This study evaluates the technoeconomic impacts of direct and indirect electrification on the EU's net-zero emissions target by 2050. By linking the JRC-EU-TIMES long-term energy system model with PLEXOS hourly resolution power system model, this research offers a detailed analysis of the interactions between electricity, hydrogen and synthetic fuel demand, production technologies, and their effects on the power sector. It highlights the importance of high temporal resolution power system analysis to capture the synergistic effects of these components, often overlooked in isolated studies. Results indicate that direct electrification increases significantly and unimpacted by biomass, CCS, and nuclear energy assumptions. However indirect electrification in the form of hydrogen varies significantly, between 1400 and 2200 TWh_H2 by 2050. Synthetic fuels are essential for sector coupling, making up 6–12% of total energy consumption by 2050, with the power sector supplying most hydrogen and CO₂ for their production. Varying levels of indirect electrification impact electrolysers, renewable energy, and firm capacities. Higher indirect electrification increases electrolyser capacity factors by 8%, leading to more renewable energy curtailment but improves system reliability by reducing 11 TWh unserved energy and increasing flexibility options. These insights inform EU energy policies, stressing the need for a balanced approach to electrification, biomass use, and CCS to achieve a sustainable and reliable net-zero energy system by 2050. We also explore limitations and sensitivities.

This research aims to investigate the potential impact of national policies on the attainment of Europe's goal of achieving net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. Specifically, it analyses the effects of policies on the power sector, by evaluating capacity expansion portfolios, import reliance, and costs by 2050. A linear programming model, the IESA-EUPS, is utilized to optimize the expansion and operation of the power system, considering 28 nodes and hourly temporal resolution. The study includes five scenarios from 2020 to 2050, with varying levels of biomass and nuclear penetration based on existing member state policies. Results show that by 2050, changes mainly occur in the interplay between firm capacities and cross-border transmission levels. Limiting biomass can significantly increase nuclear energy generation, while enforcing all policies leads to a 40 % rise in cross-border transmission by 2050, due to imbalances between countries. Some member states, such as Spain and Finland, are less affected, whereas others are heavily reliant on firm nuclear capacities. Western European countries with strict biomass and nuclear restrictions may see a boost in nuclear installations in countries allowing it. Member states without both nuclear and biomass may rely more on variable renewables, resulting in surplus electricity and increased LCOE.

Importing substantial amount of green hydrogen from countries like South Africa, which have abundant solar and wind potentials to replace fossil fuels, has attracted interest in developed regions. This study analyses South African strategies for improving and decarbonizing the power sector while also producing hydrogen for export. These strategies include the Integrated Resource Plan, the Transmission Development Plan, Just Energy Transition and Hydrogen Society Roadmap for grid connected hydrogen production in 2030. Results based on an hourly resolution optimisation in Plexos indicate that annual grid-connected hydrogen production of 500 kt can lead to a 20–25% increase in the cost of electricity in scenarios with lower renewable energy penetration due to South African emission constraints by 2030. While the price of electricity is still in acceptable range, and the price of hydrogen can be competitive on the international market (2–3 USD/kgH₂ for production), the emission factor of this hydrogen is higher than the one of grey hydrogen, ranging from 13 to 24 kgCO2/kgh₂. When attempting to reach emission factors based on EU directives, the three policy roadmaps become unfeasible and free capacity expansion results in significant sixteen-fold increase of wind and seven-fold increase in solar installations compared to 2023 levels by 2030 in South Africa.

To achieve the European Union's goal of climate neutrality by 2050, negative emissions may be required to compensate for emissions exceeding allocated carbon budgets. Therefore, carbon removal technologies such as bioenergy with carbon capture (BECCS) and direct air capture (DAC) may need to play a pivotal role in the power system. To design carbon removal strategies, more insights are needed into the impact of sustainable biomass availability and the feasibility of carbon capture and storage (CCS), including the expensive and energy-intensive DAC on achieving net-zero and net-negative targets. Therefore, in this study the European power system in 2050 is modelled at an hourly resolution in the cost-minimization PLEXOS modelling platform. Three climate-neutral scenarios with targets of 0, -1, and -3.9 Mt CO₂/year (which agree with varying levels of climate justice) are assessed for different biomass levels, and CCS availability. Findings under baseline assumptions reveal that in a climate-neutral power system with biomass and CCS options, it is cost-effective to complement variable renewable energy with a mix of combined cycle natural gas turbines (CCNGT) for flexibility and BECCS as base load to compensate for the CO₂ emissions from natural gas and additional carbon removal in the net-negative scenarios. The role of these technologies becomes more prominent, with -3.9 GtCO₂/year target. Limited biomass availability necessitates additional 0.4–4 GtCO₂/year DAC, 10–50 GW CCNGT with CCS, and 10–50 GW nuclear. Excluding biomass doubles system costs and increases reliance on nuclear energy up to 300 TWh/year. The absence of CCS increases costs by 78%, emphasizing significant investments in bioenergy, nuclear power, hydrogen storage, and biogas. Sensitivity analysis and limitations of the study are fully discussed.