We quantify the contributions of emissions from the transport sector to tropospheric ozone and the hydroxyl radical (OH) by means of model simulations with a global chemistry-climate model equipped with a source attribution method. For the first time we applied a method which also allows for quantifying contributions to OH which is invariant upon disaggregation or recombination and additive. Based on these quantified contributions, we analyse the ozone radiative forcing (RF) and methane lifetime reductions attributable to emissions from the transport sectors. The contributions were analysed for each transport sector separately and for 2015 as well as for 2050 under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) SSP1-1.9, SSP2-4.5, and SSP3-7.0. In line with previous publications using the source attribution approach, we quantify ozone RF attributable to emissions from land transport, shipping, and aviation for the year 2015 of 121, 60, and 31 mW m−2, respectively. At the same time, we diagnose a relative reduction in methane lifetime due to transport emissions of 14.3 % (land transport), 8.5 % (shipping), and 3.8 % (aviation). These reductions are significantly larger than reported by previous studies due to the application of the source attribution method. Compared to 2015, only SSP1-1.9 shows a strong decrease in ozone RF and methane lifetime reduction attributable to the entire transport sector in 2050. For the projections of SSP2-4.5, we find similar effects of the total transport sector as for 2015, while the effects in SSP3-7.0 increase compared to 2015. This small change in the effects for the two projections compared to 2015 is caused by two main factors. Firstly, aviation emissions are projected to increase in SSP2-4.5 (increase of 107 %) and SSP3-7.0 (+86 %) compared to 2015, resulting in projected ozone RF of 55 mW m−2 (+78 %) and 50 mW m−2 (+61 %) for the year 2050 from aviation emissions. Secondly, the non-linear effects of atmospheric chemistry in polluted regions such as Europe and North America lead to rather small reductions in ozone and OH in response to emission reductions, especially from land transport emissions. In addition, the increase in emissions from land transport in other parts of the world, particularly in South Asia, leads to an increased contribution of ozone and OH. In particular, ozone formed by land transport emissions from South Asia causes strong RF that partially offsets the reductions in Europe and North America. Moreover, our results show that besides the non-linear response, lack of international cooperation, as in the SSP3-7.0 projection, hinders mitigation of ground-level ozone.@en

We report on an inconsistency in the latitudinal distribution of aviation emissions between the data products of phases 5 and 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). Emissions in the CMIP6 data occur at higher latitudes than in the CMIP5 data for all scenarios, years, and emitted species. A comparative simulation with the chemistry-climate model ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) reveals that the difference in nitrogen oxide emission distribution leads to reduced overall ozone changes due to aviation in the CMIP6 scenarios because in those scenarios the distribution of emissions is partly shifted towards the chemically less active higher latitudes. The radiative forcing associated with aviation ozone is 7.6% higher, and the decrease in methane lifetime is 5.7% larger for the year 2015 when using the CMIP5 latitudinal distribution of emissions compared to when using the CMIP6 distribution. We do not find a statistically significant difference in the radiative forcing associated with aviation aerosol emissions. In total, future studies investigating the effects of aviation emissions on ozone and climate should consider the inconsistency reported here.

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Emissions of aviation include CO2, H2O, NOx, sulfur oxides, and soot. Many studies have investigated the annual mean climate impact of aviation emissions. While CO2 has a long atmospheric residence time and is almost uniformly distributed in the atmosphere, non-CO2 gases and particles and their products have short atmospheric residence times and are heterogeneously distributed. The climate impact of non-CO2 aviation emissions is known to vary with different meteorological background situations. The aim of this study is to systematically investigate the influence of characteristic weather situations on aviation climate effects over the North Atlantic region, to identify the most sensitive areas, and to potentially detect systematic weather-related similarities. If aircraft were re-routed to avoid climate-sensitive regions, the overall aviation climate impact might be reduced. Hence, the sensitivity of the atmosphere to local emissions provides a basis for the assessment of weather-related, climate-optimized flight trajectory planning. To determine the climate change contribution of an individual emission as a function of location, time, and weather situation, the radiative impact of local emissions of NOx and H2O to changes in O3, CH4, H2O and contrail cirrus was computed by means of the ECHAM5/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry model. From this, 4-dimensional climate change functions (CCFs) were derived. Typical weather situations in the North Atlantic region were considered for winter and summer. Weather-related differences in O3, CH4, H2O, and contrail cirrus CCFs were investigated. The following characteristics were identified: enhanced climate impact of contrail cirrus was detected for emissions in areas with large-scale lifting, whereas low climate impact of contrail cirrus was found in the area of the jet stream. Northwards of 60° N, contrails usually cause climate warming in winter, independent of the weather situation. NOx emissions cause a high positive climate impact if released in the area of the jet stream or in high-pressure ridges, which induces a south- and downward transport of the emitted species, whereas NOx emissions at, or transported towards, high latitudes cause low or even negative climate impact. Independent of the weather situation, total NOx effects show a minimum at ∼250g hPa, increasing towards higher and lower altitudes, with generally higher positive impact in summer than in winter. H2O emissions induce a high climate impact when released in regions with lower tropopause height, whereas low climate impact occurs for emissions in areas with higher tropopause height. H2O CCFs generally increase with height and are larger in winter than in summer. The CCFs of all individual species can be combined, facilitating the assessment of total climate impact of aircraft trajectories considering CO2 and spatially and temporally varying non-CO2 effects. Furthermore, they allow for the optimization of aircraft trajectories with reduced overall climate impact. This also facilitates a fair evaluation of trade-offs between individual species. In most regions, NOx and contrail cirrus dominate the sensitivity to local aviation emissions. The findings of this study recommend considering weather-related differences for flight trajectory optimization in favour of reducing total climate impact.

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Emissions of aviation include CO2, H2O, NOx and particles. While CO2 has a long atmospheric residence time and is uniformly distributed in the atmosphere, non-CO2 gases, particles and their products have short atmospheric residence times and are heterogeneously distributed. Their climate effects depend on chemical and meteorological background conditions during emission, which vary with geographic location, altitude, time, local insolation, actual weather, etc. This spatial and temporal variability can be utilized for aviation climate impact mitigation by identifying aircraft trajectories which avoid climate-sensitive regions. To determine the climate change contribution of individual emissions as function of 3-dimensional position, time and weather situation, contributions of local emissions to changes in O3, CH4, H2O and contrail-cirrus were computed by means of the ECHAM5/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry model and four-dimensional climate change functions (CCFs) were derived thereof. Typical weather situations in the North Atlantic region were considered for winter and summer. For all non-CO2 species included in the study, we found distinct weather related differences with respect to their climate impact. Depending on the species, we found enhanced significance of the position of emission release in relation to high pressure systems, in relation to the jet stream, in relation to polar night and in relation to the tropopause altitude. The dominating parameters were found to be contrail-cirrus and total NOx. The results of this study represent a comprehensive basis for weather dependent flight trajectory optimization studies. Furthermore it constitutes the groundwork for the development of more generally applicable algorithmic CCFs. @en

Current air traffic routing is motivated by minimizing economic costs, such as fuel use. In addition to the climate impact of CO2 emissions from this fuel use, aviation contributes to climate change through non-CO2 impacts, such as changes in atmospheric ozone and methane concentrations and formation of contrail-cirrus. These non-CO2 impacts depend significantly on where and when the aviation emissions occur. The climate impact of aviation could be reduced if flights were routed to avoid regions where emissions have the largest impact. Here, we present the first results where a climate-optimized routing strategy is simulated for all trans-Atlantic flights on 5 winter and 3 summer days, which are typical of representative winter and summer North Atlantic weather patterns. The optimization separately considers eastbound and westbound flights, and accounts for the effects of wind on the flight routes, and takes safety aspects into account. For all days considered, we find multiple feasible combinations of flight routes which have a smaller overall climate impact than the scenario which minimizes economic cost. We find that even small changes in routing, which increase the operating costs (mainly fuel) by only 1% lead to considerable reductions in climate impact of 10%. This cost increase could be compensated by market-based measures, if costs for non-CO2 climate impacts were included. Our methodology is a starting point for climate-optimized flight planning, which could also be applied globally. Although there are challenges to implementing such a system, we present a road map with the steps to overcome these. @en

Three types of reference simulations, as recommended by the Chemistry–Climate Model Initiative (CCMI), have been performed with version 2.51 of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts – Hamburg (ECHAM)/Modular Earth Submodel System (MESSy) Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) model: hindcast simulations (1950–2011), hindcast simulations with specified dynamics (1979–2013), i.e. nudged towards ERA-Interim reanalysis data, and combined hindcast and projection simulations (1950–2100). The manuscript summarizes the updates of the model system and details the different model set-ups used, including the on-line calculated diagnostics. Simulations have been performed with two different nudging set-ups, with and without interactive tropospheric aerosol, and with and without a coupled ocean model. Two different vertical resolutions have been applied. The on-line calculated sources and sinks of reactive species are quantified and a first evaluation of the simulation results from a global perspective is provided as a quality check of the data. The focus is on the intercomparison of the different model set-ups. The simulation data will become publicly available via CCMI and the Climate and Environmental Retrieval and Archive (CERA) database of the German Climate Computing Centre (DKRZ). This manuscript is intended to serve as an extensive reference for further analyses of the Earth System Chemistry integrated Modelling (ESCiMo) simulations.@en