Changes in land systems generate many sustainability challenges. Identifying more sustainable land-use alternatives requires solid theoretical foundations on the causes of land-use/cover changes. Land system science is a maturing field that has produced a wealth of methodological innovations and empirical observations on land-cover and land-use change, from patterns and processes to causes. We take stock of this knowledge by reviewing and synthesizing the theories that explain the causal mechanisms of land-use change, including systemic linkages between distant land-use changes, with a focus on agriculture and forestry processes. We first review theories explaining changes in land-use extent, such as agricultural expansion, deforestation, frontier development, and land abandonment, and changes in land-use intensity, such as agricultural intensification and disintensification. We then synthesize theories of higher-level land system change processes, focusing on: (i) land-use spillovers, including land sparing and rebound effects with intensification, leakage, indirect land-use change, and land-use displacement, and (ii) land-use transitions, defined as structural non-linear changes in land systems, including forest transitions. Theories focusing on the causes of land system changes span theoretically and epistemologically disparate knowledge domains and build from deductive, abductive, and inductive approaches. A grand, integrated theory of land system change remains elusive. Yet, we show that middle-range theories – defined here as contextual generalizations that describe chains of causal mechanisms explaining a well-bounded range of phenomena, as well as the conditions that trigger, enable, or prevent these causal chains –, provide a path towards generalized knowledge of land systems. This knowledge can support progress towards sustainable social-ecological systems.

Simulation and optimisation of district heating and cooling networks requires efficient and realistic models of the individual network elements in order to correctly represent heat losses or gains, temperature propagation and pressure drops. Due to more recent thermal networks incorporating meshing decentralised heat and cold sources, the system often has to deal with variable temperatures and mass flow rates, with flow reversal occurring more frequently. This paper presents the mathematical derivation and software implementation in Modelica of a thermo-hydraulic model for thermal networks that meets the above requirements and compares it to both experimental data and a commonly used model. Good correspondence between experimental data from a controlled test set-up and simulations using the presented model was found. Compared to measurement data from a real district heating network, the simulation results led to a larger error than in the controlled test set-up, but the general trend is still approximated closely and the model yields results similar to a pipe model from the Modelica Standard Library. However, the presented model simulates 1.7 (for low number of volumes) to 68 (for highly discretized pipes) times faster than a conventional model for a realistic test case. A working implementation of the presented model is made openly available within the IBPSA Modelica Library. The model is robust in the sense that grid size and time step do not need to be adapted to the flow rate, as is the case in finite volume models.