The Greenland Ice Sheet is losing mass at accelerated rates in the 21st century, making it the largest single contributor to rising sea levels. Faster flow of outlet glaciers has substantially contributed to this loss, with the cause of speedup, and potential for future change, uncertain. Here we combine more than three decades of remotely sensed observational products of outlet glacier velocity, elevation, and front position changes over the full ice sheet. We compare decadal variability in discharge and calving front position and find that increased glacier discharge was due almost entirely to the retreat of glacier fronts, rather than inland ice sheet processes, with a remarkably consistent speedup of 4–5% per km of retreat across the ice sheet. We show that widespread retreat between 2000 and 2005 resulted in a step-increase in discharge and a switch to a new dynamic state of sustained mass loss that would persist even under a decline in surface melt.@en

Compared to other Arctic ice masses, Svalbard glaciers are low-elevated with flat interior accumulation areas, resulting in a marked peak in their current hypsometry (area-elevation distribution) at ~450 m above sea level. Since summer melt consistently exceeds winter snowfall, these low-lying glaciers can only survive by refreezing a considerable fraction of surface melt and rain in the porous firn layer covering their accumulation zones. We use a high-resolution climate model to show that modest atmospheric warming in the mid-1980s forced the firn zone to retreat upward by ~100 m to coincide with the hypsometry peak. This led to a rapid areal reduction of firn cover available for refreezing, and strongly increased runoff from dark, bare ice areas, amplifying mass loss from all elevations. As the firn line fluctuates around the hypsometry peak in the current climate, Svalbard glaciers will continue to lose mass and show high sensitivity to temperature perturbations.

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Snow and ice albedo schemes in present-day climate models often lack a sophisticated radiation penetration scheme and do not explicitly include spectral albedo variations. In this study, we evaluate a new snow albedo scheme in the Regional Atmospheric Climate Model (RACMO2) for the Greenland ice sheet, version 2.3p3, that includes these processes. The new albedo scheme uses the TwostreAm Radiative TransfEr in Snow (TARTES) model and the Spectral-To-NarrOWBand ALbedo (SNOWBAL) module, version 1.2. Additionally, the bare-ice albedo parameterization has been updated. The snow and ice broadband and narrowband albedo output of the updated version of RACMO2 is evaluated using the Programme for Monitoring of the Greenland Ice Sheet (PROMICE) and Kangerlussuaq transect (K-Transect) in situ data and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) remote-sensing observations. Generally, the modeled narrowband and broadband albedo is in very good agreement with satellite observations, leading to a negligible domain-Averaged broadband albedo bias for the interior. Some discrepancies are, however, observed close to the ice margin. Compared to the previous model version, RACMO2.3p2, the broadband albedo is considerably higher in the bare-ice zone during the ablation season, as atmospheric conditions now alter the bare-ice broadband albedo. For most other regions, however, the updated broadband albedo is lower due to spectral effects, radiation penetration or enhanced snow metamorphism.

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Recent research shows increasing decadal ice mass losses from the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets and more generally from glaciers worldwide in the light of continued global warming. Here, in an update of our previous ISMASS paper (Hanna et al., 2013), we review recent observational estimates of ice sheet and glacier mass balance, and their related uncertainties, first briefly considering relevant monitoring methods. Focusing on the response to climate change during 1992–2018, and especially the post-IPCC AR5 period, we discuss recent changes in the relative contributions of ice sheets and glaciers to sea-level change. We assess recent advances in understanding of the relative importance of surface mass balance and ice dynamics in overall ice-sheet mass change. We also consider recent improvements in ice-sheet modelling, highlighting data-model linkages and the use of updated observational datasets in ice-sheet models. Finally, by identifying key deficiencies in the observations and models that hamper current understanding and limit reliability of future ice-sheet projections, we make recommendations to the research community for reducing these knowledge gaps. Our synthesis aims to provide a critical and timely review of the current state of the science in advance of the next Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Report that is due in 2021.

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We present a reconstruction of historical (1950–2014) surface mass balance (SMB) of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) using a high-resolution regional climate model (RACMO2; ∼ 11 km) to dynamically downscale the climate of the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2; ∼ 111 km). After further statistical downscaling to 1 km spatial resolution, evaluation using in situ SMB measurements and remotely sensed GrIS mass change shows good agreement. Comparison with an ensemble of previously conducted RACMO2 simulations forced by climate reanalysis demonstrates that the current product realistically represents the long-term average and variability of individual SMB components and captures the recent increase in meltwater runoff that accelerated GrIS mass loss. This means that, for the first time, climate forcing from an Earth system model (CESM2), which assimilates no observations, can be used without additional corrections to reconstruct the historical GrIS SMB and its recent decline that initiated mass loss in the 1990s. This paves the way for attribution studies of future GrIS mass loss projections and contribution to sea level rise.
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Since the early 1990s, the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) has been losing mass at an accelerating rate, primarily due to enhanced meltwater runoff following atmospheric warming. Here, we show that a pronounced latitudinal contrast exists in the GrIS response to recent warming. The ablation area in north Greenland expanded by 46%, almost twice as much as in the south (+25%), significantly increasing the relative contribution of the north to total GrIS mass loss. This latitudinal contrast originates from a different response to the recent change in large-scale Arctic summertime atmospheric circulation, promoting southwesterly advection of warm air toward the GrIS. In the southwest, persistent high atmospheric pressure reduced cloudiness, increasing runoff through enhanced absorption of solar radiation; in contrast, increased early-summer cloudiness in north Greenland enhanced atmospheric warming through decreased longwave heat loss. This triggered a rapid snowline retreat, causing early bare ice exposure, amplifying northern runoff.

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Surface mass balance (SMB) provides mass input to the surface of the Antarctic and Greenland Ice Sheets and therefore comprises an important control on ice sheet mass balance and resulting contribution to global sea level change. As ice sheet SMB varies highly across multiple scales of space (meters to hundreds of kilometers) and time (hourly to decadal), it is notoriously challenging to observe and represent in models. In addition, SMB consists of multiple components, all of which depend on complex interactions between the atmosphere and the snow/ice surface, large-scale atmospheric circulation and ocean conditions, and ice sheet topography. In this review, we present the state-of-the-art knowledge and recent advances in ice sheet SMB observations and models, highlight current shortcomings, and propose future directions. Novel observational methods allow mapping SMB across larger areas, longer time periods, and/or at very high (subdaily) temporal frequency. As a recent observational breakthrough, cosmic ray counters provide direct estimates of SMB, circumventing the need for accurate snow density observations upon which many other techniques rely. Regional atmospheric climate models have drastically improved their simulation of ice sheet SMB in the last decade, thanks to the inclusion or improved representation of essential processes (e.g., clouds, blowing snow, and snow albedo), and by enhancing horizontal resolution (5–30 km). Future modeling efforts are required in improving Earth system models to match regional atmospheric climate model performance in simulating ice sheet SMB, and in reinforcing the efforts in developing statistical and dynamic downscaling to represent smaller-scale SMB processes.

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The Greenland Ice Sheet has been a major contributor to global sea-level rise in recent decades ^1,2, and it is expected to continue to be so ³. Although increases in glacier flow ^4–6 and surface melting ^7–9 have been driven by oceanic ^10–12 and atmospheric ^13,14 warming, the magnitude and trajectory of the ice sheet’s mass imbalance remain uncertain. Here we compare and combine 26 individual satellite measurements of changes in the ice sheet’s volume, flow and gravitational potential to produce a reconciled estimate of its mass balance. The ice sheet was close to a state of balance in the 1990s, but annual losses have risen since then, peaking at 345 ± 66 billion tonnes per year in 2011. In all, Greenland lost 3,902 ± 342 billion tonnes of ice between 1992 and 2018, causing the mean sea level to rise by 10.8 ± 0.9 millimetres. Using three regional climate models, we show that the reduced surface mass balance has driven 1,964 ± 565 billion tonnes (50.3 per cent) of the ice loss owing to increased meltwater runoff. The remaining 1,938 ± 541 billion tonnes (49.7 per cent) of ice loss was due to increased glacier dynamical imbalance, which rose from 46 ± 37 billion tonnes per year in the 1990s to 87 ± 25 billion tonnes per year since then. The total rate of ice loss slowed to 222 ± 30 billion tonnes per year between 2013 and 2017, on average, as atmospheric circulation favoured cooler conditions ¹⁵ and ocean temperatures fell at the terminus of Jakobshavn Isbræ ¹⁶. Cumulative ice losses from Greenland as a whole have been close to the rates predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for their high-end climate warming scenario ¹⁷, which forecast an additional 70 to 130 millimetres of global sea-level rise by 2100 compared with their central estimate.

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Transient meltwater accumulation in Greenland spans the entire ice layer, down to the ice bed. As such, this process may have a large impact on Greenland ice dynamics and on the future ice sheet evolution. GrIS subglacial hydrology is an area of active research. Unfortunately, it is difficult to validate and calibrate existing subglacial hydrology models because of intrinsic data limitations. Data collected in situ or from aircraft have a very limited spatial or/and temporal coverage, whereas space-borne electromagnetic sensors (both passive and active) are capable of observing only the near-surface part of the ice layer. With our study, we present the first direct observations of transient meltwater accumulation in Greenland with satellite gravimetry. We estimate total mass anomalies using GRACE satellite mission data and subtract from them the contributions associated with the Surface Mass Balance (SMB) and the Ice Discharge (ID). The SMB estimates are provided by the Regional Atmospheric Climate Model v. 2.3 (RACMO 2.3). The signal related to ID is approximated by a linear function fitting the “Total minus SMB” residuals in spring and autumn months. An analysis of seasonal variations in ice flow at 55 outlet glaciers in northwest and southeast Greenland shows that the deviations of ID-related mass anomalies from a linear trend are negligible. By taking the average of seasonal mass variations in 2003–2013, we observe substantial meltwater accumulation in Greenland during summer, with a peak value of 80-120 Gt in July. At the regional scale, the largest accumulation is observed in the southeast and northwest parts of Greenland: up to about 40 Gt in each region. The extracted signal is not altered substantially when using an alternative snow and firn model called SNOWPACK, which partitions meltwater into refreezing and runoff differently, as compared to RACMO 2.3. Furthermore, the meltwater accumulation signal is present in all of the considered GRACE data product variants and processing schemes, though with somewhat different magnitude and timing. Our study shows that GRACE data are capable of sensing transient meltwater accumulation not only at the scale of entire GrIS, but also at the scale of individual drainage systems. A continuation of research efforts is envisioned in order to further improve the accuracy of the obtained estimates.@en

The Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) is currently losing ice mass as the result of changes in the complex ice-climate interactions that have been driven by global climate change. In order to accurately predict future sea level rise, the mechanisms driving the observed mass loss must be better understood. Here, we combine data from the satellite gravimetry mission GRACE, surface mass balance (SMB) output of RACMO 2.3, and ice discharge estimates to analyze the mass budget of Greenland at various temporal and spatial scales. Firstly, in agreement with previous estimates, we find that the rate of mass loss from Greenland observed by GRACE was between −277 and −269 Gt/yr in 2003–2012. This estimate is consistent with the sum of individual contributions: surface mass balance (SMB, around 216 ± 122 Gt/yr) and ice discharge (520 ± 31 Gt/yr), indicating a good performance of the regional climate model. Secondly, we examine the average accelerations of mass anomalies in Greenland over 2003–2012, suggesting that the SMB (−23.3 ± 2.7 Gt/yr2) contributes 75 % to the total acceleration observed by GRACE. The remaining contributions to the mass loss acceleration for entire Greenland are statistically insignificant. Finally and most importantly, this study suggests the existence of a substantial meltwater storage during summer, with a peak value of 80–120 Gt in July. The robustness of this estimate is demonstrated by using both different GRACE-based solutions and different meltwater runoff estimates (namely, RACMO 2.3 and SNOWPACK). Meltwater storage in the ice sheet occurs primarily due to storage in the high-accumulation regions of the southeast (SE) and northwest (NW) parts of Greenland. Analysis of seasonal variations in outlet glacier discharge shows that the contribution of ice discharge to the observed signal is minor (at the level of only a few Gt) and does not explain the intra-annual differences between the total mass and SMB signals.@en

Rapid changes in thickness and velocity have been observed at many marine-terminating glaciers in Greenland, impacting the volume of ice they export, or discharge, from the ice sheet. While annual estimates of ice-sheet-wide discharge have been previously derived, higher-resolution records are required to fully constrain the temporal response of these glaciers to various climatic and mechanical drivers that vary in sub-annual scales. Here we sample outlet glaciers wider than 1 km (N=230) to derive the first continuous, ice-sheet-wide record of total ice sheet discharge for the 2000–2016 period, resolving a seasonal variability of 6 %. The amplitude of seasonality varies spatially across the ice sheet from 5 % in the southeastern region to 9 % in the northwest region. We analyze seasonal to annual variability in the discharge time series with respect to both modeled meltwater runoff, obtained from RACMO2.3p2, and glacier front position changes over the same period. We find that year-to-year changes in total ice sheet discharge are related to annual front changes (r2=0.59, p=10 −4 ) and that the annual magnitude of discharge is closely related to cumulative front position changes (r2=0.79), which show a net retreat of >400 km, or an average retreat of >2 km, at each surveyed glacier. Neither maximum seasonal runoff or annual runoff totals are correlated to annual discharge, which suggests that larger annual quantities of runoff do not relate to increased annual discharge. Discharge and runoff, however, follow similar patterns of seasonal variability with near-coincident periods of acceleration and seasonal maxima. These results suggest that changes in glacier front position drive secular trends in discharge, whereas the impact of runoff is likely limited to the summer months when observed seasonal variations are substantially controlled by the timing of meltwater input.@en

The Canadian Arctic Archipelago comprises multiple small glaciers and ice caps, mostly concentrated on Ellesmere and Baffin Islands in the northern (NCAA, Northern Canadian Arctic Archipelago) and southern parts (SCAA, Southern Canadian Arctic Archipelago) of the archipelago, respectively. Because
these glaciers are small and show complex geometries, current regional climate models, using 5- to 20-km horizontal resolution, do not properly resolve surface mass balance patterns. Here we present a 58-year (1958–2015) reconstruction of daily surface mass balance of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago, statistically
downscaled to 1 km from the output of the regional climate model RACMO2.3 at 11 km. By correcting for biases in elevation and ice albedo, the downscaling method significantly improves runoff estimates over narrow outlet glaciers and isolated ice fields. Since the last two decades, NCAA and SCAA glaciers
have experienced warmer conditions (+1.1 ∘ C) resulting in continued mass loss of 28.2±11.5 and 22.0±4.5 Gt/year, respectively, more than doubling (11.9 Gt/year) and doubling (11.9 Gt/year) the pre-1996 average. While the interior of NCAA ice caps can still buffer most of the additional melt, the lack
of a perennial firn area over low-lying SCAA glaciers has caused uninterrupted mass loss since the 1980s. In the absence of significant refreezing capacity, this indicates inevitable disappearance of these highly sensitive glaciers.
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Ice sheets are a major component of the Earth System, however they are not yet interactively coupled to most global climate models. Here we present past achievements in this front with the CESM1.0 version as well as first results and challenges with the upcoming CESM2.0, where the Community Ice Sheet Model 2.1 is bi-directionally coupled to the atmospheric and ocean components, as opposed to only one-way coupling in CESM1.0. In both CESM versions, the surface mass balance (SMB) is calculated in the land component (CLM) with explicit albedo and refreezing calculations, and downscaled to the ice sheet model resolution via elevation classes and bi-linear (horizontal) and linear (vertical) interpolations. A major highlight of CESM is that the most important coupling process between ice sheet and atmosphere, the albedo feedback, is explicitly modeled, as opposed to state-of-the-art parameterizations of albedo and/or surface melt. Regarding future Greenland ice sheet projections with CESM1, we summarize our results on: 1) doubled end-of-the-century melt rates under RCP8.5 from increased incoming thermal radiation and turbulent fluxes despite decreased incoming solar radiation over Greenland from more clouds, 2) increase in SMB variability due to reduced accumulation to ablation area ration, 3) bimodal emergence of an anthropogenic signal on the SMB due to both increasing melt and snow accumulation, 4) reduction in ice discharge from marginal thinning. We also outline work in progress in preparation for our contribution to the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project 6 (ISMIP6) and paleo-research on the last deglaciation, e.g., on model initialization, improved SMB calculation, evaluation of CESM2.0 climate over Greenland, and parameter optimization of the higher-order CISM2.1. @en

We evaluate modelled Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) near-surface climate, surface energy balance (SEB) and surface mass balance (SMB) from the updated regional climate model RACMO2 (1958-2016). The new model version, referred to as RACMO2.3p2, incorporates updated glacier outlines, topography and ice albedo fields. Parameters in the cloud scheme governing the conversion of cloud condensate into precipitation have been tuned to correct inland snowfall underestimation: snow properties are modified to reduce drifting snow and melt production in the ice sheet percolation zone. The ice albedo prescribed in the updated model is lower at the ice sheet margins, increasing ice melt locally. RACMO2.3p2 shows good agreement compared to in situ meteorological data and point SEB/SMB measurements, and better resolves the spatial patterns and temporal variability of SMB compared with the previous model version, notably in the north-east, south-east and along the K-transect in south-western Greenland. This new model version provides updated, high-resolution gridded fields of the GrIS present-day climate and SMB, and will be used for projections of the GrIS climate and SMB in response to a future climate scenario in a forthcoming study.

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We evaluate modelled Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) near-surface climate, surface mass balance (SMB) and surface energy balance (SEB) from the updated polar version of the regional atmospheric climate model, RACMO2 (1979-2016). The updated model, referred to as RACMO2.3p2, incorporates upper-air relaxation, a revised topography, tuned parameters in the cloud scheme to generate more precipitation towards the AIS interior and modified snow properties reducing drifting snow sublimation and increasing surface snowmelt.

Comparisons of RACMO2 model output with several independent observational data show that the existing biases in AIS temperature, radiative fluxes and SMB components are further reduced with respect to the previous model version. The model-integrated annual average SMB for the ice sheet including ice shelves (minus the Antarctic Peninsula, AP) now amounts to 2229ĝ€Gtĝ€yĝ'1, with an interannual variability of 109ĝ€Gtĝ€yĝ'1. The largest improvement is found in modelled surface snowmelt, which now compares well with satellite and weather station observations. For the high-resolution ( ĝ1/4 ĝ€5.5ĝ€km) AP simulation, results remain comparable to earlier studies.

The updated model provides a new, high-resolution data set of the contemporary near-surface climate and SMB of the AIS; this model version will be used for future climate scenario projections in a forthcoming study.

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Melting of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) and its peripheral glaciers and ice caps (GICs) contributes about 43% to contemporary sea level rise. While patterns of GrIS mass loss are well studied, the spatial and temporal evolution of GICs mass loss and the acting processes have remained unclear. Here we use a novel, 1 km surface mass balance product, evaluated against in situ and remote sensing data, to identify 1997 (±5 years) as a tipping point for GICs mass balance. That year marks the onset of a rapid deterioration in the capacity of the GICs firn to refreeze meltwater. Consequently, GICs runoff increases 65% faster than meltwater production, tripling the post-1997 mass loss to 36±16 Gt -'1, or -1/414% of the Greenland total. In sharp contrast, the extensive inland firn of the GrIS retains most of its refreezing capacity for now, buffering 22% of the increased meltwater production. This underlines the very different response of the GICs and GrIS to atmospheric warming.

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Melting glaciers, ice caps and ice sheets have made an important contribution to sea-level rise through the last century. Self-attraction and loading effects driven by shrinking ice masses cause a spatially varying redistribution of ocean waters that affects reconstructions of past sea level from sparse observations. We model the solid-earth response to ice mass changes and find significant vertical deformation signals over large continental areas. We show how deformation rates have been strongly varying through the last century, which implies that they should be properly modelled before interpreting and extrapolating recent observations of vertical land motion and sea-level change.

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This study presents a data set of daily, 1 km resolution Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) surface mass balance (SMB) covering the period 1958–2015. Applying corrections for elevation, bare ice albedo and accumulation bias, the high-resolution product is statistically downscaled from the native daily output of the polar regional climate model RACMO2.3 at 11 km. The data set includes all individual SMB components projected to a down-sampled version of the Greenland Ice Mapping Project (GIMP) digital elevation model and ice mask. The 1 km mask better resolves narrow ablation zones, valley glaciers, fjords and disconnected ice caps. Relative to the 11 km product, the more detailed representation of isolated glaciated areas leads to increased precipitation over the southeastern GrIS. In addition, the downscaled product shows a significant increase in runoff owing to better resolved low-lying marginal glaciated regions. The combined corrections for elevation and bare ice albedo markedly improve model agreement with a newly compiled data set of ablation measurements.@en

We present climate and surface mass balance (SMB) of the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) as simulated by the global, coupled ocean–atmosphere–land Community Earth System Model (CESM) with a horizontal resolution of ∼ 1 ^∘ in the past, present and future (1850–2100). CESM correctly simulates present-day Antarctic sea ice extent, large-scale atmospheric circulation and near-surface climate, but fails to simulate the recent expansion of Antarctic sea ice. The present-day Antarctic ice sheet SMB equals 2280 ± 131 Gtyear-1, which concurs with existing independent estimates of AIS SMB. When forced by two CMIP5 climate change scenarios (high mitigation scenario RCP2.6 and high-emission scenario RCP8.5), CESM projects an increase of Antarctic ice sheet SMB of about 70 Gtyear-1 per degree warming. This increase is driven by enhanced snowfall, which is partially counteracted by more surface melt and runoff along the ice sheet’s edges. This intensifying hydrological cycle is predominantly driven by atmospheric warming, which increases (1) the moisture-carrying capacity of the atmosphere, (2) oceanic source region evaporation, and (3) summer AIS cloud liquid water content.

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The glacial history of Antarctica during the most recent Milankovitch cycles is poorly constrained relative to the Northern Hemisphere. As a consequence, the contribution of mass changes in the Antarctic ice sheet to global sea-level change and the prediction of its future evolution remain uncertain. The process of Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) represents the ongoing response of the solid Earth to the Late-Pleistocene deglaciation and, therefore, provides information about Antarctic glacial history. Moreover, insufficient knowledge of GIA hampers the determination of present-day changes in the Antarctic mass balance through satellite gravity measurements. Previous studies have laid the theoretical foundation for distinguishing between signals of ongoing GIA and contemporary ice mass change through the combination of satellite gravimetry and satellite altimetry. This distinction is made possible by the fact the GIA-induced changes (involving relatively dense rock) will produce a different combination of topography and gravity change than those produced by variations in ice or firn thickness (due to the lower density of these materials); however, no conclusive results have been produced to date. Here we show that, by combining laser altimetry and gravity data from the ICESat and GRACE satellite missions over the period March 2003-March 2008, the GIA contribution can indeed be isolated. The inferred GIA signal over the Antarctic continent, which represents the first result derived from direct observations by satellite techniques, strongly supports Late-Pleistocene ice models derived from glacio-geologic studies. The GIA impact on GRACE-derived estimates of mass balance is found to be 100 ± 67 Gt/yr.

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