The response of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) to a warmer climate is uncertain on long time scales. Climate models, such as those participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6), are used to assess this uncertainty. The Community Earth System Model version 2.1 (CESM2) is a CMIP6 model capable of running climate simulations with either one-way coupling (fixed ice sheet geometry) or two-way coupling (dynamic geometry) to the GrIS. The model features prognostic snow albedo, online downscaling using elevation classes, and a firn pack to refreeze percolating melt water. Here we evaluate the representation of the GrIS surface energy balance and surface mass balance in CESM2 at 1° resolution with fixed GrIS geometry. CESM2 agrees closely with ERA-Interim reanalysis data for key controls on GrIS SMB: surface pressure, sea ice extent, 500 hPa geopotential height, wind speed, and 700 hPa air temperature. Cloudsat-CALIPSO data show that supercooled liquid-containing clouds are adequately represented, whereas comparisons to Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer and CM SAF Cloud, Albedo, and Surface Radiation data set from Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer data second edition data suggest that CESM2 underestimates surface albedo. The seasonal cycle and spatial patterns of surface energy balance and surface mass balance components in CESM2 agree well with regional climate model RACMO2.3p2, with GrIS-integrated melt, refreezing, and runoff bracketed by RACMO2 counterparts at 11 and 1 km. Time series of melt, runoff, and SMB show a break point around 1990, similar to RACMO2. These results suggest that GrIS SMB is realistic in CESM2, which adds confidence to coupled ice sheet-climate experiments that aim to assess the GrIS contribution to future sea level rise.

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We evaluate modelled Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) near-surface climate, surface energy balance (SEB) and surface mass balance (SMB) from the updated regional climate model RACMO2 (1958-2016). The new model version, referred to as RACMO2.3p2, incorporates updated glacier outlines, topography and ice albedo fields. Parameters in the cloud scheme governing the conversion of cloud condensate into precipitation have been tuned to correct inland snowfall underestimation: snow properties are modified to reduce drifting snow and melt production in the ice sheet percolation zone. The ice albedo prescribed in the updated model is lower at the ice sheet margins, increasing ice melt locally. RACMO2.3p2 shows good agreement compared to in situ meteorological data and point SEB/SMB measurements, and better resolves the spatial patterns and temporal variability of SMB compared with the previous model version, notably in the north-east, south-east and along the K-transect in south-western Greenland. This new model version provides updated, high-resolution gridded fields of the GrIS present-day climate and SMB, and will be used for projections of the GrIS climate and SMB in response to a future climate scenario in a forthcoming study.

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Rapid changes in thickness and velocity have been observed at many marine-terminating glaciers in Greenland, impacting the volume of ice they export, or discharge, from the ice sheet. While annual estimates of ice-sheet-wide discharge have been previously derived, higher-resolution records are required to fully constrain the temporal response of these glaciers to various climatic and mechanical drivers that vary in sub-annual scales. Here we sample outlet glaciers wider than 1 km (N=230) to derive the first continuous, ice-sheet-wide record of total ice sheet discharge for the 2000–2016 period, resolving a seasonal variability of 6 %. The amplitude of seasonality varies spatially across the ice sheet from 5 % in the southeastern region to 9 % in the northwest region. We analyze seasonal to annual variability in the discharge time series with respect to both modeled meltwater runoff, obtained from RACMO2.3p2, and glacier front position changes over the same period. We find that year-to-year changes in total ice sheet discharge are related to annual front changes (r2=0.59, p=10 −4 ) and that the annual magnitude of discharge is closely related to cumulative front position changes (r2=0.79), which show a net retreat of >400 km, or an average retreat of >2 km, at each surveyed glacier. Neither maximum seasonal runoff or annual runoff totals are correlated to annual discharge, which suggests that larger annual quantities of runoff do not relate to increased annual discharge. Discharge and runoff, however, follow similar patterns of seasonal variability with near-coincident periods of acceleration and seasonal maxima. These results suggest that changes in glacier front position drive secular trends in discharge, whereas the impact of runoff is likely limited to the summer months when observed seasonal variations are substantially controlled by the timing of meltwater input.@en

Transient meltwater accumulation in Greenland spans the entire ice layer, down to the ice bed. As such, this process may have a large impact on Greenland ice dynamics and on the future ice sheet evolution. GrIS subglacial hydrology is an area of active research. Unfortunately, it is difficult to validate and calibrate existing subglacial hydrology models because of intrinsic data limitations. Data collected in situ or from aircraft have a very limited spatial or/and temporal coverage, whereas space-borne electromagnetic sensors (both passive and active) are capable of observing only the near-surface part of the ice layer. With our study, we present the first direct observations of transient meltwater accumulation in Greenland with satellite gravimetry. We estimate total mass anomalies using GRACE satellite mission data and subtract from them the contributions associated with the Surface Mass Balance (SMB) and the Ice Discharge (ID). The SMB estimates are provided by the Regional Atmospheric Climate Model v. 2.3 (RACMO 2.3). The signal related to ID is approximated by a linear function fitting the “Total minus SMB” residuals in spring and autumn months. An analysis of seasonal variations in ice flow at 55 outlet glaciers in northwest and southeast Greenland shows that the deviations of ID-related mass anomalies from a linear trend are negligible. By taking the average of seasonal mass variations in 2003–2013, we observe substantial meltwater accumulation in Greenland during summer, with a peak value of 80-120 Gt in July. At the regional scale, the largest accumulation is observed in the southeast and northwest parts of Greenland: up to about 40 Gt in each region. The extracted signal is not altered substantially when using an alternative snow and firn model called SNOWPACK, which partitions meltwater into refreezing and runoff differently, as compared to RACMO 2.3. Furthermore, the meltwater accumulation signal is present in all of the considered GRACE data product variants and processing schemes, though with somewhat different magnitude and timing. Our study shows that GRACE data are capable of sensing transient meltwater accumulation not only at the scale of entire GrIS, but also at the scale of individual drainage systems. A continuation of research efforts is envisioned in order to further improve the accuracy of the obtained estimates.@en

The Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) is currently losing ice mass as the result of changes in the complex ice-climate interactions that have been driven by global climate change. In order to accurately predict future sea level rise, the mechanisms driving the observed mass loss must be better understood. Here, we combine data from the satellite gravimetry mission GRACE, surface mass balance (SMB) output of RACMO 2.3, and ice discharge estimates to analyze the mass budget of Greenland at various temporal and spatial scales. Firstly, in agreement with previous estimates, we find that the rate of mass loss from Greenland observed by GRACE was between −277 and −269 Gt/yr in 2003–2012. This estimate is consistent with the sum of individual contributions: surface mass balance (SMB, around 216 ± 122 Gt/yr) and ice discharge (520 ± 31 Gt/yr), indicating a good performance of the regional climate model. Secondly, we examine the average accelerations of mass anomalies in Greenland over 2003–2012, suggesting that the SMB (−23.3 ± 2.7 Gt/yr2) contributes 75 % to the total acceleration observed by GRACE. The remaining contributions to the mass loss acceleration for entire Greenland are statistically insignificant. Finally and most importantly, this study suggests the existence of a substantial meltwater storage during summer, with a peak value of 80–120 Gt in July. The robustness of this estimate is demonstrated by using both different GRACE-based solutions and different meltwater runoff estimates (namely, RACMO 2.3 and SNOWPACK). Meltwater storage in the ice sheet occurs primarily due to storage in the high-accumulation regions of the southeast (SE) and northwest (NW) parts of Greenland. Analysis of seasonal variations in outlet glacier discharge shows that the contribution of ice discharge to the observed signal is minor (at the level of only a few Gt) and does not explain the intra-annual differences between the total mass and SMB signals.@en

Melting of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) and its peripheral glaciers and ice caps (GICs) contributes about 43% to contemporary sea level rise. While patterns of GrIS mass loss are well studied, the spatial and temporal evolution of GICs mass loss and the acting processes have remained unclear. Here we use a novel, 1 km surface mass balance product, evaluated against in situ and remote sensing data, to identify 1997 (±5 years) as a tipping point for GICs mass balance. That year marks the onset of a rapid deterioration in the capacity of the GICs firn to refreeze meltwater. Consequently, GICs runoff increases 65% faster than meltwater production, tripling the post-1997 mass loss to 36±16 Gt -'1, or -1/414% of the Greenland total. In sharp contrast, the extensive inland firn of the GrIS retains most of its refreezing capacity for now, buffering 22% of the increased meltwater production. This underlines the very different response of the GICs and GrIS to atmospheric warming.

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Runoff has recently become the main source of mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet and is an important contributor to global sea level rise. Linking runoff to surface meltwater production is complex, as meltwater can be retained within the firn by refreezing or perennial liquid water storage. To constrain these uncertainties, the outputs of two offline snow/firn models of different complexity (IMAU-FDM and SNOWPACK) are compared to assess the sensitivity of meltwater retention to the model formulation (e.g., densification, irreducible water content, vertical resolution). Results indicate that model differences are largest in areas where firn aquifers form, i.e., particularly along the south-eastern margin of the ice sheet. The IMAU-FDM simulates higher densification rates for such climatic conditions and prescribes a lower irreducible water content than SNOWPACK. As a result, the model predicts substantially lower amounts of refreezing and liquid water storage. SNOWPACK performs better for this area, confirmed both by density profiles from firn cores and radar-inferred observations. Refreezing integrated over the entire ice sheet and averaged for the period 1960–2014 amounts to 216 Gt a−1 (IMAU-FDM) and 242 Gt a−1 (SNOWPACK), which is 41 and 46% of the total liquid water input (snowmelt and rainfall). The mean areal extents of perennial firn aquifers for 2010–2014 simulated by the models are 55,700 km2 (IMAU-FDM) and 90,200 km2 (SNOWPACK). Discrepancies between modeled firn profiles and observations emphasize the importance of processes currently not accounted for in most snow/firn models, such as vertical heterogeneous percolation, ponding of water on impermeable layers, lateral (sub-)surface water flow, and the issue of ill-constrained refreezing conditions at the base of firn aquifers.@en

This study presents a data set of daily, 1 km resolution Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) surface mass balance (SMB) covering the period 1958–2015. Applying corrections for elevation, bare ice albedo and accumulation bias, the high-resolution product is statistically downscaled from the native daily output of the polar regional climate model RACMO2.3 at 11 km. The data set includes all individual SMB components projected to a down-sampled version of the Greenland Ice Mapping Project (GIMP) digital elevation model and ice mask. The 1 km mask better resolves narrow ablation zones, valley glaciers, fjords and disconnected ice caps. Relative to the 11 km product, the more detailed representation of isolated glaciated areas leads to increased precipitation over the southeastern GrIS. In addition, the downscaled product shows a significant increase in runoff owing to better resolved low-lying marginal glaciated regions. The combined corrections for elevation and bare ice albedo markedly improve model agreement with a newly compiled data set of ablation measurements.@en