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T. Filatova

108 records found

Climate change is projected to adversely affect agriculture worldwide. This requires farmers to adapt incrementally already early in the twenty-first century, and to pursue transformational adaptation to endure future climate-induced damages. Many articles discuss the underlying ...

Patterns in reported adaptation constraints

Insights from peer-reviewed literature on floods and sea-level rise

Understanding climate change adaptation constraints for different actors — governments, communities, individuals, and households — is essential, as adaptation turns into a matter of survival. Though rich qualitative research reveals constraints for diverse cases, methods to conso ...
Economic costs of climate change are conventionally assessed at the aggregated global and national levels, while adaptation is local. When present, regionalised assessments are confined to direct damages, hindered by both data and models’ limitations. This article goes beyond the ...
Despite the increasing use of standards for documenting and testing agent-based models (ABMs) and sharing of open access code, most ABMs are still developed from scratch. This is not only inefficient, but also leads to ad hoc and often inconsistent implementations of the same the ...
Sustainability outcomes are influenced by the laws and configurations of natural and engineered systems as well as activities in socio-economic systems. An important subset of human activity is the creation and implementation of institutions, formal and informal rules shaping a w ...
Transformational adaptation to climate change becomes increasingly urgent. Experiencing a severe hazard event is insufficient to enable a transformational response. Yet, there is no solid theoretical or empirical evidence on what policy and other social explanations enable transf ...
Despite the growing calls to integrate realistic human behavior in sustainability science models, the representative rational agent prevails. This is especially problematic for climate change adaptation that relies on actions at various scales: from governments to individuals. Em ...

How to keep it adequate

A protocol for ensuring validity in agent-based simulation

There has so far been no shared understanding of validity in agent-based simulation. We here conceptualise validation as systematically substantiating the premises on which conclusions from simulation analysis for a particular modelling context are built. Given such a systematic ...
Nature-based solutions (NbS) are a cornerstone of climate change adaptation worldwide. Yet, evidence on their economic benefits is scarce, especially since the provided environmental amenities usually spatially correlate with climate-induced hazards, effects of which NbS aim to c ...
Climate change effects are not uniform and have disproportionate impacts among different groups of people within communities. It is therefore important to understand the underlying issues of intersectionality for climate change adaptation and human well-being. This paper aims to ...
Reconstructions of the most severe historic flood events contribute to improved quantification of design discharges corresponding to large return periods. Reducing the uncertainty of design discharges has a great significance in constructing proper flood defences to protect the h ...

Agent decision-making

The Elephant in the Room - Enabling the justification of decision model fit in social-ecological models

Agent-based models are particularly suitable to reflect the dynamics of humans, nature, and their interactions, making them a crucial approach for understanding social-ecological systems. The formalisations of human decision-making are central to resulting model behaviours. Despi ...
Climate change intensifies the likelihood of extreme flood events worldwide, amplifying the potential for compound flooding. This evolving scenario represents an escalating risk, emphasizing the urgent need for comprehensive climate change adaptation strategies across society. Vi ...

Developing Transdisciplinary Approaches to Sustainability Challenges

The Need to Model Socio-Environmental Systems in the Longue Durée

Human beings are an active component of every terrestrial ecosystem on Earth. Although our local impact on the evolution of these ecosystems has been undeniable and extensively documented, it remains unclear precisely how our activities are altering them, in part because ecosyste ...
Physical tipping points have gained a lot of attention in global and climate change research to understand the conditions for system transitions when it comes to the atmosphere and the biosphere. Social tipping points have been framed as mechanisms in socio-environmental systems, ...
Ambitious climate mitigation policies face social and political resistance. One reason is that existing policies insufficiently capture the diversity of relevant insights from the social sciences about potential policy outcomes. We argue that agent-based models can serve as a pow ...
Risk assessments are key for the effective management of potential environmental threats. Across probabilistic phenomena, climate change is an exemplar of paramount uncertainties. These uncertainties have been embraced in supporting governments’ decisions; yet receive scarce atte ...
While agent-based modeling (ABM) has become one of the most powerful tools in quantitative social sciences, it remains difficult to explain their structure and performance. We propose to use artificial intelligence both to build the models from data, and to improve the way we com ...
As climate change increases the probability and severity of natural hazards, the need for coordinated adaptation at all levels of society intensifies. Governmental-level adaptation measures are essential, but insufficient in the face of growing risks, necessitating complementary ...