The establishment of young organisms in harsh environments often requires a window of opportunity (WoO). That is, a short time window in which environmental conditions drop long enough below the hostile average level, giving the organism time to develop tolerance and transition into stable existence. It has been suggested that this kind of establishment dynamics is a noise-induced transition between two alternate states. Understanding how temporal variability (i.e. noise) in environmental conditions affects establishment of organisms is therefore key, yet not well understood or included explicitly in the WoO framework. In this paper, we develop a coherent theoretical framework for understanding when the WoO open or close based on simple dichotomous environmental variation. We reveal that understanding of the intrinsic timescales of both the developing organism and the environment is fundamental to predict if organisms can or cannot establish. These insights have allowed us to develop statistical laws for predicting establishment probabilities based on the period and variance of the fluctuations in naturally variable environments. Based on this framework, we now get a clear understanding of how changes in the timing and magnitude of climate variability or management can mediate establishment chances.

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Conservation and restoration of salt marsh ecosystems are becoming increasingly important because of the many ecosystem services they provide. However, the processes controlling salt marsh establishment and persistence, especially on bare tidal flats in muddy areas, remain unclear. As muddy sediments typically experience a restriction of soil drainage, we expect that a surface drainage relief due to a heterogeneity topography, as might occur on the edge of tidal channels, can facilitate the establishment of salt marsh vegetation on muddy tidal flats. By means of a manipulative field experiment, using “Mega-Marsh Organ” mesocosms, we investigated the impact of surface drainage and elevation relative to mean sea level on (1) the survival of Spartina anglica seedlings from three different age classes: 1-yr, 3-month, and 1-week; and (2) the growth performance of mature S. anglica marsh tussocks. S. anglica seedling survival, especially in the establishment phase, was positively affected by better surface drainage, increases of seedling age, and higher elevation relative to mean sea level. That is, the survival rate of S. anglica seedlings at the end of 6th week increased from 0% (at surface water undrained, 1-week, 0 cm elevation) to 94.44% (at surface water drained, 1-yr, 90 cm elevation). In contrast, surface drainage did not affect the performance of large S. anglica marsh tussocks, as only increased elevation relative to mean sea level was shown to affect S. anglica tussock growth in terms of plant height, shoot numbers, and dry biomass. Based on our findings, we proposed a conceptual model to understand how surface drainage-driven feedbacks in a heterogeneous topography may be reinforced to induce salt marsh establishment in muddy systems. Further testing of present hypothesized model would be beneficial for insights into salt marsh establishment on tidal mudflats.

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Our study aims to enhance process understanding of the long-term (decadal and longer) cyclic marsh dynamics by identifying the mechanisms that translate large-scale physical forcing in the system into vegetation change, in particular (i) the initiation of lateral erosion on an expanding marsh, and (ii) the control of seedling establishment in front of an eroding marsh-cliff. Short-term sediment dynamics (i.e., seasonal and shorter changes in sediment elevation) at the mudflat causes variation in mudflat elevation over time (δzTF). The resulting difference in elevation between the tidal flat and adjacent marsh (ΔZ) initiates lateral marsh erosion. Marsh erosion rate was found to depend on sediment type and to increase with increasing ΔZ and hydrodynamic exposure. Laboratory and field experiments revealed that seedling establishment was negatively impacted by an increasing δzTF. As the amplitude of δzTF increases towards the channel, expanding marshes become more prone to lateral erosion the further they extend on a tidal flat, and the chance for seedlings to establish increases with the distance that marsh has eroded back towards the land. This process-based understanding, showing the role of sediment dynamics as explanatory factor for marsh cyclicity, is important for protecting and restoring valuable marsh ecosystems. Overall, our experiments emphasize the need for understanding the connections between neighbouring ecosystems such as mudflat and salt marsh.@en