The municipality of Amsterdam plans to transition away from its reliance on fossil fuel-based energy sources for residential heating by 2040. The municipality has laid out a roadmap that details possibilities for sustainable heating on a per-neighborhood basis. One neighborhood of particular interest is Geerdinkhof in Amsterdam South East. There are three long-term sustainable transitions that can take place within Geerdinkhof; a high temperature (HT) district heating network, collectively-owned options and heating options per individual household. The present research refers to citizen social acceptance of these long-term transitions for sustainable heating. It would be ideal to address the possible lack of social acceptance for a new technology before it is implemented. It is argued that social acceptance issues can best be anticipated by understanding the underlying value conflicts associated with technologies. However, literature indicates that very few tools have been implemented for ex-ante analysis of social acceptance. It is argued that the consequences of value conflicts on a future lack of social acceptance can be anticipated by identifying scenarios of value change. In order to best balance the need for both quantitative and qualitative scenario analysis, Cross-Impact Balances (CIB) was chosen as the methodology execute this thesis. This method that can construct qualitative and semi-quantitative scenarios systematically. The values observed in this thesis regard affordability and comfort, which are at the forefront of the transition for citizens in Geerdinkhof. The analysis produced a total of 23 internally consistent scenarios of value change. This thesis defines “internally consistent” scenarios of value change as a reflection of how the prioritization of values shift over time, considering the mathematically plausible combinations of CIB calculations. Considering the heavy work-load to analyze each scenario individually, the scenarios were clustered into seven broad scenario clusters based on how these values may trend. Sensitivity analysis indicated that there is no extreme divergence in the number of consistent scenarios discovered. For each scenario cluster, the most fitting of the three possible heating initiatives in Geerdinkhof were assessed. Moreover, analysis indicated that a HT district heating network was the most fitting heating initiative as a result of the most commonly found scenario. However, it cannot be conclusively stated that this initiative is the most suitable for Geerdinkhof, given that the least commonly found scenario also suits HT district heating. Recommendations can be provided on the best possible procedure that the municipality can take in order to facilitate more socially accepted heating initiatives. Ex-ante assessment of social acceptance is dependent on observing possible trends in neighborhood and external factors. It is recommended that the municipality assess the current trends in these factors, and compare them to the findings in the present research. It is important to note that citizens would also need to demonstrate the need for sustainable initiatives. Another recommendation would be for the municipality to continue to emphasize the importance and urgency of the impending transition, for example through information campaigns or neighborhood gatherings.

The climate change around the globe driven by Greenhouse Gas emissions (GHG) is fueling the growth of Sustainable Energy Systems (SES) at a faster pace. However, the lack of acceptance of these systems by society has stifled its successful deployment. Societal values play a key role in evaluating the social acceptance and the broader consequences of SES. However, there exists a complexity of change in the values of people. Alternatively known as value change, although SES may embody values permanently during its design, the values that people hold important may change during the lifetime of SES. Value change may often be driven by various exogenous factors as well as due to the complex, emergent, and dynamic characteristics of SES. Consequently, this has led to high uncertainty in the future acceptance of SES. Exploring the uncertain scenarios of value change is crucial for social acceptance of SES as it can facilitate better consideration of values in evaluating social acceptance of SES, ultimately contributing to the future acceptability of SES by society. However, current approaches to explore value change in ethics of technology literature are scarce. Few have proposed to explore value change, but lack in dealing with value change after it has occurred, or they consider values in a static manner. Alternatively, simulation models show better prospects in exploring complex societal dynamics of which a human mind cannot picture. Simulation models such as Agent-Based Models are seen as a suitable solution to capture the underlying mechanisms that drive the value change considering the complex and dynamic characteristics of SES. The objective of this research is to gain an understanding of the mechanisms that drive the value change in SES, by formulating a modelling approach that integrates agent heterogeneity, common pool resource & dynamic behavior, transformative experience & bounded rationality, and social interaction, to explore value change under various policy and uncertainty scenarios of SES. To this end, this study combined Agent-Based Modelling and Exploratory Modelling approaches to explore the change in importance of values in SES.

The Urban Heat Island effect increases the air temperature in cities compared to rural areas because cities have a lot more hardened surfaces than rural areas. As the amount of people living in cities increases and the global air temperatures rise, these negative effects will increase and mitigation action has to be taken. This research investigates how technical, household and institutional characteristics influence the adoption of Urban Heat Island mitigation solutions in existing neighbourhoods in the Netherlands. Through a desk study, expert interviews and agent-based model the effect of these characteristic on the adoption of green roofs, green façades, green gardens and cool roofs by households is researched. The results show that several characteristics found in literature do not have a significant effect on the fraction of adopted solutions and that there is no significant difference between the four investigated Local Climate Zones. It is concluded that only the energy reduction effect of a solution has a significant influence, that households with a higher income and households that own their dwelling adopt more mitigation solutions, that households in owners’ association adopt less solutions and that introducing or increasing the subsidy for green roofs or cool roofs increases the adoption of these solutions but not the average air temperature. Furthermore, the results show that households will mostly adopt green roofs. The outcomes of this research can be used by policy makers to differentiate policies between neighbourhoods and the model itself can be adapted to use it for other cities or neighbourhoods.

The long time horizon of sustainable energy developments is often associated with all sorts of issues that are caused by changes in values. The public attitude can be affected by these changes and potential risks in the lack of social acceptance could occur, which always lead to public oppositions to the implementation of the sustainable energy system in a city district. Integrating social acceptance into the long-term planning of energy projects is necessary to lower the risks. However, it is hard to assess the future acceptance of energy consumers in different sustainable energy options. Also, different stakeholders always have different opinions and concerns on the public accepted solutions, which causes conflicts in negotiation in the planning and decision-making phases. This research employed a participatory modelling approach to forecast the possible future developments in the district heating network in Amsterdam Southeast concerning the value changes. This method also helps stakeholders to understand the design requirements of the more public accepted sustainable energy system in the future.

This research has been performed to help the Dutch government with the decisions and choices it has to make in order to meet the requirements of the Paris Agreement and the Climate Agreement. Decentralized energy systems can be a solution for meeting these requirements, however trade-offs have to be made between different system criteria, which are evaluated as values in this research. The aim of this research is to find out what strategies can reduce and deal with value conflicts that can be identified when designing a decentralized energy system considering the properties of a city district. A specific city district is analyzed, i.e. 'De Vruchtenbuurt' in The Hague, the Netherlands. The research starts with an identification of values, conversion factors, governance models and technical designs which are important when changing to a decentralized energy system in 'De Vruchtenbuurt'. Following the Capability Approach is used to structure the different components and the relations between them. Subsequently, a translation of the components into a simulation model is made, using the values to evaluate the acceptability of the capabilities. By analyzing the values that are conflicting (for different conversion groups) for different input parameter settings, insights are gained about possible value conflicts that can emerge in 'De Vruchtenbuurt' and possibly also in other city districts. Finally, an analysis on strategies is developed that can be effective to limit the emergence of the identified value conflicts and therefore possibly support the change to a decentralized energy system in 'De Vruchtenbuurt' and in other city districts. Policies (financial instruments and supporting innovations) that create more feasible solutions for the heterogeneous households are effective to limit the context dependent value conflicts. It is not realistic to eliminate all value conflicts, since some of the values are inherently in conflict with each other. For these conflicts thresholds can be formulated that should be met for every value. Given that value conflicts exist, focusing on the process of the change to a decentralized energy system is seen as important factor for support and participation.

Due to the transition to sustainable transport, an increase of the share of electric vehicles is expected. The electric vehicles will increase the peak demand on the electricity grid. It is possible to shift the demand of the electric vehicles using smart grid technology. The electric vehicle owners have the option to use this smart electric vehicle system. Using the concepts of social acceptance and moral acceptability an agent-based model is used to simulate the use of the smart EV system. Based on this agent-based model possible design directions are identified for the smart EV system which reduce the expected electricity grid problems sufficiently in the long-term. For the smart EV system to be as effective as possible vehicle to grid technology in combination with an algorithm which optimizes on the network capacity have should be used. However, these options were the least accepted by the EV owners and therefore further research is required. The next step for research is to develop a businesses models for the design directions discussed in this thesis.