Nearby faults interact with each other through the exchange of stress. However, the extent of fault interaction is poorly understood. In particular, interactions may lead to slow-slip activity, resulting in episodes of transient surface motion. Our study concentrates on Northwest Sulawesi (Indonesia), which hosts two fault zones with potential for major earthquakes and tsunamis: the strike-slip Palu-Koro fault and the Minahassa subduction zone. Thanks to a 20-year-long effort in geodetic monitoring, we are able to identify multiple periods during which surface velocities deviate from their interseismic trend. We use a Bayesian methodology with forward predictions of slip on the two fault interfaces to match the observations following the 2018 Mw7.5 Palu earthquake, and infer that both deep afterslip on the Palu-Koro fault and slow slip on the Minahassa subduction interface have caused the observed transient surface motion. This finding represents the first recording of a slow slip event on the Minahassa subduction interface. We also infer that the subduction interface and the strike-slip fault are likely interacting on a regular basis.@en

A devastating tsunami struck Palu Bay in the wake of the 28 September 2018 M_w = 7.5 Palu earthquake (Sulawesi, Indonesia). With a predominantly strike-slip mechanism, the question remains whether this unexpected tsunami was generated by the earthquake itself, or rather by earthquake-induced landslides. In this study we examine the tsunami potential of the co-seismic deformation. To this end, we present a novel geodetic data set of Global Positioning System and multiple Synthetic Aperture Radar-derived displacement fields to estimate a 3D co-seismic surface deformation field. The data reveal a number of fault bends, conforming to our interpretation of the tectonic setting as a transtensional basin. Using a Bayesian framework, we provide robust finite fault solutions of the co-seismic slip distribution, incorporating several scenarios of tectonically feasible fault orientations below the bay. These finite fault scenarios involve large co-seismic uplift (>2 m) below the bay due to thrusting on a restraining fault bend that connects the offshore continuation of two parallel onshore fault segments. With the co-seismic displacement estimates as input we simulate a number of tsunami cases. For most locations for which video-derived tsunami waveforms are available our models provide a qualitative fit to leading wave arrival times and polarity. The modeled tsunamis explain most of the observed runup. We conclude that co-seismic deformation was the main driver behind the tsunami that followed the Palu earthquake. Our unique geodetic data set constrains vertical motions of the sea floor, and sheds new light on the tsunamigenesis of strike-slip faults in transtensional basins.

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Plate boundary deformation zones represent a challenge in terms of understanding their underlying geodynamic drivers. Active deformation is well constrained by GNSS observations in the SW Balkans, Greece and W Turkey, and is characterized by variable extension and strike slip in an overall context of slow convergence of the Nubia plate relative to stable Eurasia. Diverse, and all potentially viable, forces and models have been proposed as the cause of the observed surface deformation, e.g., asthenospheric flow, horizontal gravitational stresses (HGSs) from lateral variations in gravitational potential energy, and rollback of the Hellenic slab. We use Bayesian inference to constrain the relative contribution of the proposed driving and resistive regional forces. Our models are spherical 2D finite element models representing vertical lithospheric averages. In addition to regional plate boundaries, the models include well-constrained fault zones like north and south branches of the North Anatolian Fault, Gulf of Corinth and faults bounding the Menderes Massif. Boundary conditions represent geodynamic processes: (1) far-field relative plate motions; (2) resistive fault tractions; (3) HGSs from lateral density variations; (4) slab pull and trench suction at subduction zones; and (5) active asthenospheric convection. The magnitude of each of these is a parameter in a Bayesian analysis of ~100,000 models and horizontal GNSS velocities. The search yields a probability distribution of all parameter values including model error, allowing us to determine mean/median parameter values, robustly estimate parameter uncertainties, and identify tradeoffs (i.e., parameter covariances). The average viscosity of the overriding plate is well resolved 3-4 10^22 Pa.s, which is higher than from published models without faults. Significant trench suction forces from the Hellenic slab act on the overriding Aegean Sea, including along the Pliny-Strabo STEP Fault. Slab pull and convective tractions have a small imprint on the observed deformation of the overriding plate. HGSs are necessary to explain local features in the velocity field, particularly in the Aegean Sea, but are less important for fitting the regional pattern of velocities. Resistive tractions on most plate boundaries and faults are low.@en

The 2018 (Formula presented.) Palu earthquake is a remarkable strike-slip event due to its nature as a shallow supershear fault rupture across several segments and a destructive tsunami that followed coseismic deformation. GPS offsets in the wake of the 2018 earthquake display a transient in the surface motions of northwest Sulawesi. A Bayesian approach identifies (predominantly aseismic) deep afterslip on and below the coseismic rupture plane as the dominant physical mechanism causing the cumulative, postseismic, surface displacements whereas viscous relaxation of the lower crust and poro-elastic rebound contribute negligibly. We confirm a correlation between shallow supershear rupture and postseismic surface transients with afterslip activity in the zone below an interseismically locked fault plane where the slip rate tapers from zero to creeping.

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The Gibraltar Arc (GA; Western Mediterranean) is located in between the slowly converging African and Eurasian continents and runs from the Rif in northern Morocco to the Betics in southern Spain. Geodetic velocities in this wide plate boundary region are different from the motions of both stable Eurasia and Africa. Various lithospheric and asthenospheric drivers have been called upon to explain the observed surface motions. We constrain the magnitude of these driving forces and the effective mechanical properties of the lithosphere and fault zones using regional geodynamic Finite Element models (FEMs). All of our FEMs have lithospheric forces that arise from lateral variations of gravitational potential energy, mainly from lateral variations in topography and Moho topology. They also all include far-field Africa-Eurasia convergence. The well-imaged Gibraltar slab suggests that slab pull and/or slab suction may contribute to the surface motions. Also, tractions that arise from lateral transport of the slab through the upper mantle are potentially relevant. We adopt parameterized versions of these slab forces in the FEMs. In our FEMs, we impose shear tractions on observationally constrained fault zones. We quantify the model parameter resolution and tradeoffs in light of the available kinematic surface observations with a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach, implementing the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm. We compare the model results to the geodetic velocity observations, which have the smallest error margins of all the kinematic observations, and to the sense of shear along (potentially) active fault zones. Preliminary results based on a search of 60,000 models indicate that the observed GNSS velocity field and sense of slip on regional faults in the Gibraltar Arc appear to result mainly from Africa-Europe plate convergence and lateral GPE variations. Slab pull from the Gibraltar slab is very likely transmitted poorly into the overriding plate and probability distributions for the trench suction force do not display any favorable value to affect the kinematics in the Gibraltar Arc region. The best models have rms-misfits of 0.23 mm/yr, which is mostly due to a systematic SW motion of up to 4 mm/yr in the SW Rif.@en