Deltas are home to billions of people and are often highly developed and engineered systems. Extreme weather events such as droughts are a threat to deltas worldwide. During droughts salt can intrude far inland and threaten the drinking, agricultural and industrial water supply of many people. Under climate change the frequency of extreme events is expected to increase and the threat of salt intrusion may intensify. Here we use data and models to explore salt intrusion in the Rhine-Meuse Delta (RMD) during the severe European drought in the summer of 2022. The RMD is one of the most highly managed deltas in the world, with numerous interconnected waterways and an open connection to the sea at the mouth of the Rotterdam Waterway. The outflow of the Rhine River through the Rotterdam Waterway generates the strongly stratified Rhine River plume. Under normal conditions a salt wedge intrudes about 16-18 km inland on every tide. In contrast, under drought conditions in summer 2022, observations show salt intruding over 42 km inland and the Rhine River plume diminished in size. We explore the changes in estuarine dynamics during the drought using velocity, salinity and temperature data from various field campaigns near the mouth of the Rotterdam Waterway and within the delta, together with numerical models. We also compare drought condition observations with data from prior field campaigns during normal discharge conditions. Shifts in the relative strength of the dominant mechanisms of landward salt flux throughout the drought are explored and linked to the changes in estuarine response.@en

11th Warnemünde Turbulence Days on Linking Ocean Mixing and Circulation at Various Scales What: Forty-five participants from 10 countries met to discuss contemporary issues of marine turbulence with a focus on the linkage between mixing and overturning circulation on all scales (https://www.io-warnemuende.de/wtd-2023.html). When: 17–20 September 2023 Where: Rostock, Germany.

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The main objective of this study is to develop and analyze an empirical noise model for model-derived coastal summer mean water levels (SMWLs) and use that to obtain a more realistic quality impact of combining hydrodynamic leveling and Unified European Leveling Network (UELN) data in realizing the European Vertical Reference System (EVRS). We considered three state-of-the-art hydrodynamic models for the Northeast Atlantic Ocean, including the North Sea and Wadden Sea; AMM7, DCSMv6-ZUNOv4, and 3D DCSM-FM. Moreover, we assess the spatiotemporal performance of these three models in representing coastal SMWLs. The empirical noise models are determined from the differences between observation- and model-derived SMWLs at coastal tide gauges. All three noise models show that the model noise is indeed correlated over sea distances up to hundreds of kilometers. At the same time, they all show a relatively large discontinuity at the origin (i.e., nugget effect); between 12.1 cm² (3D DCSM-FM) and 16.3 cm² (DCSMv6-ZUNOv4). The variance (i.e., covariance at zero sea distance) for these two models is 15.3 cm² and 21.7 cm², respectively. Averaging the water levels over three summers, lowered the variance and nugget effect for 3D DCSM-FM to 12.7 cm² and 10.0 cm², respectively. Our analysis also showed that between 30 and 50% of the variance has to be attributed to errors in the vertical referencing of the tide gauges. We lacked the information to assess what proportion of the observed noise covariances should be attributed to these errors. The performance assessments revealed significant variations over both space and time as well as among the three hydrodynamic models. The results suggest that there is still room for model improvement. In the final experiments, we used the noise model of the best overall performing model (i.e., 3D DCSM-FM) to reassess the quality impact of combining hydrodynamic leveling and UELN data in realizing the EVRS. The results suggest that not including the noise covariances leads to an overestimation of the total quality impact by 7 % and 8 % , when we average the water levels over one and three summer periods, respectively.

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Both empirical and assimilative global ocean tidal models are significantly more accurate in the deep ocean than in shelf and coastal waters. In this study, we answered whether this is due to the quality of the models used to reduce tide and surge or the general approach to treat tide and surge as two separate components of the water level obtained from stand-alone models, which ignores the nonlinear tide–surge interaction. In doing so, we used tide gauge observations as partially synthetic altimeter time series, tide–surge water-level time series obtained with the 2D Dutch Continental Shelf Model–Flexible Mesh (DCSM), and tide and surge water-level time series obtained using the DCSM, FES2014 (FES) and the Dynamic Atmospheric Correction (DAC) product. Expressed in the root-sum-square (RSS) of the eight main tidal constituents, we obtained a reduction (Formula presented.) % when removing the DCSM tide–surge water levels compared to when we removed the sum of the DCSM tide and DCSM surge water levels. The RSS obtained in the latter case was only 3.3% lower than with FES and DAC. We conclude that the lower tidal estimates accuracy in shelf-coastal waters derives from the missing nonlinear tide–surge interactions.

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Under the influence of climate change, estuaries around the world are increasingly exposed to more extreme weather conditions. In recent years droughts specifically have been occurring more frequently and for prolonged periods. During a period of drought, salt intrusion is exacerbated, impacting the availability and quality of water resources and the estuarine ecosystem. As the impacts of droughts can be severe, assessment of droughts and their influence on the estuarine system is of great importance.

Using a high-resolution 3D coupled ocean-delta model we investigate the influence of the record-breaking European drought of the summer of 2022 on the Rhine-Meuse Delta and compare this to the estuarine response under average discharge conditions, putting the drought’s influence into perspective. Spatial patterns of stratification, mixing, and straining and their evolution throughout the drought period are studied by a salinity variance analysis. The progression of the salt wedge and retreat of the tidal plume fronts are examined and related to the changing strength of the individual estuarine processes influencing stratification. We show that as the tidal plume fronts retreat during the drought, we see a corresponding change in the structure of the salt wedge, demonstrating the importance of the coupling between the tidal plume fronts and the estuarine dynamics.@en

All realizations of the European Vertical Reference System (EVRS) computed so far are solely based on geopotential differences obtained by spirit leveling/gravimetry. As such, there are no direct connections between height benchmarks separated by large water bodies. In this study, such connections are added by means of model-based hydrodynamic leveling resulting in a new, yet unofficial realization of the EVRS. The model-derived mean water levels used in computing the hydrodynamic leveling connections were obtained from the Nemo-Nordic (Baltic Sea) and 3D DCSM-FM (northwest European continental shelf) hydrodynamic models. The impact of model-based hydrodynamic leveling on the European Vertical Reference Frame is significant, especially for France and Great Britain. Compared to a solution which only uses spirit leveling/gravimetry, the differences in these countries reach tens to hundreds of kgalmm . We also observed an improved agreement with normal heights obtained by differencing GNSS and the European gravimetric quasi-geoid 2015 (EGG2015) heights. In Great Britain, the south-north slope of 48 mm deg ^{- 1} present in the solution which uses only spirit leveling/gravimetry data reduced to 2.2 mm deg ^{- 1} . In France, the improvement is confined to the southwest. The choice of the period over which water levels are averaged has an impact on the results as it determines, among others, the set of tide gauges available to establish the hydrodynamic leveling connections. When using an averaging period that can be considered as the least preferred choice based on three established criteria, the positive impact for France has gone. For Great Britain, the estimated south-north slope became 12.6 mm deg ^{- 1} . This is larger than the slope obtained using the most preferred averaging period but still substantially lower compared to the slope associated with a solution that uses only spirit leveling/gravimetry.

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Tidal river plumes dominate many shelf seas, transporting freshwater, sediment, nutrients, pollutants and larvae downstream. The Rhine River Plume is one of the largest in Europe, under typical discharge conditions it is dominated by tidal plume fronts in the near to mid-field plume and by tidal straining in the mid- to far field plume. Moreover, in agreement with other tidal river plumes discharging onto the shelf, internal waves generated ahead of tidal plume fronts are an important source of mixing in the river plume. We compare field data collected downstream of the mouth of the Rhine River in 2013 and 2014 under typical discharge conditions, with data collected in the near field plume during 2022 during a major drought. Together with numerical models we explore how extreme variations in freshwater discharge impact both tidal straining and the formation and strength of tidal plume fronts. Furthermore we explore how in turn, this influences the structure and mixing of the near to far-field Rhine River Plume. We use a 3D hydrostatic model of the Rhine River Plume and a potential energy anomaly analysis to explore changes in the mixing. We explore how the river plume adjusts to extremely low discharge conditions and discuss the possible impact on the transport of freshwater, tracers, larvae and fine sediment.@en

Satellite observations can help in the retrieval of constituents in shallow waters. Noise contamination, however, makes smaller constituents irretrievable and large sources of error. Throughout shallow areas, the constituent’s relevancy changes. For example, near an amphidromic point where M2 relevance drops, so does the potential of satellite contribution for improving its accuracy. Moreover, shallow waters are generally influenced by many constituents (>100). Accurately retrieving all these constituents with satellite radar altimeter data alone is not possible. Series length requirements imposed by the Rayleigh criteria to separate constituents are still unavailable. Removing unwanted signals from satellite observations improves least-squares-based harmonic estimates, given an inversion matrix with the same condition number. This variance reduction is the core of the remove compute restore approach commonly used. First, residual harmonic sets are computed with the difference between observations and model background estimates through conventional or weighted least-squares. Then, the residual harmonics are added to the background model estimates. Here we implemented a method that extends the typical approach by including model background estimate and error covariance in the least-squares step. This inclusion helps to weigh between constituents well represented in the model and those that must be updated. To test the method, we designed a semi-synthetic experiment. First, we used tide gauge data to generate a satellite equivalent dataset and compared estimations between the two methods listed above and the model estimate. Next, we applied the method to compute tidal estimates along satellite radar altimeter tracks (T/P Jason) in the 2D Dutch Coastal Shelf Model (DCSMv6) domain. Results from the synthetic experiment show that the second method produces consistently better estimates reducing RSS consistently through temporal cross-validation. In addition, it provides an effective way of keeping as many constituents estimates as the model series can resolve, adding the benefits of satellite observations. Finally, results from the North Sea implementation show the new estimates increase the variance reduction of satellite residuals across the whole domain relative to background tidal estimates. The range of improvements varies between 0 and 3cm, which is significant given already very accurate model background estimates. The benefited areas include the English Channel, the Irish Sea, the English North-Sea Coast, the Bay of Biscay, the German Bight, and the North Atlantic region close to the upper boundary of the model domain. @en

An 11 hours survey was performed on the 17th of September 2014 in the Rhine Region Of Freshwater Influence (Rhine-ROFI) about 10 km downstream of the mouth of the Rotterdam Waterway during calm weather conditions. Suspended Particle Matter (SPM) measurements were performed during a full tidal cycle, near the seabed, at neap tide, and samples were taken at 0.6 meter above bed for on-board analysis. The measurements were performed with (a) LISST 100X, a submersible particle size analyzer, (b) LISST-HOLO, a submersible digital holographic camera, (c) a home-made underwater camera and (d) an on-board LabSFLOC2 video microscopy equipment that used in-situ collected samples. The first aim of the present study was to compare the results obtained from the different monitoring techniques and to characterize the different types of suspended particles found in-situ. It was found that that the highly anisotropic particles present in the water column lead to multiple peaks in the Particle Size Distributions (PSD) found using the LISST 100X. Using the LISST-HOLO, underwater camera and LabSFLOC2 camera these particles could properly be imaged and meaningful PSD’s were obtained using these techniques in the size range > 20 μm. LabSFLOC2, LISST-HOLO and the underwater camera moreover provide information on the size and aspect ratio of particles. On the other hand, LISST 100X can be used to detect the fine fraction (<20 μm), a size range that is not accessible for the other techniques. From the analysis of the data on the survey day, three classes of particles were identified, based on composition rather than size (the sizes given here are purely indicative): (1) mineral (inorganic) sediment particles in the range size 5 - 20 μm, (2) organic/inorganic aggregates in the size range 20 - 200 μm and (3) organic particles in the size range > 200 μm. A large range of settling velocities (0.1 - 10 mm/s) and aspect ratios between 1 and 10 were recorded by video microscopy (LabSFLOC2). This spreading in settling velocities and aspect ratio was due to the different properties (shape, effective density and size) of the particles in the water column. The second aim of the study was to reproduce the flocs found in-situ in the lab and investigate the kinetics of flocculation between inorganic and living organic matter. Laboratory experiments were conducted with grab samples obtained from Port of Rotterdam harbour and living microalgae (Skeletonema costatum). The results of these experiments showed a shift in effective density upon addition of living algae to the sediment, which confirmed the flocculation ability between sediment and microalgae. The flocculation occured on a timescale of minutes and lead to flocs having a large spread in density for a given size, due to the heteregeous inorganic/organic composition of the flocs. This spread in density was at the origin of the large range of settling velocities for a given floc size observed in-situ, which leads to conclude that organic matter should be an important input parameter in sediment transport models.@en

Strongly forced salt wedge estuaries are known to demonstrate significant variability in stratification, currents, and mixing within a tidal cycle. Such estuaries also show strongly spatially varying patterns of stratification and mixing, and the processes causing this spatial and temporal variability are known to interact. As a consequence, the dynamics of these estuaries are distinctly different from well-mixed and partially mixed estuaries, and intratidal processes may play a more central role in the evolution of stratification.

The Rhine-Meuse estuary is an example of a strongly forced salt wedge estuary. It is very dynamic, mesotidal, and stably stratified. In this study, we investigate how individual intratidal estuarine processes contribute to the evolution of stratification in the Rhine-Meuse estuary. Data from recent shipboard measurements are used to assess their relative influence and highlight the potential importance of interactions between these processes.

From measurements in the Rhine-Meuse estuary we find that the availability of salt is determined by tidal advection of the salt wedge. Additionally, exchange flows transfer salt from high-density to low-density regions such as harbour basins and side branches while the salt wedge is advected through the estuary. The combination of the barotropic tidal asymmetry imposed at the river mouth and turbulence damping at the pycnocline results in strong shear and subsequent formation of mid-depth jets at the onset of flood. These mid-depth jets contribute to the transfer of salt by transporting salt from regions of higher momentum to regions of lower momentum. Furthermore, the measurements suggest that several bathymetric transitions locally generate internal wave activity, although the resulting turbulent mixing is not strong enough to erode the persistent salt wedge structure.

These findings underline the importance of interactions between intratidal processes on different spatial scales and their effect on the evolution of stratification in the Rhine-Meuse estuary. As an extension to our findings, measurements in the Rhine region of influence (ROFI) are used to further examine the role of the seaside forcing on the individual physical processes and the resulting intratidal variability of stratification in the estuary.@en

Because of its pronounced fresh signature, the properties of the northward-flowing Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW) affect the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. Hence, understanding modifications of AAIW along its path is important. Here, we analyze AAIW changes along its path in the Caribbean Sea and assess whether vertical fluxes from background turbulence and from double-diffusive mixing in thermohaline staircases can explain these variations. We deduce the occurrence rate of staircases (7%) and estimate the flux ratio (Formula presented.) from Argo float profiles. In combination with vertical fluxes from background turbulence, these values are used in a steady-state advection-diffusion model to estimate the effective diffusivity of salt that arises from double diffusion (Formula presented.). This value for (Formula presented.) is similar to observed values (Schmitt, 2005, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1108678), implying the observed modification of AAIW in the Caribbean Sea may be attributable primarily to vertical mixing in the region itself.

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A devastating tsunami struck Palu Bay in the wake of the 28 September 2018 M_w = 7.5 Palu earthquake (Sulawesi, Indonesia). With a predominantly strike-slip mechanism, the question remains whether this unexpected tsunami was generated by the earthquake itself, or rather by earthquake-induced landslides. In this study we examine the tsunami potential of the co-seismic deformation. To this end, we present a novel geodetic data set of Global Positioning System and multiple Synthetic Aperture Radar-derived displacement fields to estimate a 3D co-seismic surface deformation field. The data reveal a number of fault bends, conforming to our interpretation of the tectonic setting as a transtensional basin. Using a Bayesian framework, we provide robust finite fault solutions of the co-seismic slip distribution, incorporating several scenarios of tectonically feasible fault orientations below the bay. These finite fault scenarios involve large co-seismic uplift (>2 m) below the bay due to thrusting on a restraining fault bend that connects the offshore continuation of two parallel onshore fault segments. With the co-seismic displacement estimates as input we simulate a number of tsunami cases. For most locations for which video-derived tsunami waveforms are available our models provide a qualitative fit to leading wave arrival times and polarity. The modeled tsunamis explain most of the observed runup. We conclude that co-seismic deformation was the main driver behind the tsunami that followed the Palu earthquake. Our unique geodetic data set constrains vertical motions of the sea floor, and sheds new light on the tsunamigenesis of strike-slip faults in transtensional basins.

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Mesoscale anticyclonic eddies dominate the sea-surface height variability in the Caribbean Sea. Although it is well established that these anticyclones are formed near the eastern boundary of the Caribbean Sea, which is demarcated by the Lesser Antilles, the source of their anticyclonic vorticity remains unclear. To gain insight into this source, we analyze the fluxes of vorticity into the Caribbean at its eastern boundary using a high-resolution numerical model. We find that the anticyclonic vorticity in the eastern Caribbean Sea predominantly originates from regions where intense ocean currents flow close to the Lesser Antilles. More specifically, St. Lucia and Grenada are hotspots for vorticity generation. The local generation rate scales with the amplitude of the volume transport through the passages between these islands. This finding is in contrast with the view that anticyclonic North Brazil Current (NBC) rings in the Atlantic Ocean are the main source of anticyclonic vorticity in the eastern Caribbean Sea. Our analyses reveal that the direct contribution of the vorticity of the NBC rings is of lesser importance than the local generation. However, the collision of upstream NBC rings with the Lesser Antilles increases the volume transport through the passages into the Caribbean Sea, so that their presence indirectly leads to enhanced local production of anticyclonic vorticity. This process is an example of the importance of vorticity generation near topography, which is ubiquitous in the oceans, and expected to be important whenever currents and steep topography meet.

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The Rhine region of freshwater influence (ROFI) is strongly stratified, rotational, relatively shallow and has large tides, resulting in a dynamic field of fronts that are formed by multiple processes. We use a 3D numerical model to obtain a conceptual picture of the frontal structure and the processes responsible for generating this multiple front structure in the Rhine ROFI. The horizontal salinity gradient and numerical tracers are used to identify three different types of fronts: outer, inner, tidal plume and relic tidal plume fronts. Tidal plume front (TPF) trajectories together with the tracers demonstrate that TPFs exist for longer than one tidal cycle. A Lagrangian frontogenesis analysis shows that the fronts are strengthened mainly as a result of increased convergence, which is observed to occur at times when tidal straining is large. Additionally the alongshore tidal excursion and the dominance of the tidal currents over the intrinsic frontal propagation speed, trap TPFs within 20 km from the river mouth. Trapping and re-strengthening maintain several fronts at a time in the mid-field region, resulting in a multi-frontal system. The observation of a complex river plume system is expected to be important for cross-shore exchange, transport and coastal ecology.

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The first objective of this paper is to assess by means of geodetic network analyses the impact of adding model-based hydrodynamic leveling data to the Unified European Leveling Network (UELN) data on the precision and reliability of the European Vertical Reference Frame (EVRF). In doing so, we used variance information from the latest UELN adjustment. The model-based hydrodynamic leveling data are assumed to be obtained from not-yet existing hydrodynamic models covering either all European seas surrounding the European mainland or parts of it that provide the required mean water level with uniform precision. A heuristic search algorithm was implemented to identify the set of hydrodynamic leveling connections that provide the lowest median of the propagated height standard deviations. In the scenario in which we only allow for connections between tide gauges located in the same sea basin, all having a precision of 3 cm, the median of the propagated height standard deviations improved by 38 % compared to the spirit leveling-only solution. Except for the countries around the Black Sea, coastal countries benefit the most with a maximum improvement of 60 % for Great Britain. We also found decreased redundancy numbers for the observations in the coastal areas and over the entire Great Britain. Allowing for connections between tide gauges among all European seas increased the impact to 42%. Lowering the precision of the hydrodynamic leveling data lowers the impact. The results show, however, that even in case the assumed precision is 5 cm, the overall improvement is still 29%. The second objective is to identify which tide gauges are most profitable in terms of impact. Our results show that these are the ones located in Sweden in which most height markers are located. The impact, however, hardly depends on the geographic location of the tide gauges within a country.

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Remotely sensed images document the occurrence of multiple packets of internal solitary waves (ISWs) in the Rhine River plume at the same time. We use a combination of field observations, and non-hydrostatic and hydrostatic modeling to understand the processes that lead to the generation and retention of multiple ISW packets within the Rhine plume. Previous numerical modeling shows that the tidal plume front is trapped in the mid-field plume for more than one tidal cycle due to tidal straining and recirculation within the plume, resulting in the presence of multiple fronts in the near-and mid-field plume regions. In this work, we show how variations in the strength of these fronts can lead to the release of ISW packets. We conclude that the retention of the fronts in the mid-field region of the plume and modulation in the strength of the fronts can explain the presence of multiple ISW packets. A frontal Froude number analysis shows that fronts generated during the previous ebb tide can release ISWs in addition to the newly released tidal plume front.

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The intensity of major storm events generated within the Atlantic Basin is projected to rise with the warming of the oceans, which is likely to exacerbate coastal erosion. Nature-based flood defence has been proposed as a sustainable and effective solution to protect coastlines. However, the ability of natural ecosystems to withstand major storms like tropical hurricanes has yet to be thoroughly tested. Seagrass meadows both stabilise sediment and attenuate waves, providing effective coastal protection services for sandy beaches. To examine the tolerance of Caribbean seagrass meadows to extreme storm events, and to investigate the extent of protection they deliver to beaches, we employed a combination of field surveys, biomechanical measurements and wave modelling simulations. Field surveys of seagrass meadows before and after a direct hit by the category 5 Hurricane Irma documented that established seagrass meadows of Thalassia testudinum remained unaltered after the extreme storm event. The flexible leaves and thalli of seagrass and calcifying macroalgae inhabiting the meadows were shown to sustain the wave forces that they are likely to experience during hurricanes. In addition, the seagrass canopy and the complex biogeomorphic landscape built by the seagrass meadows combine to significantly dissipate extreme wave forces, ensuring that erosion is minimised within sandy beach foreshores. The persistence of the Caribbean seagrass meadows and their coastal protection services during extreme storm events ensures that a stable coastal ecosystem and beach foreshore is maintained in tropical regions.

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Thermohaline staircases are associated with double-diffusive mixing. They are characterized by stepped structures consisting of mixed layers of typically tens of metres thick that are separated by much thinner interfaces. Through these interfaces enhanced diapycnal salt and heat transport take place. In this study, we present a global dataset of thermohaline staircases derived from observations of Argo profiling floats and Ice-Tethered Profilers using a novel detection algorithm. To establish the presence of thermohaline staircases, the algorithm detects subsurface mixed layers and analyses the interfaces in between. Of each detected staircase, the conservative temperature, absolute salinity, depth, and height, as well as some other properties of the mixed layers and interfaces, are computed. The algorithm is applied to 487 493 quality-controlled temperature and salinity profiles to obtain a global dataset. The performance of the algorithm is verified through an analysis of independent regional observations. The algorithm and global dataset are available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4286170.

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Joint effects of the dynamic sea-level rise projected changes in the large-scale atmosphere/ocean circulation, and wave climate on hurricane-induced extreme water levels in the Caribbean region are assessed. We use the 2D-depth integrated ADCIRC + SWAN wave-ocean model, baroclinically coupled to an ocean-eddying version of the Community Earth System Model, to compare impacts of the September 2017 hurricanes with projected impacts of similar hypothetical tropical storms occurring in the future. The model predicts only minor changes in the hurricane-induced extreme water levels for those Caribbean islands which were severely devastated by the 2017 tropical storms (Irma and Maria). That is, provided that the hurricane intensity remains at the present-day level, the global mean sea-level rise is the main future coastal flood risk factor.

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The sound speed provides insight in ocean properties, as it depends on depth, temperature and salinity. Here, we propose a method to invert sound speed profiles (SSPs) from multibeam echosounder (MBES) measurements, providing a SSP for every ping. Using erroneous SSPs results in a mismatch in the estimated bathymetry between overlapping swaths. The SSP is estimated by minimizing this mismatch using Differential Evolution. In this work, SSPs are described using empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs), which are obtained from historical SSPs. As a proof-of-concept, we apply the inversion on a simulated MBES survey, where the synthetically generated SSPs are fully described by 3 EOFs. The inverted SSPs deviate 1 m/s from the correct profiles. In the case of actual SSPs, more EOFs are possibly required. The number of required EOFs to get an accurate estimate of the SSP is assessed by using SSPs acquired in the North Sea. Results show that including only 2 EOFs is sufficient to accurately estimate the SSP, although larger deviations up to 3 m/s were found. In this paper, we demonstrated the potential of the proposed method to invert SSPs from MBES measurements, which can provide information about the vertical structure of the water column. @en