Three types of reference simulations, as recommended by the Chemistry–Climate Model Initiative (CCMI), have been performed with version 2.51 of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts – Hamburg (ECHAM)/Modular Earth Submodel System (MESSy) Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) model: hindcast simulations (1950–2011), hindcast simulations with specified dynamics (1979–2013), i.e. nudged towards ERA-Interim reanalysis data, and combined hindcast and projection simulations (1950–2100). The manuscript summarizes the updates of the model system and details the different model set-ups used, including the on-line calculated diagnostics. Simulations have been performed with two different nudging set-ups, with and without interactive tropospheric aerosol, and with and without a coupled ocean model. Two different vertical resolutions have been applied. The on-line calculated sources and sinks of reactive species are quantified and a first evaluation of the simulation results from a global perspective is provided as a quality check of the data. The focus is on the intercomparison of the different model set-ups. The simulation data will become publicly available via CCMI and the Climate and Environmental Retrieval and Archive (CERA) database of the German Climate Computing Centre (DKRZ). This manuscript is intended to serve as an extensive reference for further analyses of the Earth System Chemistry integrated Modelling (ESCiMo) simulations.@en

Because tropospheric ozone is both a greenhouse gas and harmful air pollutant, it is important to understand how anthropogenic activities may influence its abundance and distribution through the 21st century. Here, we present model simulations performed with the chemistry-climate model SOCOL, in which spatially disaggregated chemistry and transport tracers have been implemented in order to better understand the distribution and projected changes in tropospheric ozone. We examine the influences of ozone precursor emissions (nitrogen oxides (NO_x), carbon monoxide (CO) and volatile organic compounds (VOCs)), climate change (including methane effects) and stratospheric ozone recovery on the tropospheric ozone budget, in a simulation following the climate scenario Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 6.0 (a medium-high, and reasonably realistic climate scenario). Changes in ozone precursor emissions have the largest effect, leading to a global-mean increase in tropospheric ozone which maximizes in the early 21st century at 23% compared to 1960. The increase is most pronounced at northern midlatitudes, due to regional emission patterns: between 1990 and 2060, northern midlatitude tropospheric ozone remains at constantly large abundances: 31% larger than in 1960. Over this 70-year period, attempts to reduce emissions in Europe and North America do not have an effect on zonally averaged northern midlatitude ozone because of increasing emissions from Asia, together with the long lifetime of ozone in the troposphere. A simulation with fixed anthropogenic ozone precursor emissions of NO_x, CO and non-methane VOCs at 1960 conditions shows a 6% increase in global-mean tropospheric ozone by the end of the 21st century, with an 11 % increase at northern midlatitudes. This increase maximizes in the 2080s and is mostly caused by methane, which maximizes in the 2080s following RCP 6.0, and plays an important role in controlling ozone directly, and indirectly through its influence on other VOCs and CO. Enhanced flux of ozone from the stratosphere to the troposphere as well as climate change-induced enhancements in lightning NO_x emissions also increase the tropospheric ozone burden, although their impacts are relatively small. Overall, the results show that under this climate scenario, ozone in the future is governed largely by changes in methane and NO_x; methane induces an increase in tropospheric ozone that is approximately one-third of that caused by NO_x. Climate impacts on ozone through changes in tropospheric temperature, humidity and lightning NO_x remain secondary compared with emission strategies relating to anthropogenic emissions of NO_x, such as fossil fuel burning. Therefore, emission policies globally have a critical role to play in determining tropospheric ozone evolution through the 21st century.

@en