Worldwide, rivers provide important socio-economic and environmental functions and are essential to human well-being. The growing demand of user-functions and the change in river conditions due to large-scale morphology and climate change, increase the pressure on lowland river systems (e.g. Rhine, Meuse, Danube and Mississippi). To ensure a multi-functional river system, challenges related to uncertain exogenous trends should be tackled. This asks for an integrated approach that accounts for large-scale system behaviour rather than a sectorial approach. This paper proposes a framework that provides support to the river management decision-making process by assessing policy-options against uncertain exogenous processes based on the quantified performance of river functions. Hence, a case study of the Dutch Rhine was carried out, proposing a set of models to simulate river conditions and quantify the performance of the river functions navigation, nature and flood protection. The framework quantifies and monetized the impact of climate change and morphology on the user-functions in 2050. The application of the framework reveals a reduction of shipping efficiency, reduction of floodplain inundation and an increase in flood level. The monetization of river functions allowed an optimization of the policy-options, while dealing with uncertain processes as climate change and morphological changes. We demonstrated the merits of the assessment framework with a case study for the Dutch Rhine, as it provides useful quantitative information to support to decision-making in integrated river management.

Vegetated foreshores adjacent to engineered structures (so-called hybrid flood defenses), are considered to have high potential in reducing flood risk, even in the face of sea level rise and increasing storminess. However, foreshores such as salt marshes and mangrove forests are generally characterized by relatively strong temporal and spatial variations in geometry and vegetation characteristics (e.g., stem height and density), which causes uncertainties with regards to their protective value under extreme storm conditions. Currently, no method is available to assess the failure probability of a hybrid flood defense, taking into account the aforementioned uncertainties. This paper presents a method to determine the failure probability of a hybrid flood defense, integrating models and stochastic parameters that describe dike failure and wave propagation over a vegetated foreshore. Two dike failure mechanisms are considered: failure due to (i) wave overtopping and (ii) wave impact on revetments. Results show that vegetated foreshores cause a reduction in failure probability for both mechanisms. This effect is more pronounced for wave impact on revetments than for wave overtopping, since revetment failure occurs at relatively low water levels. The relevance of different uncertainties depends on the protection level and associated dike height and strength. For relatively low dikes (i.e., low protection levels), vegetation remains stable in design conditions, and plays an important role in reducing wave loads. In case of higher protection levels, hence for more robust dikes, vegetation is less important than foreshore geometry, because of expected stem breakage of the vegetation under these more extreme conditions. The integrated analysis of uncertainties in hydraulic loads, dike geometry and foreshore characteristics in this paper enables the comparison between nature-based flood defenses and traditionally engineered solutions, and allows coastal engineers to design hybrid flood defenses worldwide.

This article highlights recent developments in flood risk management in the Netherlands and presents approaches for reliability analysis and asset management for flood defences and hydraulic infrastructure. The functioning of this infrastructure is of great importance for the country as large parts of it are prone to flooding. Based on a nationwide flood risk assessment, new safety standards for flood defences have been derived in the form of maximal acceptable failure probabilities. A framework for the reliability-based analysis of the performance of hydraulic infrastructure is introduced. Within this context, various challenges are discussed, such as the dynamic nature of loads, resistance and reliability requirements over time. Various case studies are presented to highlight advances and challenges in various application fields. The first case illustrates how structural health monitoring contributes to a better characterisation of the reliability of the defences and how innovative measures can enhance the reliability. The second case discusses how the river system can be managed in the context of the new safety standards. The third case shows how upgrades and reinforcements of hydraulic structures can be evaluated taking into account (uncertain) future developments, such as sea level rise.

This paper describes a fully probabilistic safety assessment of the Dutch North Sea coast, in which stochastic properties of both hydraulic loads and strength of the flood defences have been taken into account. The study has led to an overview of failure probabilities along the coast with high spatial resolution. Both dikes and dunes have been considered. Failure probabilities at individual locations have been combined to flooding probabilities per dike ring area. The vast majority of the Dutch coastal defences is quite secure in terms of flooding. This study demonstrates that generally, the Dutch dunes provide a higher degree of safety than the sea dikes. When incorporating the consequences of flooding to the analysis, the calculated flooding probabilities can be used to determine flood risks. The probabilistic method, presented in this paper, enables accurate balancing between avoided flood risks and investments to reinforce the flood defences.

This article highlights recent developments in the flood risk management in the Netherlands and approaches for asset and life cycle management for flood defences and hydraulic infrastructures. The functioning of these infrastructures is of great importance for the country as large parts of it are prone to flooding, and the adequate functioning of several hydraulic structures is vital for safety and other functionalities. The recent transition of the flood management policy toward more risk-based is summarized, resulting in new safety standards for flood defences in the form of tolerable failure probabilities. Using a risk-based framework, challenges in reliability assessment and management are discussed, such as the dynamic nature of loads, resistances and reliability requirements over time. Finally, various case studies are discussed to present advances and challenges in various subfields. Examples illustrate the utilization of risk-based approaches in the evaluation of innovative dike reinforcements and nature based solutions in flood management. In a third case life cycle cost analysis is demonstrated to be used to optimize the management and future proof reinforcement of large structures.

With the intention to reduce the negative  effects of ongoing bed erosion, as well as to  improve several other river functions such as  protection against floods, provision of safe and  efficient navigation and ecology, a ‘pilot project  longitudinal training dams’ was initiated. The  training dams have recently been implemented  in the Waal between Tiel and Sind Andries. In  this project, river groynes have been  completely removed and replaced by dams  that lie parallel to the river bank. With help of  the longitudinal training dams, a two-channel  river system is created in which the river is  divided into a main and side channel. The  dams are placed in a continuous manner with  openings in between that are relatively small  compared to the dam length. At the beginning  and end of the dam an inlet and outlet region is  situated, as shown in Fig. 1.  The combination of inlet and openings  allows for water and sediment to be divided  between the main and the side channel. Both  inlet and openings are constructed with the  help of a porous rock-layer. The crest heights  can be altered by adding or removing stones.  This is expected to influence the amount of  water and sediment entering the side channel  and can therefore be used as a regulation tool. 

Over the course of centuries, river systems have been heavily trained for the purpose of safe discharge of water, sediment and ice, and improves navigation. Traditionally, dikes are used to be reinforced and heightened to protect countries from ever higher flood levels. Other types of solutions than technical engineering solutions, such as measures to increase the flood conveyance capacity (e.g., lowering of groynes and floodplains, setting back dikes) become more popular. These solutions may however increase the river bed dynamics and thus impact negatively navigation, maintenance dredging and flood safety. A variety of numerical models are available to predict the impact of river restoration works on river processes. Often little attention is paid to the assessment of uncertainties. In this paper, we show how we can make uncertainty explicit using a stochastic approach. This approach helps identifying uncertainty sources and assessing their contribution to the overall uncertainty in river processes. The approach gives engineers a better understanding of system behaviour and enables them to intervene with the river system, so as to avoid undesired situations. We illustrate the merits of this stochastic approach for optimising lowland river restoration works in the Rhine in the Netherlands.

Vegetated foreshores such as salt marshes, mangrove forests and reed fields can reduce wave loads on coastal dikes due to depth-induced wave breaking and wave attenuation by vegetation. Here we present field measurements of wave propagation over salt marshes during severe storm conditions, a modelling approach to describe the effect of vegetated foreshores on wave loads on the dike, and a probabilistic model to quantify the effect of vegetated foreshores on failure probabilities of the dike due to wave overtopping.