansion of existing mangrove stands was strongly associated to foreshore morphology. Mangroves only expanded in the presence of an elevated mudflat, whereas the absence of a mudflat in combination with a concave (hollow) profile was associated with mangrove retreat. Our findings suggest that restoration of a mangrove greenbelt can be stimulated landward by improving drainage of abandoned aquaculture ponds. This enhances sediment stability and allows ponds to accrete. Seaward expansion can be induced by restoring foreshore morphology. Present results are discussed in the context of large-scale applications.

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Understanding changes in wave attenuation by emergent vegetation as wetlands degrade or accrete over time is crucial for incorporation of wetlands into holistic coastal risk management. Linked SLAMM and XBeach models were used to investigate potential future changes in wave attenuation over a 50-year period in a degrading, subtropical wetland and a prograding, temperate wetland. These contrasting systems also have differing management contexts and were contrasted to demonstrate how the linked models can provide management-relevant insights. Morphological development of wetlands for different scenarios of sea-level rise and accretion was simulated with SLAMM and then coupled with different vegetation characteristics to predict the influence on future wave attenuation using XBeach. The geomorphological context, subsidence, and accretion resulted in large predicted reductions in the extent of vegetated land (e.g., wetland) and changes in wave height reduction potential across the wetland. These were exacerbated by increases in sea-level from +0.217 m to +0.386 m over a 50-year period, especially at the lowest accretion rates in the degrading wetland. Mangrove vegetation increased wave attenuation within the degrading, subtropical, saline wetland, while grazing reduced wave attenuation in the temperate, prograding wetland. Coastal management decisions and actions, related to coastal vegetation type and structure, have the potential to change future wave attenuation at a spatial scale relevant to coastal protection planning. Therefore, a coastal management approach that includes disaster risk reduction, biodiversity, and climate change, can be informed by coastal modeling tools, such as those demonstrated here for two contrasting case studies.

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Vegetated foreshores adjacent to engineered structures (so-called hybrid flood defenses), are considered to have high potential in reducing flood risk, even in the face of sea level rise and increasing storminess. However, foreshores such as salt marshes and mangrove forests are generally characterized by relatively strong temporal and spatial variations in geometry and vegetation characteristics (e.g., stem height and density), which causes uncertainties with regards to their protective value under extreme storm conditions. Currently, no method is available to assess the failure probability of a hybrid flood defense, taking into account the aforementioned uncertainties. This paper presents a method to determine the failure probability of a hybrid flood defense, integrating models and stochastic parameters that describe dike failure and wave propagation over a vegetated foreshore. Two dike failure mechanisms are considered: failure due to (i) wave overtopping and (ii) wave impact on revetments. Results show that vegetated foreshores cause a reduction in failure probability for both mechanisms. This effect is more pronounced for wave impact on revetments than for wave overtopping, since revetment failure occurs at relatively low water levels. The relevance of different uncertainties depends on the protection level and associated dike height and strength. For relatively low dikes (i.e., low protection levels), vegetation remains stable in design conditions, and plays an important role in reducing wave loads. In case of higher protection levels, hence for more robust dikes, vegetation is less important than foreshore geometry, because of expected stem breakage of the vegetation under these more extreme conditions. The integrated analysis of uncertainties in hydraulic loads, dike geometry and foreshore characteristics in this paper enables the comparison between nature-based flood defenses and traditionally engineered solutions, and allows coastal engineers to design hybrid flood defenses worldwide.

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