Dust storms pose significant risks to health and property, necessitating accurate forecasting for preventive measures. Despite advancements, dust models grapple with uncertainties arising from emission and transport processes. Data assimilation addresses these by integrating observations to rectify model error, enhancing forecast precision. The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is a widely used assimilation algorithm that effectively optimize model states, particularly in terms of intensity adjustment. However, the EnKF's efficacy is challenged by position errors between modeled and observed dust features, especially under substantial position errors. This study introduces the valid time shifting ensemble Kalman filter (VTS-EnKF), which combines stochastic EnKF with a valid time shifting mechanism. By recruiting additional ensemble members from neighboring valid times, this method not only accommodates variations in dust load but also explicitly accounts for positional uncertainties. Consequently, the enlarged ensemble better represents both the intensity and positional errors, thereby optimizing the utilization of observational data. The proposed VTS-EnKF was evaluated against two severe dust storm cases from spring 2021, demonstrating that position errors notably deteriorated forecast performance in terms of root mean square error (RMSE) and normalized mean bias (NMB), impeding the EnKF's effective assimilation. Conversely, the VTS-EnKF improved both the analysis and forecast accuracy compared to the conventional EnKF. Additionally, to provide a more rigorous assessment of its performance, experiments were conducted using fewer ensemble members and different time intervals.@en

The global trade of plastic waste has raised environmental concerns, especially regarding pollution in waste-importing countries. However, the overall environmental contribution remains unclear due to uncertain treatment shares between handling plastic waste abroad and domestically. Here, we conduct a life cycle assessment of global plastic waste trade in 2022 across 18 countries and six plastic waste types, alongside three “nontrade” counterfactual scenarios. By considering the required cycling rate, which balances importers’ costs and recycling revenues, we find that the trade resulted in lower environmental impacts than treating domestically with the average treatment mix. The trade scenario alone reduced climate change impact by 2.85 million tonnes of CO₂ equivalent and mitigated damages to ecosystem quality, human health, and resource availability by 12 species-years, 6200 disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and 1.4 billion United States dollars (USD in 2013), respectively. These results underscore the significance of recognizing plastic waste trade as a pivotal factor in regulating global secondary plastic production when formulating a global plastics treaty.

@en

In data assimilation (DA) schemes, the form representing the processes in the evolution models are pre-determined except some parameters to be estimated. In some applications, such as the contaminant solute transport model and the gas reservoir model, the modes in the equations within the evolution model cannot be predetermined from the outset and may change with the time. We propose a framework of sequential DA method named Reversible Jump Ensemble Filter (RJEnF) to identify the governing modes of the evolution model over time. The main idea is to introduce the Reversible Jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo (RJMCMC) method to the DA schemes to fit the situation where the modes of the evolution model are unknown and the dimension of the parameters is changing. Our framework allows us to identify the modes in the evolution model and their changes, as well as estimate the parameters and states of the dynamic system. Numerical experiments are conducted and the results show that our framework can effectively identify the underlying evolution models and increase the predictive accuracy of DA methods.

@en

Accurately forecasting ozone levels that exceed specific thresholds is pivotal for mitigating adverse effects on both the environment and public health. However, predicting such ozone exceedances remains challenging due to the infrequent occurrence of high-concentration ozone data. This research, leveraging data from 57 German monitoring stations from 1999 to 2018, introduces an Enhanced Extreme Instance Augmentation Random Forest (EEIA-RF) approach that significantly improves the prediction of days when the maximum daily 8-hour average ozone concentrations exceed 120μg/m³. A pre-trained machine learning model is used to generate additional high-concentration data, which, combined with selectively reduced low-concentration data, forms a new dataset for training a refined model. This method achieved an improvement of at least 8% in the accuracy of predicting days with ozone exceedances across Germany. Our experiment underscores the approach's value in enhancing atmospheric modeling and supporting public health advisories and environmental policy-making related to ozone pollution.

@en

We discuss the various performance aspects of parallelizing our transient global-scale groundwater model at 30′′ resolution (30arcsec; °1/41km at the Equator) on large distributed memory parallel clusters. This model, referred to as GLOBGM, is the successor of our 5′ (5arcmin; °1/410km at the Equator) PCR-GLOBWB 2 (PCRaster Global Water Balance model) groundwater model, based on MODFLOW having two model layers. The current version of GLOBGM (v1.0) used in this study also has two model layers, is uncalibrated, and uses available 30′′ PCR-GLOBWB data. Increasing the model resolution from 5′ to 30′′ creates challenges, including increased runtime, memory usage, and data storage that exceed the capacity of a single computer. We show that our parallelization tackles these problems with relatively low parallel hardware requirements to meet the needs of users or modelers who do not have exclusive access to hundreds or thousands of nodes within a supercomputer. For our simulation, we use unstructured grids and a prototype version of MODFLOW 6 that we have parallelized using the message-passing interface. We construct independent unstructured grids with a total of 278 million active cells to cancel all redundant sea and land cells, while satisfying all necessary boundary conditions, and distribute them over three continental-scale groundwater models (168 million - Afro-Eurasia; 77 million - the Americas; 16 million - Australia) and one remaining model for the smaller islands (17 million). Each of the four groundwater models is partitioned into multiple non-overlapping submodels that are tightly coupled within the MODFLOW linear solver, where each submodel is uniquely assigned to one processor core, and associated submodel data are written in parallel during the pre-processing, using data tiles. For balancing the parallel workload in advance, we apply the widely used METIS graph partitioner in two ways: it is straightforwardly applied to all (lateral) model grid cells, and it is applied in an area-based manner to HydroBASINS catchments that are assigned to submodels for pre-sorting to a future coupling with surface water. We consider an experiment for simulating the years 1958-2015 with daily time steps and monthly input, including a 20-year spin-up, on the Dutch national supercomputer Snellius. Given that the serial simulation would require °1/44.5 months of runtime, we set a hypothetical target of a maximum of 16h of simulation runtime. We show that 12 nodes (32 cores per node; 384 cores in total) are sufficient to achieve this target, resulting in a speedup of 138 for the largest Afro-Eurasia model when using 7 nodes (224 cores) in parallel. A limited evaluation of the model output using the United States Geological Survey (USGS) National Water Information System (NWIS) head observations for the contiguous United States was conducted. This showed that increasing the resolution from 5′ to 30′′ results in a significant improvement with GLOBGM for the steady-state simulation when compared to the 5′ PCR-GLOBWB groundwater model. However, results for the transient simulation are quite similar, and there is much room for improvement. Monthly and multi-year total terrestrial water storage anomalies derived from the GLOBGM and PCR-GLOBWB models, however, compared favorably with observations from the GRACE satellite. For the next versions of GLOBGM, further improvements require a more detailed (hydro)geological schematization and better information on the locations, depths, and pumping rates of abstraction wells.

@en

Serious fluctuations caused by disturbances may lead to instability of power systems. With the disturbance modeled by a Brownian motion process, the fluctuations are often described by the asymptotic variance at the invariant probability distribution of an associated Gaussian stochastic process. Here, we derive the explicit formula of the variance matrix for the system with a uniform damping-inertia ratio at all the nodes, which enables us to analyze the influences of the system parameters on the fluctuations and investigate the fluctuation propagation in the network. With application to systems with complete graphs and star graphs, it is found that the variance of the frequency at the disturbed node is significantly bigger than those at all the other nodes. It is also shown that adding new nodes may prevent the propagation of fluctuations from the disturbed node to all the others. Finally, it is proven theoretically that larger line capacities accelerate the propagation of the frequency fluctuation and larger inertia of synchronous machines help suppress the fluctuations of the phase differences, however, these acceleration and suppression are quite limited.

@en

The environmental impact of traded plastic waste hinges on how it is treated. Existing studies often use domestic or scenario-based recycling rates for imported plastic waste, which is problematic due to differences in recyclability and the fact that importers pay for it. We estimate the minimum required recycling rate (RRR) needed to break even financially by analysing import prices, recycling costs, and the value of recycled plastics across 22 leading importing countries and four plastic waste types during 2013–2022. Here we show that at least 63% of imported plastic waste must be recycled, surpassing the average domestic recycling rate of 23% by 40 percentage points. This discrepancy suggests that recycled plastics volumes from the global North-to-South trade may be underestimated. The country-specific RRR provided could enhance research and policy efforts to better quantify and mitigate the environmental impact of plastic waste trade.

@en

This paper describes a neural network cloud masking scheme from PARASOL (Polarization and Anisotropy of Reflectances for Atmospheric Science coupled with Observations from a Lidar) multi-angle polarimetric measurements. The algorithm has been trained on synthetic measurements and has been applied to the processing of 1 year of PARASOL data. Comparisons of the retrieved cloud fraction with MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) products show overall agreement in spatial and temporal patterns, but the PARASOL neural network (PARASOL-NN) retrieves lower cloud fractions. Comparisons with a goodness-of-fit mask from aerosol retrievals suggest that the NN cloud mask flags fewer clear pixels as cloudy than MODIS (∼ 3 % of the clear pixels versus ∼ 15 % by MODIS). On the other hand the NN classifies more pixels incorrectly as clear than MODIS (∼ 20 % by NN, versus ∼ 15 % by MODIS). Additionally, the NN and MODIS cloud mask have been applied to the aerosol retrievals from PARASOL using the Remote Sensing of Trace Gas and Aerosol Products (RemoTAP) algorithm. Validation with AERONET shows that the NN cloud mask performs comparably with MODIS in screening residual cloud contamination in retrieved aerosol properties. Our study demonstrates that cloud masking from multi-angle polarimeter (MAP) aerosol retrievals can be performed based on the MAP measurements themselves, making the retrievals independent of the availability of a cloud imager.@en

Statistical methods, particularly machine learning models, have gained significant popularity in air quality predictions. These prediction models are commonly trained using the historical measurement datasets independently collected at the environmental monitoring stations and their operational forecasts in advance using inputs of the real-time ambient pollutant observations. Therefore, these high-quality machine learning models only provide site-available predictions and cannot solely be used as the operational forecast. In contrast, deterministic chemical transport models (CTMs), which simulate the full life cycles of air pollutants, provide predictions that are continuous in the 3D field. Despite their benefits, CTM predictions are typically biased, particularly on a fine scale, owing to the complex error sources due to the emission, transport, and removal of pollutants. In this study, we proposed a fusion of site-available machine learning prediction, which is from our regional feature selection-based machine learning model (RFSML v1.0), and a CTM prediction. Compared to the normal pure machine learning model, the fusion system provides a gridded prediction with relatively high accuracy. The prediction fusion was conducted using the Bayesian-theory-based ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF). Background error covariance was an essential part in the assimilation process. Ensemble CTM predictions driven by the perturbed emission inventories were initially used for representing their spatial covariance statistics, which could resolve the main part of the CTM error. In addition, a covariance inflation algorithm was designed to amplify the ensemble perturbations to account for other model errors next to the uncertainty in emission inputs. Model evaluation tests were conducted based on independent measurements. Our EnKF-based prediction fusion presented superior performance compared to the pure CTM. Moreover, covariance inflation further enhanced the fused prediction, particularly in cases of severe underestimation.@en

We aim to increase the ability of coupled phase oscillators to maintain synchronization when the system is affected by stochastic disturbances. We model the disturbances by Gaussian noise and use the mean first hitting time when the state hits the boundary of a secure domain, that is a subset of the basin of attraction, to measure synchronization stability. Based on the invariant probability distribution of a system of phase oscillators subject to Gaussian disturbances, we propose an optimization method to increase the mean first hitting time and, thus, increase synchronization stability. In this method, a new metric for synchronization stability is defined as the probability of the state being absent from the secure domain, which reflects the impact of all the system parameters and the strength of disturbances. Furthermore, by this new metric, one may identify those edges that may lead to desynchronization with a high risk. A case study shows that the mean first hitting time is dramatically increased after solving corresponding optimization problems, and vulnerable edges are effectively identified. It is also found that optimizing synchronization by maximizing the order parameter or the phase cohesiveness may dramatically increase the value of the metric and decrease the mean first hitting time, thus decrease synchronization stability.

@en

The synchronization of power generators is an important condition for the proper functioning of a power system, in which the fluctuations in frequency and the phase angle differences between the generators are sufficiently small when subjected to stochastic disturbances. Serious fluctuations can prompt desynchronization, which may lead to widespread power outages. Here, we model the stochastic disturbance by a Brownian motion process in the linearized system of the non-linear power systems and characterize the fluctuations by the variances of the frequency and the phase angle differences in the invariant probability distribution. We propose a method to calculate the variances of the frequency and the phase angle differences. For the system with uniform disturbance-damping ratio, we derive explicit formulas for the variance matrices of the frequency and the phase angle differences. It is shown that the fluctuation of the frequency at a node depends on the disturbance-damping ratio and the inertia at this node only, and the fluctuations of the phase angle differences in the lines are independent of the inertia. In particular, the synchronization stability is related to the cycle space of the network. We reveal the influences of constructing new lines and increasing capacities of lines on the fluctuations in the phase angle differences in the existing lines. The results are illustrated for the transmission system of Shandong Province of China. For the system with non-uniform disturbance-damping ratio, we further obtain bounds of the variance matrices.@en

Atmospheric ammonia has been hazardous to the environment and human health for decades. Current inventories are usually constructed in a bottom-up manner and subject to uncertainties and incapable of reproducing the spatiotemporal characteristics of ammonia emission. Satellite measurements, for example, Infrared Atmospheric Sounder Interferometer (IASI) and Cross-Track Infrared Sounder, which provide global coverage of ammonia distribution, have gained popularity in ammonia emission estimation through data assimilation methods. However, satellite-based emission inversion studies on China are limited. In this study, we propose a four-dimensional ensemble variational-based ammonia emission inversion system to optimize ammonia emissions in China. It was developed by assimilating the IASI ammonia retrievals onboard Meteorological Operational satellite A and B into a chemical transport model Goddard Earth Observing System Chemical model (GEOS-Chem). Monthly inversion experiments were conducted in April, July, and October 2016 to test the performance. The inversion result indicated that the prior inventory from the MEIC model captured ammonia spreads in general; however, it heterogeneously underrated the emission intensity. The increments obtained in the assimilation were as high as 50% in North, East, and Northwest China. The posterior emission inventory presented a regional emission flux consistent with relevant studies. Driven by the optimized source estimate, GEOS-Chem provides superior results than using the prior in the evaluation of the assimilated IASI retrievals and the surface ammonia concentration measured by the ground-based Ammonia Monitoring Network in China.

@en

Super dust storms re-occurred over East Asia in 2021 spring and casted great health damages and property losses. It is essential to achieve an accurate dust forecast to reduce the damage for early warning. The forecasting system fundamentally relies on a numerical model which can forecast the full evolution of dust storms. However, large uncertainties exist in model forecasts. Meanwhile, various near-real-time observations are available that contain valuable dust information. A dust storm forecasting system is here developed through coupling a chemical transport model, LOTOS-EUROS, and Localized EnKF (LEnKF) assimilation approach. The assimilations are carried out via an interface of our self-designed assimilation toolbox, PyFilter v1.0. Ground-based PM₁₀ measurements from air quality monitoring network are assimilated. Sequential assimilation tests are carried out over the 2021 spring super dust storms. The results show that the assimilation-based forecasting system produces a promising dust forecast than model-only forecast, and the improvements is also validated through comparing to the independent MODIS aerosol optical depth (AOD). Superior performance is obtained when LEnKF is implemented, as the localization helps EnKF in resolving the PM₁₀ measurements that have a large spatial variability with limited ensemble members. In addition, sensitivity experiments are conducted to exploit the distance-dependent localization for the LEnKF. Considering both cases, the optimal choice of the distance is tested to be around 500 km: the larger distance is less effective in removing the spurious correction, while the smaller one easily falls into the local optimum and the model would become divergent rapidly.

@en

The chemical transport model LOTOS-EUROS uses a volatility basis set (VBS) approach to represent the formation of secondary organic aerosol (SOA) in the atmosphere. Inclusion of the VBS approximately doubles the dimensionality of LOTOS-EUROS and slows computation of the advection operator by a factor of two. This complexity limits SOA representation in operational forecasts. We develop a mass-conserving dimensionality reduction method based on matrix factorization to find latent patterns in the VBS tracers that correspond to a smaller set of superspecies. Tracers are reversibly compressed to superspecies before transport, and the superspecies are subsequently decompressed to tracers for process-based SOA modeling. This physically interpretable data-driven method conserves the total concentration and phase of the tracers throughout the process. The superspecies approach is implemented in LOTOS-EUROS and found to accelerate the advection operator by a factor of 1.5–1.8. Concentrations remain numerically stable over model simulation times of 2 weeks, including simulations at higher spatial resolutions than the data-driven models were trained on. The reversible compression of VBS tracers enables detailed, process-based SOA representation in LOTOS-EUROS operational forecasts in a computationally efficient manner. Beyond this case study, the physically consistent data-driven approach developed in this work enforces conservation laws that are essential to other Earth system modeling applications, and generalizes to other processes where computational benefit can be gained from a two-way mapping between detailed process variables and their representation in a reduced-dimensional space.

@en

The synchronization stability of a complex network system of coupled phase oscillators is discussed. In case the network is affected by disturbances, a stochastic linearized system of the coupled phase oscillators may be used to determine the fluctuations of phase differences in the lines between the nodes and to identify the vulnerable lines that may lead to desynchronization. The main result is the derivation of the asymptotic variance matrices of the phase differences which characterizes the severity of the fluctuations. It is found that the cycle space of the graph of the system plays a role in this characterization. With theory of the cycle space, the effect of forming small cycles on the fluctuations is evaluated. It is proven that adding a new line or increasing the coupling strength of a line affects the fluctuations in the lines in any cycle including this line, while it does not affect the fluctuations in the other lines. In particular, if the phase differences at the synchronous state are not changed by these actions, then the affected fluctuations reduce.

@en

Influence maximization (IM) is a very important issue in social network diffusion analysis. The topology of real social network is large-scale, dynamic, and heterogeneous. The heterogeneity, and continuous expansion and evolution of social network pose a challenge to find influential users. Existing IM algorithms usually assume that social networks are static or dynamic but homogeneous to simplify the complexity of the IM problem. We propose a community-based influence maximization algorithm using network embedding in dynamic heterogeneous social networks. We use DyHATR algorithm to obtain the propagation feature vectors of network nodes, and execute k-means cluster algorithm to transform the original network into a coarse granularity network (CGN). On CGN, we propose a community-based three-hop independent cascade model and construct the objective function of IM problem. We design a greedy heuristics algorithm to solve the IM problem with approximation guarantee and use community structure to quickly identify seed users and estimate their influence value. Experimental results on real social networks demonstrated that compared with existing IM algorithms, our proposed algorithm had better comprehensive performance with respect to the influence value, more less execution time and memory consumption, and better scalability.

@en

The mobile element variant is a very important structural variant, accounting for a quarter of structural variants, and it is closely related to many issues such as genetic diseases and species diversity. However, few detection algorithms of mobile element variants have been developed on third-generation sequencing data. We propose an algorithm ricME that combines sequence realignment and identity calculation for detecting mobile element variants. The ricME first performs an initial detection to obtain the positions of insertions and deletions, and extracts the variant sequences; then applies sequence realignment and identity calculation to obtain the transposon classes related to the variant sequences; finally, adopts a multi-level judgment rule to achieve accurate detection of mobile element variants based on the transposon classes and identities. Compared with a representative long-read based mobile element variant detection algorithm rMETL, the ricME improves the F1-score by 11.5 and 21.7% on simulated datasets and real datasets, respectively.

@en

This paper addresses the problem of studying the impacts of the strategic formation of platoons in automated mobility-on-demand (AMoD) systems in future cities. Forming platoons has the potential to improve traffic efficiency, resulting in reduced travel times and energy consumption. However, in the platoon formation phase, coordinating the vehicles at formation locations for forming a platoon may delay travelers. In order to assess these effects, an agent-based model has been developed to simulate an urban AMoD system in which vehicles travel between service points transporting passengers either forming or not forming platoons. A simulation study was performed on the road network of the city of The Hague, Netherlands, to assess the impact on traveling and energy usage by the strategic formation of platoons. Results show that forming platoons could save up to 9.6% of the system-wide energy consumption for the most efficient car model. However, this effect can vary significantly with the vehicle types and strategies used to form platoons. Findings suggest that, on average, forming platoons reduces the travel times for travelers even if they experience delays while waiting for a platoon to be formed. However, delays lead to longer travel times for the travelers with the platoon leaders, similar to what people experience while traveling in highly congested networks when platoon formation does not happen. Moreover, the platoon delay increases as the volume of AMoD requests decreases; in the case of an AMoD system serving only 20% of the commuter trips (by private cars in the case-study city), the average platoon delays experienced by these trips increase by 25%. We conclude that it is beneficial to form platoons to achieve energy and travel efficiency goals when the volume of AMoD requests is high.@en

Wind and solar photovoltaic (PV) power form vital parts of the energy transition toward renewable energy systems. The rapid development of these two renewables represents an enormous infrastructure construction task including both power generation and its associated electrical grid systems, which will generate demand for metal resources. However, most research on material demands has focused on their power generation systems (wind turbines and PV panels), and few have studied the associated electrical grid systems. Here, we estimate the global metal demands for electrical grid systems associated with wind and utility-scale PV power by 2050, using dynamic material flow analysis based on International Energy Agency's energy scenarios and the typical engineering parameters of transmission grids. Results show that the associated electrical grids require large quantities of metals: 27-81 Mt of copper cumulatively, followed by 20-67 Mt of steel and 11-31 Mt of aluminum. Electrical grids built for solar PV have the largest metal demand, followed by offshore and onshore wind. Power cables are the most metal-consuming electrical components compared to substations and transformers. We also discuss the decommissioning issue of electrical grids and their recovery potential. This study would deepen the understanding of the nexus between renewable energy, grid infrastructure, and metal resources.

@en

Last spring, super dust storms reappeared in East Asia after being absent for one and a half decades. The event caused enormous losses in both Mongolia and China. Accurate simulation of such super sandstorms is valuable for the quantification of health damage, aviation risks, and profound impacts on the Earth system, but also to reveal the climatic driving force and the process of desertification. However, accurate simulation of dust life cycles is challenging, mainly due to imperfect knowledge of emissions. In this study, the emissions that lead to the 2021 spring dust storms are estimated through assimilation of MODIS AOD and ground-based PM10 concentration data simultaneously. With this, the dust concentrations during these super storms could be reproduced and validated with concentration observations. The multi-observation assimilation is also compared against emission inversion that assimilates AOD or PM10 concentration measurements alone, and the added values are analyzed. The emission inversion results reveal that wind-blown dust emissions originated from both China and Mongolia during spring 2021. Specifically, 19.9×106 and 37.5×106ĝ€¯t of particles were released in the Chinese and Mongolian Gobi, respectively, during these severe dust events. By source apportionment it was revealed that the Mongolian Gobi poses more severe threats to the densely populated regions of the Fenwei Plain (FWP) and the North China Plain (NCP) located in northern China than does the Chinese Gobi. It was estimated that 63ĝ€¯% of the dust deposited in FWP was due to transnational transport from Mongolia. For NCP, the long-distance transport dust from Mongolia contributes about 69ĝ€¯% to the dust deposition.

@en