The assessment of coastal flood risk on a reef-lined coastline presents several challenges. From the probabilistic side, we need to consider all possible events that could occur in the system, taking into account the different contributions of waves, storm surges, and tides that contribute to the total water level. To estimate reliable flood extents, we need to accurately model the complex wave processes that occur across the reef. To explore the multivariate nature of coastal flooding, we rely on a climate emulator that accounts for climate variability and simulates time series of all the variables involved. Due to the computational constraints to numerically simulate thousands of events, we explore the feasibility of using a recently developed tool, the HyCreWW (Hybrid Coral Reef Wave and Water level) meta-model to estimate wave run-up and flooding extents. Limitation of a 1D assessment are analyzed and results compared with 2D modeling.@en

Coastal landscape change represents aggregated sediment transport gradients from spatially and temporally variable marine and aeolian forces. Numerous tools exist that independently simulate subaqueous and subaerial coastal profile change in response to these physical forces on a range of time scales. In this capacity, coastal foredunes have been treated primarily as wind-driven features. However, there are several marine controls on coastal foredune growth, such as sediment supply and moisture effects on aeolian processes. To improve understanding of interactions across the land-sea interface, here the development of the new Windsurf-coupled numerical modeling framework is presented. Windsurf couples standalone subaqueous and subaerial coastal change models to simulate the co-evolution of the coastal zone in response to both marine and aeolian processes. Windsurf is applied to a progradational, dissipative coastal system inWashington, USA, demonstrating the ability of the model framework to simulate sediment exchanges between the nearshore, beach, and dune for a one-year period. Windsurf simulations generally reproduce observed cycles of seasonal beach progradation and retreat, as well as dune growth, with reasonable skill. Exploratory model simulations are used to further explore the implications of environmental forcing variability on annual-scale coastal profile evolution. The findings of this work support the hypothesis that there are both direct and indirect oceanographic and meteorological controls on coastal foredune progradation, with this new modeling tool providing a new means of exploring complex morphodynamic feedback mechanisms.@en

Rising seas coupled with ever increasing coastal populations present the potential for significant social and economic loss in the 21st century. Relatively short records of the full multidimensional space contributing to total water level coastal flooding events (astronomic tides, sea level anomalies, storm surges, wave run-up, etc.) result in historical observations of only a small fraction of the possible range of conditions that could produce severe flooding. The Time-varying Emulator for Short- and Long-Term analysis of coastal flood hazard potential is presented here as a methodology capable of producing new iterations of the sea-state parameters associated with the present-day Pacific Ocean climate to simulate many synthetic extreme compound events. The emulator utilizes weather typing of fundamental climate drivers (sea surface temperatures, sea level pressures, etc.) to reduce complexity and produces new daily synoptic weather chronologies with an auto-regressive logistic model accounting for conditional dependencies on the El Niño Southern Oscillation, the Madden-Julian Oscillation, seasonality, and the prior two days of weather progression. Joint probabilities of sea-state parameters unique to simulated weather patterns are used to create new time series of the hypothetical components contributing to synthetic total water levels (swells from multiple directions coupled with water levels due to wind setup, temperature anomalies, and tides). The Time-varying Emulator for Short- and Long-Term analysis of coastal flood hazard potential reveals the importance of considering the multivariate nature of extreme coastal flooding, while progressing the ability to incorporate large-scale climate variability into site specific studies assessing hazards within the context of predicted climate change in the 21st century.@en

Ocean-basin-scale climate variability produces shifts in wave climates and water levels affecting the coastlines of the basin. Here we present a hybrid shoreline change—foredune erosion model (A COupled CrOss-shOre, loNg-shorE, and foreDune evolution model, COCOONED) intended to inform coastal planning and adaptation. COCOONED accounts for coupled longshore and cross-shore processes at different timescales, including sequencing and clustering of storm events, seasonal, interannual, and decadal oscillations by incorporating the effects of integrated varying wave action and water levels for coastal hazard assessment. COCOONED is able to adapt shoreline change rates in response to interactions between longshore transport, cross-shore transport, water level variations, and foredune erosion. COCOONED allows for the spatial and temporal extension of survey data using global data sets of waves and water levels for assessing the behavior of the shoreline at multiple time and spatial scales. As a case study, we train the model in the period 2004–2014 (11 years) with seasonal topographic beach profile surveys from the North Beach Sub-cell (NBSC) of the Columbia River Littoral Cell (Washington, USA). We explore the shoreline response and foredune erosion along 40 km of beach at several timescales during the period 1979–2014 (35 years), revealing an accretional trend producing reorientation of the beach, cross-shore accretional, and erosional periods through time (breathing) and alternating beach rotations that are correlated with climate indices.

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Coastal foredune growth is typically associated with aeolian sediment transport processes, while foredune erosion is associated with destructive marine processes. New data sets collected at a high energy, dissipative beach suggest that total water levels in the collision regime can cause dunes to accrete-requiring a paradigm shift away from considering collisional wave impacts as unconditionally erosional. From morphologic change data sets, it is estimated that marine processes explain between 9% and 38% of annual dune growth with aeolian processes accounting for the remaining 62% to 91%. The largest wind-driven dune growth occurs during the winter, in response to high wind velocities, but out of phase with summertime beach growth via intertidal sandbar welding. The lack of synchronization between maximum beach sediment supply and wind-driven dune growth indicates that aeolian transport at this site is primarily transport, rather than supply, limited, likely due to a lack of fetch limitations.

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A recent 35-year endpoint shoreline change analysis revealed significant counterclockwise rotations occurring in north-central Oregon, USA, littoral cells that extend 10s of kilometers in length. While the potential for severe El Niños to contribute to littoral cell rotations at seasonal to interannual scale was previously recognized, the dynamics resulting in persistent (multidecadal) rotation were unknown, largely due to a lack of historical wave conditions extending back multiple decades and the difficulty of separating the timescales of shoreline variability in a high energy region. This study addresses this question by (1) developing a statistical downscaling framework to characterize wave conditions relevant for longshore sediment transport during data-poor decades and (2) applying a one-line shoreline change model to quantitatively assess the potential for such large embayed beaches to rotate. A climate INdex was optimized to capture variability in longshore wave power as a proxy for potential LOngshore Sediment Transport (LOST_IN), and a procedure was developed to simulate many realizations of potential wave conditions from the index. Waves were transformed dynamically with Simulating Waves Nearshore to the nearshore as inputs to a one-line model that revealed shoreline rotations of embayed beaches at multiple time and spatial scales not previously discernible from infrequent observations. Model results indicate that littoral cells respond to both interannual and multidecadal oscillations, producing comparable shoreline excursions to extreme El Niño winters. The technique quantitatively relates morphodynamic forcing to specific climate patterns and has the potential to better identify and quantify coastal variability on timescales relevant to a changing climate.

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Characterization of multimodal directional wave spectra is important for many offshore and coastal applications, such as marine forecasting, coastal hazard assessment, and design of offshore wave energy farms and coastal structures. However, the multivariate and multiscale nature of wave climate variability makes this complex problem tractable using computationally expensive numerical models. So far, the skill of statistical-downscaling model-based parametric (unimodal) wave conditions is limited in large ocean basins such as the Pacific. The recent availability of long-term directional spectral data from buoys and wave hindcast models allows for development of stochastic models that include multimodal sea-state parameters. This work introduces a statistical downscaling framework based on weather types to predict multimodal wave spectra (e.g., significant wave height, mean wave period, and mean wave direction from different storm systems, including sea and swells) from large-scale atmospheric pressure fields. For each weather type, variables of interest are modeled using the categorical distribution for the sea-state type, the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution for wave height and wave period, a multivariate Gaussian copula for the interdependence between variables, and a Markov chain model for the chronology of daily weather types. We apply the model to the southern California coast, where local seas and swells from both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres contribute to the multimodal wave spectrum. This work allows attribution of particular extreme multimodal wave events to specific atmospheric conditions, expanding knowledge of time-dependent, climate-driven offshore and coastal sea-state conditions that have a significant influence on local nearshore processes, coastal morphology, and flood hazards.

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Interest in understanding long-term coastal morphodynamics has recently increased as climate change impacts become perceptible and accelerated. Multiscale, behavior-oriented and process-based models, or hybrids of the two, are typically applied with deterministic approaches which require considerable computational effort. In order to reduce the computational cost of modeling large spatial and temporal scales, input reduction and morphological acceleration techniques have been developed. Here we introduce a general framework for reducing dimensionality of wave-driver inputs to morphodynamic models. The proposed framework seeks to account for dependencies with global atmospheric circulation fields and deals simultaneously with seasonality, interannual variability, long-term trends, and autocorrelation of wave height, wave period, and wave direction. The model is also able to reproduce future wave climate time series accounting for possible changes in the global climate system. An application of long-term shoreline evolution is presented by comparing the performance of the real and the simulated wave climate using a one-line model.

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