This study evaluates the technoeconomic impacts of direct and indirect electrification on the EU's net-zero emissions target by 2050. By linking the JRC-EU-TIMES long-term energy system model with PLEXOS hourly resolution power system model, this research offers a detailed analysis of the interactions between electricity, hydrogen and synthetic fuel demand, production technologies, and their effects on the power sector. It highlights the importance of high temporal resolution power system analysis to capture the synergistic effects of these components, often overlooked in isolated studies. Results indicate that direct electrification increases significantly and unimpacted by biomass, CCS, and nuclear energy assumptions. However indirect electrification in the form of hydrogen varies significantly, between 1400 and 2200 TWh_H2 by 2050. Synthetic fuels are essential for sector coupling, making up 6–12% of total energy consumption by 2050, with the power sector supplying most hydrogen and CO₂ for their production. Varying levels of indirect electrification impact electrolysers, renewable energy, and firm capacities. Higher indirect electrification increases electrolyser capacity factors by 8%, leading to more renewable energy curtailment but improves system reliability by reducing 11 TWh unserved energy and increasing flexibility options. These insights inform EU energy policies, stressing the need for a balanced approach to electrification, biomass use, and CCS to achieve a sustainable and reliable net-zero energy system by 2050. We also explore limitations and sensitivities.

@en

The transition of the European iron and steel industry (ISI) towards low-carbon manufacturing is crucial for the European Union (EU)’s 2050 climate neutrality objective. One emerging solution is electrification by using hydrogen (H₂) as iron ore reductant, which increases specific electricity use per tonne of steel up to 35 times compared to the conventional, most adopted coal-based technology. This study develops three scenarios, encompassing a moderate to an accelerated ISI transition, to evaluate the impact of the ISI decarbonisation on the power system CO₂ emissions, generation mix and volume, and marginal prices in 2030. The study first estimates future electricity and H₂ demand by considering country-specific technologies deployment and energy intensities. Then, these estimates serves as input to the model METIS to simulate European power system operations through a unit commitment and economic dispatch problem. The study shows that the power system can accommodate a transition of the ISI that substitutes 28% of the coal-based production with low carbon technologies, mainly based on H₂. This leads to a 25% reduction in direct CO₂ emissions and a demand increase of 20 TWh of electricity and 40 TWh_HHV of H₂. Furthermore, a 50% reduction in indirect power system emissions is achieved, compared to 2018, thanks to the substantial renewable power capacity deployment foreseen in the coming years. The study also demonstrates that a reduction of indirect CO₂ emissions by over 85% can be achieved by deploying 1.2 and 2.7 GW of renewable power generators, and 200 and 400 MW of electrolyser capacity for each million tonne of steel produced annually with low-carbon technologies. Additional renewable capacity that ensures green steel production is also key to maintaining stable electricity prices.

@en

The decarbonisation of the iron and steel industry is expected to significantly increase its electricity consumption due to higher levels of electrification and the partial shift to hydrogen as iron reductant. With its batch processes, this industry offers large potential for the application of demand response strategies to achieve electricity cost savings. Previous research has primarily focused on investigating the demand response potential for currently operating manufacturing processes and partly for future low-carbon processes. This study aims to consolidate this knowledge and apply it to a modelling analysis that investigates the demand response potential of two new low-carbon technologies: the hydrogen-based direct reduction of iron with electric arc furnace technology (H2-DRI-EAF) and the blast furnace basic oxygen furnace technology retrofitted with carbon capture (BF-BOF-CCUS). A cost optimisation approach is applied to plant configurations with varying parameters relevant for flexibility, such as electrolyser and storage sizes, and in the context of future electricity prices. Multiple price profiles are selected to encompass uncertainties on the development of the power system. The potential for a H2-DRI-EAF plant is 3–27 times higher than for a BF-BOF-CCUS, with electricity costs savings potentials of 35% and 3%, respectively. The study finds that electricity prices have the most significant impact on the profitability of investing in electrolyser overcapacities, which enable operating costs reduction. Therefore, the profitability of these investments are strongly dependent on future power system configurations.@en

European electricity markets ensure the matching between supply and demand at all times. Due to their time-scale operations, the balancing markets are the last resources to achieve so and ensure the grid frequency. The increasing shares of non-dispatchable power capacities intensify the demand for flexibility. District heating systems (DHs) are potential sources of flexibility if interface technologies are in place like CHP or power-to-heat, together with thermal storage. This study assesses the technical potential of DHs to contribute to frequency containment reserves (FCR), automatic and manual frequency restoration reserves (aFRR and mFRR) markets. Through a review of case-studies, we gain insight and derive appropriate assumptions to estimate the potential at country and EU levels. Based on the POTEnCIA Central scenario up to 2050 — a description of the evolution of the EU energy system with the assumption of no further policies introduced beyond 2017 —, we find that the potential is highest for the provision of aFRR, followed by mFRR and FCR. Specifically, the aFRR technical potential is currently 32 GW — 4 times the aFRR contracted in 2019 in the EU — and it only slightly decreases by 2050. Overall, this study highlights the lack of data on current (and future) DHs and their variety in size and composition. A sensitivity analysis is performed by examining different scenarios for DHs deployment. This research emphasizes the large untapped potential to exploit flexibility from DHs, however, the evaluation of the actual potential shall be done on a case-by-case basis.@en