This study evaluates the technoeconomic impacts of direct and indirect electrification on the EU's net-zero emissions target by 2050. By linking the JRC-EU-TIMES long-term energy system model with PLEXOS hourly resolution power system model, this research offers a detailed analysis of the interactions between electricity, hydrogen and synthetic fuel demand, production technologies, and their effects on the power sector. It highlights the importance of high temporal resolution power system analysis to capture the synergistic effects of these components, often overlooked in isolated studies. Results indicate that direct electrification increases significantly and unimpacted by biomass, CCS, and nuclear energy assumptions. However indirect electrification in the form of hydrogen varies significantly, between 1400 and 2200 TWh_H2 by 2050. Synthetic fuels are essential for sector coupling, making up 6–12% of total energy consumption by 2050, with the power sector supplying most hydrogen and CO₂ for their production. Varying levels of indirect electrification impact electrolysers, renewable energy, and firm capacities. Higher indirect electrification increases electrolyser capacity factors by 8%, leading to more renewable energy curtailment but improves system reliability by reducing 11 TWh unserved energy and increasing flexibility options. These insights inform EU energy policies, stressing the need for a balanced approach to electrification, biomass use, and CCS to achieve a sustainable and reliable net-zero energy system by 2050. We also explore limitations and sensitivities.

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The relevance of sector coupling is increasing when shifting from the current highly centralised and mainly fossil fuel-based energy system to a more decentralized and renewable energy system. Cross-sectoral linkages are already recognized as a cost-effective decarbonisation strategy that provides significant flexibility to the system. Modelling such cross-sectoral interconnections is thus highly relevant. In this work, these interactions are considered in a long-term perspective by uni-directional soft-linking of two models: JRC-EU-TIMES, a long term planning multisectoral model, and Dispa-SET, a unit commitment and optimal dispatch model covering multiple energy sectors such as power, heating & cooling, transportation etc. The impact of sector coupling in future Europe-wide energy systems with high shares of renewables is evaluated through five scenarios. Results show that the contributions of individual sectors are quite diverse. The transport sector provides the highest flexibility potential in terms of power curtailment, load shedding, congestion in the interconnection lines and resulting greenhouse gas emissions reduction. Nevertheless, allowing combinations of multiple flexibility options such as hydro for the long-term, electric vehicles and flexible thermal units for the short-term provides the best solution in terms of system adequacy, greenhouse gas emissions and operational costs.@en