To meet the European Union's 2050 climate neutrality target, future electricity generation is expected to largely rely on variable renewable energy (VRE). VRE supply, being dependant on weather, is susceptible to changing climate conditions. Based on spatiotemporally explicit climate data under a Paris-proof climate scenario and a comprehensive energy conversion model, this study assesses the projected changes of European VRE supply from the perspective of average production, production variability, spatiotemporal complementarity, and risk of concurrent renewable energy droughts. For the period 2045–2055, we find a minor reduction in average wind and solar production for most of Europe compared to the period 1990–2010. At the country level, the impact of climate change on average VRE production is rather limited in magnitude (within ±3% for wind and ±2% for solar). The projected mid-term changes in other aspects of VRE supply are also relatively small. This suggests climate-related impacts on European VRE supply are less of a concern if the Paris-proof emission reduction pathway is strictly followed. Based on spectral analysis, we identify strong seasonal wind-solar complementarities (with an anticorrelation between -0.6 and -0.9) at the cross-regional level. This reduces the demand for seasonal storage but requires coordinated cross-border efforts to develop a pan-European transmission infrastructure. The risk of concurrent renewable energy droughts between a country and the rest of Europe remains non-negligible, even under the copperplate assumption. Central Western European countries and Poland are most vulnerable to such risk, suggesting the need for the planning of adequate flexibility resources.@en

The decarbonisation of the iron and steel industry is expected to significantly increase its electricity consumption due to higher levels of electrification and the partial shift to hydrogen as iron reductant. With its batch processes, this industry offers large potential for the application of demand response strategies to achieve electricity cost savings. Previous research has primarily focused on investigating the demand response potential for currently operating manufacturing processes and partly for future low-carbon processes. This study aims to consolidate this knowledge and apply it to a modelling analysis that investigates the demand response potential of two new low-carbon technologies: the hydrogen-based direct reduction of iron with electric arc furnace technology (H2-DRI-EAF) and the blast furnace basic oxygen furnace technology retrofitted with carbon capture (BF-BOF-CCUS). A cost optimisation approach is applied to plant configurations with varying parameters relevant for flexibility, such as electrolyser and storage sizes, and in the context of future electricity prices. Multiple price profiles are selected to encompass uncertainties on the development of the power system. The potential for a H2-DRI-EAF plant is 3–27 times higher than for a BF-BOF-CCUS, with electricity costs savings potentials of 35% and 3%, respectively. The study finds that electricity prices have the most significant impact on the profitability of investing in electrolyser overcapacities, which enable operating costs reduction. Therefore, the profitability of these investments are strongly dependent on future power system configurations.@en

In the EU28, the meat and dairy supply chains emitted 360 Mt CO2-eq or 80% of all agricultural CH4 and N2O emissions in 2016, which must be reduced to reach net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. Our research explores how far these emissions can be reduced by combining field tested mitigation measures for beef cattle, dairy cattle, swine, sheep, and synthetic fertilizers. Many mitigation measures targeting enteric fermentation, manure management, and fertilizer application have been experimentally tested; however, the impact of combining measures is relatively unexplored. To address this knowledge gap, we use graph theory to create combinations of measures for which we calculate the overall mitigation potential. From previous review studies, we identified 44 measures and formulated rules on impossible and mandatory combinations of measures. Based on the resulting sets of feasible cliques in the graphs and a simplified technological baseline, we estimate that the combinations with the highest reductions reduce CH4 and N2O emissions from beef cattle by 57%, dairy cattle by 47%, swine by 70%, sheep by 48%, and synthetic fertilizers by 44%. Together, they can reduce CH4 and N2O emissions in the EU28 from meat and dairy production by 54%, and for agriculture overall by 42%. This indicates that implementing more measures in the meat and dairy sectors can create room for further reduction than in the existing modelled pathways for the EU28. However, technical measures are incapable of fully eliminating agricultural CH4 and N2O, so there remains a need for CO2 removal technologies.@en

This study aimed to explore the constraining and facilitating factors impacting the emergence and consolidation of different types of alternative food networks (AFNs) in different countries. Drawing on the expertise of organizers of seventeen AFNs, we investigated the conditions and actors that hinder and promote the development of different types of AFNs in Poland, Portugal and the Netherlands. Using a multi-actor perspective framework, we categorized six types of AFNs according to their logic and characteristics: consumer-led, producer-led, third-sector led, community supported agriculture, public-led, and business platforms. Key challenges and facilitating conditions varied according to AFN type, and depended on AFN particularities. In contrast to the Netherlands, low social capital was commonly cited as a challenge in Portugal and Poland. AFN organizers appeared to exercise innovative power when creating new forms of food provision; however, a wide scope of actions by governmental and non-governmental actors are needed to support the emergence of more AFNs.

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This paper investigates food waste dynamics in a retail alternative food network (AFN). We provide a first contribution to assess food waste in an AFN in terms of 1) food waste levels, 2) food waste causes, and 3) food waste management practices (i.e. food waste reduction and handling). We use an exploratory case-study to investigate food waste in a Polish AFN. We place the results of this case-study in the context of conventional retail, by reviewing retail food waste literature. Quantitative results show that food waste levels at the AFN are very low compared to conventional retail literature. Qualitative results show that food waste causes at the AFN are partly shared with conventional retail, and partly specific to the AFN. Possible explanations for low food waste are provided by the food waste management strategies, in which food waste prevention is a key component of the AFN practices. Two other possible explanations are the degree of flexibility and the main drivers of the organization. Conventional retail is ruled by top-down policies, focusing on profit-maximization. The AFN we studied is small-scale, independently organized, and non-profit. Its main driver is to balance financial viability, accessibility and ethical guidelines. Looking beyond profit allows for a high concern with food waste, while the autonomy of the organization gives its members flexibility to develop ways to prevent and handle food waste. Future research can build on our approach of combining food waste estimations with qualitative investigation of food waste causes and management practices. Food waste dynamics should be further investigated in other (retail) AFNs, in small-scale conventional and organic food retail, and in small and large-scale cooperative supermarkets.

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To decarbonize the European Union, protein consumption must transition to diets low in meat and dairy which will drastically change the material and energy flows in current meat and dairy supply chains. To understand the impacts on current flows, a baseline is required. Although recent studies have improved the scope of reported greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, no quantitative overview exists including intermediate and final product flows. To address this knowledge gap, we structured the meat and dairy supply chains into a connected set of transformation nodes and distribution nodes. The former are processes transforming inputs into outputs, whereas the latter distribute the outputs to other processes using them as inputs. Currently, livestock play a central role in agriculture and other industries through the consumption of 271 Mt fodder crops, 108 Mt grain, 85 Mt grazed biomass, 49 Mt oil meal, and 16 Mt feed by-products. This feed is transformed into 64 Mt dairy and 35 Mt meat which ensures that the EU28 is a net exporter of meat and dairy while providing 25 Mt of by-products. This production also leads to 435 Mt CO2-eq. with the main contribution from beef cattle (35%), dairy cattle (32%), and swine (20%). Thus, the lower GHG intensities of dairy products compared to meat do not imply a low contribution to the total emissions. By mapping the material, energy, and GHG emission flows, we have created a baseline suitable for identifying potential supply chain changes and their related GHG increase or decrease resulting from the protein transition.@en

Consumption of goods and services is a complex phenomenon at the root of environmental problems, but it is still often framed in terms of individual behaviour, which can be related to a lack of wide cross-disciplinary explanations for consumption. To contribute to filling this gap, we conducted a literature review across ten disciplines. We provide a cross-disciplinary overview of what influences consumption, juxtaposing dominant with less-heard explanations for consumption and adding cross-disciplinary evidence to counter the view of consumption as a chiefly individual phenomenon. The resulting conceptual framework depicts consumption as influenced by three levels that undergo historical transformations: the micro level of consumers, purposes and products; the meso level of the direct context in which consumption takes place; and the macro level of societal contexts and agents. Future research should investigate which kinds of interactions between levels, agents and contexts can lead to minimising social and environmental impacts of consumption.

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For reaching the 2 °C climate target, the robust growth of electricity generation from variable renewable energy sources (VRE) in the power sector is expected to continue. Accommodation of the power system to the variable, uncertain and locational-dependent outputs of VRE causes integration costs. Integrating VRE into a well-functioning electricity market can minimize integration costs and drive investments in VRE and complementary flexible resources. However, the electricity market in the European Union (EU), as currently designed, seems incapable to deliver this end. This paper aims to provide a comprehensive literature review of barriers to the large-scale market integration of VRE in the EU electricity market design. Based on the set-up of the EU electricity market, a framework was developed to incorporate the most pertinent market integration barriers and resulting market inefficiencies. This paper concludes that an overhaul is needed for the current EU electricity market to address all barriers identified. Firstly, a discrete auction intraday market, a marginal pricing balancing market, a two-price imbalance settlement and a nodal pricing locational marginal pricing mechanism seem more promising in limiting integration costs. Secondly, to support business cases of VRE and complementary flexible resources in the electricity market, a level playing field should be established and the price cap should be lifted up to the value of lost load (VOLL). Meanwhile, to fit VRE's market participation, a higher time resolution of trading products and later gate closure time in different submarkets would be required. Lastly, feed-in support schemes currently widely used for VRE investments might be inconsistent with market integration, as they increase integration costs and lock VRE investments in a subsidy-dependent pathway. To avoid such lock-in, further investigation of alternative capacity-based support schemes is recommended.@en

This study assesses the techno-economic performance of production lines for obtaining 1,3-butadiene and ε-caprolactam from C6 sugars. Process models were developed to assess their technical performance and to derive inputs for economic analysis. The economic assessment was carried out using net present value (NPV) and production costs as indicators. Sensitivity analyses were carried out to account for the effects of variations in inputs, such as processing capacity, valorization of humins, and prices, on the economic outputs. Results indicate that both production lines perform similarly from an energy intensity point of view (34-50 MJ/kg of main product). However, in terms of yield (kg of product per kg C6 sugar), caprolactam shows higher values by a factor of 1.6-3.6 in comparison to that of butadiene. The butadiene production line is not economically attractive, showing a negative NPV (-647 to -642 M€) and production costs 3-5 times higher than the reference market price (Case I 4369 €/tonne, Case II 3406 €/tonne). The caprolactam production line seems to be unfeasible with negative NPV (-229 M€) and production costs 30% higher than the reference price (Case III 2595 €/tonne, Case IV 1875 €/tonne). However, if the production yield is increased, the caprolactam production line becomes economically attractive with production costs 6% lower than its reference market price. The production costs of caprolactam can be further decreased if the process capacity is increased, reflecting the benefits of the economies of scale, as well as including heat and power produced from humins. Overall, the caprolactam production line shows higher economic potential.

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Calcium looping CO₂ capture is a promising technology to reduce CO₂ emissions from cement production. Coal has been seen as a logical choice of fuel to drive the calcium looping process as coal is already the primary fuel used to produce cement. This study assesses the impact of using different fuels, namely coal, natural gas, woody biomass and a fuel mix (50% coal, 25% biomass and 25% animal meal), on the environmental performance of tail-end calcium looping applied to the clinker production at a cement plant in North-western Europe. Process modelling was applied to determine the impact of the different fuels on the mass and energy balance of the process which were subsequently used to carry out a life cycle assessment to evaluate the environmental performance of the different systems. Using natural gas, biomass or a fuel mix instead of coal in a tail-end calcium looping process can improve the efficiency of the process, as it decreases fuel, limestone and electricity consumption. Consequently, while coal-fired calcium looping can reduce the global warming potential (life cycle CO₂ emissions) of clinker production by 75%, the use of natural gas further decreases these emissions (reduction of 86%) and biomass use could results in an almost carbon neutral (reduction of 95% in the fuel mix case) or net negative process (−104% reduction in the biomass case). Furthermore, replacing coal with natural gas or biomass reduces most other environmental impact categories as well, mostly due to avoided impacts from coal production. The level of improvement strongly depends on whether spent sorbent can be utilized in clinker production, and to what extent sequestered biogenic CO₂ can reduce global warming potential. Overall, the results illustrate the potential of using alternative fuels to improve the environmental performance of tail-end calcium looping in the cement industry.

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Consumption of meat is an important source of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emission and deep decarbonisation of the whole meat production chain is required to be able to meet global climate change (CC) mitigation goals. Emissions happen in different stages of meat production ranging from agricultural input production, feed production, livestock production to slaughtering, meat processing, and retail. An overview of direct emissions from processes in the meat sector themselves and indirect emissions from energy consumptions would provide a clearer picture for potential CC impact reduction. This paper explores the total GHG emissions and data availability within the meat sector of the pig, chicken, and cattle meat product system. Through statistical data provided by FAOSTAT and supplementary data from literature, the CC impacts of energy use and process GHG emissions in the pig, chicken and cattle meat life cycle are estimated. Cattle dominates, but pig and chicken meat have a sizable amount of GHG emissions with a relatively high contribution from agricultural inputs and post-farm processes. However, uncertainty and unavailability of data are large for the energy consumption, direct GHG emissions, and product flows of post-farm and agricultural input processes. In order to gain a more complete understanding of the total CC impacts of the meat sector, further research is necessary to reduce the uncertainty in the considered life cycle stages and to quantify the processes and meat products that have been excluded from this study.@en

Reaching the long term goals of climate policies requires the implementation of a portfolio of measures. This paper quantifies the potentials of energy efficiency technologies and CO₂ capture and storage (CCS) for seven Dutch industry sectors between 2008 and 2040. Economically viable energy efficiency technologies offer carbon dioxide (CO₂) emission reduction potentials of 25±8% in 2040 compared to 1990 levels. Economically viable CCS options can raise the industry's total emission reductions to 39-47%. These potentials require abatement costs above 90 € (Euro) per tonne CO₂, but they are still not sufficient to reach European Union's long term emission reduction plans. While economically viable potentials of improving energy efficiency may exist in all sectors (energy efficiency improvements of 2% per annum (p.a.)), attractive CCS potentials exist in the fertilizer, basic metal and refinery sectors with abatement costs estimated at 25-120 €/t CO₂ for 2040. Implementing CCS in these sectors would reduce total industry's primary energy efficiency improvement rates from 2% to 1.6% p.a. and would increase total industrial energy use by at least 10%. Reaching higher emission reductions in the Dutch industry will require the implementation of a portfolio of measures including energy and materials efficiency, renewables and CCS.

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In this paper, we assess energy demand due to fertilizer consumption in the period 1961-2001. Based on historical trends of gross energy requirements, we calculated that in 2001, global energy embedded in fertilizer consumption amounted to 3660 PJ, which represents about 1% of the global energy demand. Total energy demand has increased at an average rate of 3.8% p.a. Drivers behind the trend are rising fertilizer consumption and a shift towards more energy intensive fertilizers. Our results show that despite significant energy efficiency improvements in fertilizer manufacture (with exception of phosphate fertilizer in the last 20 years) improvements in energy efficiency have not been sufficient to offset growing energy demand due to rising fertilizer consumption. Furthermore, we found that specific energy consumption of ammonia and urea developed in close concordance with the learning curve model, showing progress ratios of 71% for ammonia production and 88% for urea. This suggests an alternative approach for including technological change in energy intensive industries in middle and long-term models dealing with energy consumption and CO₂ emissions, while few learning curves exist for energy efficiency of end use technologies.

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As part of its energy and climate policy the Dutch government has reached an agreement with the Dutch energy-intensive industry that is explicitly based on industry's relative energy efficiency performance. The energy efficiency of the Dutch industry is benchmarked against that of comparable industries in countries worldwide. In the agreement, industry is required to belong to the top-of-the-world in terms of energy efficiency. In return, the government refrains from implementing additional climate policies. This article assesses the potential effects of this agreement on energy consumption and CO2 emissions by comparing the current level of energy efficiency of the Dutch industry-including electricity production-to that of the most efficient countries and regions. At the current structure achieving the regional best practice level for the selected energy-intensive industries world result in a 5 ± 2% lower current primary energy consumption than the actual level. Most of the savings are expected in the petrochemical industry and in electricity generation. Avoided CO2 emissions would amount to 4 Mt CO2. A first estimate of the effect of the benchmarking agreement in 2012 suggests primary energy savings of 50-130 PJ or 4-9 Mt CO2 avoided compared to the estimated Business as Usual development (5-15%). This saving is smaller than what a continuation of the existing policies of Long-Term Agreements would probably deliver.@en

In light of the commitments accepted within the Framework Convention on Climate Change there is an increasing need for useful information on energy consumption and energy efficiency. Governments can use this information in designing policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and prioritizing energy savings options. International comparisons of energy efficiency can provide a benchmark against which a country's performance can be measured and policies can be evaluated. A methodology for international comparisons of industrial energy efficiency was developed by the International Network on Energy Demand analysis in the Industrial Sector. In this paper this methodology is used to analyze the energy efficiency of two energy-intensive industries in major developing countries. Energy consumption trends are shown for the steel and cement industry and an analysis is made of technologies used. In light of the Byrd-Hagel resolution, which states that the U.S. will not ratify any climate treaty unless it also mandates commitments to limit greenhouse gas emissions for developing countries, the energy efficiency in the two sectors is compared to that of the U.S. The analysis shows that in the iron and steel sector South Korea and Brazil are more energy-efficient than the U.S, while Mexico has achieved a comparable energy efficiency level in recent years. For Cement, South Korea, Brazil and Mexico are the most efficient countries analyzed. In recent years, China, and especially, India appear to have achieved energy efficiency levels, more or less comparable to that of the U.S. In light of data constraints, however, further analysis is required.

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A method for identifying and characterizing technologies that can improve the energy efficiency in the long term is described and applied to the paper and board industry. Current papermaking processes require 3-9 GJ heat per tonne of paper, mainly for the removal of water that is added initially to the fibers, and 1.3-2.9 GJ electricity/tonne. The selection of technologies is based on the results of an energy analysis of a paper mill. Seven relevant technologies are described. It is concluded that in the future paper-mill a combination of new pressing and drying techniques, latent heat recovery systems, and a number of minor improvements can reduce the specific heat demand by 75-90% compared to the current average. The specific electricity consumption will remain about equal or will increase slightly. Investment costs will be lower than for conventional paper-making processes. Benefits other than energy-efficiency improvement, e.g., an improved paper quality or a higher production rate, are the driving forces for the development of the technologies.@en

Techniques for the reduction of the specific energy consumption for iron and steel making are identified and characterized to assess the potential for future energy-efficiency improvement and research and development priorities. Worldwide average specific energy consumption for steel making is estimated to be 24 GJ/tonne. The most energy-efficient process requires 19 GJ/tonne for primary steel and 7 GJ/tonne for secondary steel. Seven specific smelting reduction processes and four groups of near-net-shape casting techniques are described and evaluated. In the longer term, the specific energy consumption for making steel from iron ore can be reduced to 12.5 GJ of primary steel per tonne. A further reduction of up to 2.5 GJ of crude steel per tonne may be achieved when techniques are developed that can recover and apply heat from the hot steel at a high temperature. The specific energy consumption for secondary steel making can be reduced to 3.5 GJ/tonne by energy-efficient melting and shaping techniques.@en

In the past, many studies on energy efficiency levels were not comparable due to differences in economic structure between countries. In the project 'International Comparisons of Energy Efficiency' efforts are undertaken to develop methods that do account for such differences. In this paper, we identify structural differences in energy intensive industries and describe ways to incorporate these differences in international comparisons of energy efficiency. For the iron and steel, aluminium, cement, pulp and paper, ammonia, chlorine and alkali, and petrochemicals sectors, structural differences mainly arise in product (quality) mix and import/export streams. In addition to structural indicators, also non-structural, explanatory indicators are identified, such as the penetration of energy efficient equipment and Combined Heat and Power generation. Feedstock mix and process type can either be structural or explanatory indicators, depending on whether or not product mix is affected. A number of issues regarding data quality and other pitfalls are described, mainly related to aggregation level and system boundaries between different industry sectors, and between the industry and energy transformation sectors. The methodologies developed show that structural differences can be taken into account in cross-country comparisons of energy efficiency if appropriate physical energy efficiency indicators are used.

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The objective of this paper is to obtain an insight into the potential for energy efficiency improvements in the Netherlands for the period 1990-2000. Using a database containing information on improvement potential and details of the costs of more than 400 energy efficient technologies, we determine the technical, economic and profitable potential in six economic sectors: heavy and light industry, households, services, transport and agriculture. It is shown that the potential varies considerably from sector to sector, ranging from 17% in transport to more than 70% in agriculture (average 36%). Governmental goals are technical feasible in all sectors. However, in light industry, the services sector and households the profitable potential using a three-year pay-back criterion is smaller than the governmental goal. A categorisation of measures is made. The largest single category is reduction of heat loss through surfaces, which can be achieved by insulation. Other important measures are combined generation of heat and power, and more efficient conversion of power to movement. Finally, the possible effect of a combination of an energy tax and an investment grand is investigated. It is shown that an increase in the energy price of 4.5 to 7% is sufficient to finance a 40% subsidy on investments in the industry and services sector. The average profitable potential increases from 17 to 22%. In households a tax of 11% is required to finance a 40% subsidy. However, in that case the profitable potential increases from 21 to 35%.@en

Eight major industrial processes are responsible for over 50% of industrial energy consumption in most countries. The energy efficiency of these processes was determined in a number of countries, with appropriate corrections for structural differences between countries. It is shown that considerable differences occur between countries, but that manufacturing industry in Eastern Europe in general is less efficient than in EU countries. In all cases efficiency is worse than what is technically and economically feasible. International comparisons provide information on energy efficiency differences, insight into technological differences between countries and into costs requirements for efficiency improvements. The comparisons can be used in international climate change negotiations and in the field of bilateral or multilateral cooperation.@en