On December 12, 2015, at the 21st session of the Conference of the Parties, 195 countries adopted the Paris Agreement (PA) to address climate change and its negative impacts, with the goal of limiting human-caused climate change to slightly less than 2°C, preferably 1.5°C, from p
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On December 12, 2015, at the 21st session of the Conference of the Parties, 195 countries adopted the Paris Agreement (PA) to address climate change and its negative impacts, with the goal of limiting human-caused climate change to slightly less than 2°C, preferably 1.5°C, from pre-industrial levels (United Nations, 2015). From that point on, these countries were expected to share their own mitigation and adaptation plans, which are known as their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). Parties were asked to resubmit the next round of NDCs by 2020, and every five years thereafter (United Nations Climate Change, 2021). The new NDCs should go beyond the commitments made in the previous cycle and reflect the "highest possible ambition" (UNFCCC, 2015). However, there are significant differences in the level of ambition between countries' NDCs (Tobin, 2017), leaving room to reflect on why some countries have included more ambitious mitigation targets in their pledge compared to others. A literature review revealed two gaps, whereby further research on NDC ambition should focus on comparing countries at the global level (first gap), while considering combinations of influencing national factors (second gap). There is a multitude of national factors that influence NDC ambition. Hall's (1997) "Ideas, Interests and Institutions framework", serves as a theoretical checklist in policy making (Walt et al., 2008), and is used to organize the variables. Based on recommendations from previous research (van Coppenolle, 2002; Lamb & Minx, 2020), a fourth " societal" category was added to the framework. The main research question is therefore: How can national conditions (ideas, interests, institutional or societal) explain the presence or absence of ambition in a country's Nationally Determined Contribution under the Paris Agreement?
The aim of this study was to explore what combination of national conditions influence the ambition of NDCs submitted to the PA and therewith, being able to provide recommendations for national policymakers, decision-makers and more specifically the governing bodies of the Conference of the Parties (COP), who are the decision-makers of the UNFCCC, seeking to understand collective progress. Firstly, to identify the most relevant national conditions that affect NDC ambition, a desk study was performed. This led to the identification of six national conditions in total. The national conditions selected and analyzed in this research were corruption, democracy, individualism, dependency on natural resources, vulnerability to climate change and a country’s wealth. In this report, an NDC was considered ambitious if the pledges were consistent with a fair share effort to hold warming below 2°C. In contrast, an NDC was considered unambitious if the commitment was inconsistent with a fair share effort to hold warming below 2°C. A fair share effort is based on what a country its total contribution would need to be to implement the PA. In total, the ambitiousness of NDCs of 32 countries and the European Union have been compared, which together account for 80 percent of global emissions (CAT, 2021).
As a main method, it was decided to apply a fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (fsQCA). fsQCA is a configurational approach, which considers the possibility that NDC ambition is the outcome of a combination of factors as opposed to the sum of net effects (Ragin & Fiss, 2008). This method is selected as a main method over other statistical approaches, such as regression analysis, because NDC ambition is a complex issue for which it is assumed that the conditions do not act independently of each other. However, to check whether this assumption is correct, and to see whether a statistical approach might give additional insights, a series of bivariate correlation analyses have been performed as well. In addition, two semi-structured interviews were conducted to verify that the results were valid. The two interviewees have been selected and approached based on their expertise on subjects related to the comparison of national climate commitments and their expertise on which factors explain their success and the lack thereof.
The results of the fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis and the correlation analysis have been combined and provided insights into why certain countries submit ambitious NDCs, and why other countries submit non-ambitious NDCs. In total one configuration is obtained that is sufficient in explaining the submission of ambitious NDCs, and four configurations are obtained that is sufficient in explaining the submission of non-ambitious NDCs. With fsQCA, a configuration is a set/combination of conditions that explains a certain outcome. It is found that the combination of not being dependent on natural resources and being vulnerable to climate change is sufficient to explain the submission of ambitious NDCs. When such a country also has a low gross national income (GNI) and is corrupt, there is an even greater likelihood that the submitted NDC is ambitious. Regarding the submission of non-ambitious NDCs, it is found that being dependent on natural resources and/or not being vulnerable to climate change is sufficient to explain the submission of non-ambitious NDCs. When a country presents either one of these two factors, it is already adequate to submit an unambitious NDC. Besides these (core) conditions, the chance of submitting an unambitious NDC is even greater when the society of a country is rather collectivistic, meaning people easily sacrifice individual benefit for the success of a group. It was more difficult to draw general conclusions regarding the effect of GNI or corruption. The fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis showed that the obtained configurations are sufficient, but not necessary to occur. In general, this means that knowing the configuration to be true, is adequate grounds to conclude that the outcome (NDC ambition) is true; However, knowing that the configuration is not to be true does not necessarily mean that the outcome (NDC ambition) is not true. This highlights the need for good governance, monitoring and decision-making processes. Additionally, in 2023, the global stock take will take place, in which the collective progress made towards achieving the long-term goals of the Paris Agreement will be assessed. The aim of the global stock take is to become a driver of ambition.
Based on the findings of this research, recommendations for policymakers and decision makers have been established. The recommendations are of interest to all climate policy and decision-makers, but perhaps even more so to the governing bodies of the COP, who are the decision makers of the UNFCCC. The first recommendation is based on the finding that five different sufficient configurations have been identified, which shows the need for tailored strategies. For example, specific taxes can be introduced for countries that are highly dependent on natural resources, making it less attractive to show little ambition in their NDCs. The second recommendation is to emphasize just transitions principles. This recommendation is based on the finding that GNI plays an ambiguous role, and that countries with ambitious NDCs set unrealistic goals in the hope to receive financial support. Policymakers and decision-makers should focus on achieving an equitable transition, addressing country-specific challenges, and sharing the benefits of achieving PA equitably. This implies a fair distribution of both the expenses and the gains. The third recommendation is the use of iterative risk management. This recommendation is based on the finding that being vulnerable to climate change is a prerequisite for submitting ambitious NDCs. It is likely that more countries will become vulnerable to the climate as global surface temperatures rise. Iterative risk management is a framework for making decisions in such complex contexts that are marked by large potential impacts, long timeframes, and multiple climatic and non-climatic influences that change over time. Evaluating a wide range of potential impacts is critical to understand when submitting NDCs.