In the coming decade, JUICE and Europa Clipper radio-science will yield the most accurate estimation to date of the Galilean moons’ physical parameters and ephemerides. JUICE's PRIDE (Planetary Radio Interferometry and Doppler Experiment) will help achieve such a solution by providing VLBI (Very Long Baseline Interferometry) observations of the spacecraft's lateral position, complementing nominal radio-science measurements. In this paper, we quantify how PRIDE VLBI can contribute to the moons’ ephemerides determination, in terms of attainable solution improvement and validation opportunities. To this end, we simulated VLBI data for JUICE, but also investigated the possibility to perform simultaneous tracking of JUICE and Europa Clipper, thus ultimately generating both single- and dual-spacecraft VLBI. We considered various tracking and data quality scenarios for both VLBI types, and compared the formal uncertainties provided by covariance analyses with and without VLBI. These analyses were performed for both global and local (i.e. per-flyby) estimations of the moons’ states, as eventually achieving a global solution first requires proceeding arc-per-arc. We showed that both single- and multi-spacecraft VLBI measurements only bring limited improvement to the global state estimation, but significantly contribute to the moons’ normal points (i.e. local states at flyby times), most notably in the out-of-plane direction. Additionally, we designed a validation plan exploiting PRIDE VLBI to progressively validate the classical radio-science solution, whose robustness and statistical realism is sensitive to modelling inconsistencies. By improving the local state estimations and offering various validation opportunities, PRIDE will be invaluable in overcoming possible dynamical challenges. It can therefore play a key role in reconstructing a global solution for the Galilean moons’ dynamics with the uncertainty levels promised by JUICE-Europa Clipper analyses. This, in turn, is critical to the accurate characterisation of tidal dissipation in the Jovian system, holding the key to the long-term evolution of the Galilean moons.

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Context. The upcoming JUICE and Europa Clipper missions targeting Jupiter s Galilean satellites will provide radio science tracking measurements of both spacecraft. Such data are expected to significantly help estimating the moons ephemerides and related dynamical parameters (e.g. tidal dissipation parameters). However, the two missions will yield an imbalanced dataset, with no flybys planned at Io, condensed over less than six years. Current ephemerides solutions for the Galilean moons, on the other hand, rely on ground-based astrometry collected over more than a century which, while being less accurate, bring very valuable constraints on the long-term dynamics of the system. Aims. An improved solution for the Galilean satellites complex dynamics could however be achieved by exploiting the existing synergies between these different observation sets. Methods. To quantify this, we merged simulated radio science data from both JUICE and Europa Clipper spacecraft with existing ground-based astrometric and radar observations, and performed the inversion in different configurations: either adding all available ground observations or individually assessing the contribution of different data subsets. Our discussion specifically focusses on the resulting formal uncertainties in the moons states, as well as Io s and Jupiter s tidal dissipation parameters. Results. Adding astrometry stabilises the moons state solution, especially beyond the missions timelines. It furthermore reduces the uncertainties in 1/Q (inverse of the tidal quality factor) by a factor two to four for Jupiter, and about 30- 35% for Io. Among all data types, classical astrometry data prior to 1960 proved particularly beneficial. Overall, we also show that ground observations of Io add the most to the solution, confirming that ground observations can fill the lack of radio science data for this specific moon. Conclusions. We obtained a noticeable solution improvement when making use of the complementarity between all different observation sets. The promising results obtained with simulations thus motivate future efforts to achieve a global solution from actual JUICE and Clipper radio science measurements.

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Context. Stellar occultations currently provide the most accurate ground-based measurements of the positions of natural satellites (down to a few kilometres for the Galilean moons). However, when using these observations in the calculation of satellite ephemerides, the uncertainty in the planetary ephemerides dominates the error budget of the occultation. Aims. We quantify the local refinement in the central planet's position achievable by performing Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI) tracking of an in-system spacecraft temporally close to an occultation. We demonstrate the potential of using VLBI to enhance the science return of stellar occultations for satellite ephemerides. Methods. We identified the most promising observation and tracking opportunities offered by the Juno spacecraft around Jupiter as perfect test cases, for which we ran simulations of our VLBI experiment. Results. VLBI tracking at Juno's perijove close to a stellar occultation locally (in time) reduces the uncertainty in Jupiter's angular position in the sky to 250-400 m. This represents up to an order of magnitude improvement with respect to current solutions and is lower than the stellar occultation error, thus allowing the moon ephemeris solution to fully benefit from the observation. Conclusions. Our simulations showed that the proposed tracking and observation experiment can efficiently use synergies between ground- and space-based observations to enhance the science return on both ends. The reduced error budget for stellar occultations indeed helps to improve the moons'ephemerides, which in turn benefit planetary missions and their science products, such as the recently launched JUICE and upcoming Europa Clipper missions.

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When reconstructing natural satellites' ephemerides from space missions' tracking data, the dynamics of the spacecraft and natural bodies are often solved for separately, in a decoupled manner. Alternatively, the ephemeris generation and spacecraft orbit determination can be performed concurrently. This method directly maps the available data set to the estimated parameters' covariances while fully accounting for all dynamical couplings. It thus provides a statistically consistent solution to the estimation problem, whereas this is not directly ensured with the decoupled strategy. For the Galilean moons in particular, the JUICE mission provides a unique, although challenging, opportunity for ephemerides improvement. For such a dynamically coupled problem, choosing between the two state estimation strategies will be influential. This paper quantifies the Galilean moons' state uncertainties attainable when applying a coupled estimation strategy to simulated JUICE data, and discusses the challenges that remain to be addressed to achieve such a coupled solution from real observations. We first provide a detailed, explicit formulation for the coupled approach, which was still missing in the literature although already used in past studies. We then assessed the relative performances of the two ephemerides generation techniques for the JUICE test case. To this end, we used both decoupled and coupled models on simulated JUICE radiometric data. We compared the resulting covariances for the Galilean moons' states, and showed that the decoupled approach yields slightly lower formal errors for the moons' tangential positions. However, the coupled model can reduce the state uncertainties by more than one order of magnitude in the radial direction (i.e. towards the central body). It also proved more sensitive to the dynamical coupling between Io, Europa and Ganymede, allowing the state solutions for the first two moons to fully benefit from JUICE orbital phase around Ganymede. On the other hand, we showed that the choice of state estimation methods does not strongly affect the moons' gravity field determination. Many issues still remain to be solved before a concurrent estimation strategy can be successfully applied, especially to reconstruct the moons’ dynamics over long timescales. Nonetheless, our analysis highlights promising ephemerides improvements and thus motivates future efforts to reach a coupled state solution for the Galilean moons.

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Context. The apparent close encounters of two satellites in the plane of the sky, called mutual approximations, have been suggested as a different type of astrometric observation to refine the moons' ephemerides. The main observables are then the central instants of the close encounters, which have the advantage of being free of any scaling and orientation errors. However, no analytical formulation is available yet for the observation partials of these central instants, leaving numerical approaches or alternative observables (i.e. derivatives of the apparent distance instead of central instants) as options. Aims. Filling that gap, this paper develops an analytical method to include central instants as direct observables in the ephemerides estimation and assesses the quality of the resulting solution. Methods. To this end, the apparent relative position between the two satellites is approximated by a second-order polynomial near the close encounter. This eventually leads to an expression for mutual approximations' central instants as a function of the apparent relative position, velocity, and acceleration between the two satellites. Results. The resulting analytical expressions for the central instant partials were validated numerically. In addition, we ran a covariance analysis to compare the estimated solutions obtained with the two types of observables (central instants versus alternative observables), using the Galilean moons of Jupiter as a test case. Our analysis shows that alternative observables are almost equivalent to central instants in most cases. Accurate individual weighting of each alternative observable, accounting for the mutual approximation's characteristics (which are automatically included in the central instants' definition), is however crucial to obtain consistent solutions between the two observable types. Using central instants still yields a small improvement of 10-20% of the formal errors in the radial and normal directions (RSW frame), compared to the alternative observables' solution. This improvement increases when mutual approximations with low impact parameters and large impact velocities are included in the estimation. Conclusions. Choosing between the two observables thus requires careful assessment, taking into account the characteristics of the available observations. Using central instants over alternative observables ensures that the state estimation fully benefits from the information encoded in mutual approximations, which might be necessary depending on the application of the ephemeris solution.

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The Jupiter Icy Moons Explorer (JUICE) mission will perform detailed measurements of the properties of the Galilean moons, with a nominal in-system science-mission duration of about 3.5 years. Using both the radio tracking data, and (Earth- and JUICE-based) optical astrometry, the dynamics of the Galilean moons will be measured to unprecedented accuracy. This will provide crucial input to the determination of the ephemerides and physical properties of the system, most notably the dissipation in Io and Jupiter. The data from Planetary Radio Interferometry and Doppler Experiment (PRIDE) will provide the lateral position of the spacecraft in the International Celestial Reference Frame (ICRF). In this article, we analyze the relative quantitative influence of the JUICE-PRIDE observables to the determination of the ephemerides of the Jovian system and the associated physical parameters. We perform a covariance analysis for a broad range of mission and system characteristics. We analyze the influence of VLBI data quality, observation planning, as well as the influence of JUICE orbit determination quality. This provides key input for the further development of the PRIDE observational planning and ground segment development. Our analysis indicates that the VLBI data are especially important for constraining the dynamics of Ganymede and Callisto perpendicular to their orbital planes. Also, the use of the VLBI data makes the uncertainty in the ephemerides less dependent on the error in the orbit determination of the JUICE spacecraft itself. Furthermore, we find that optical astrometry data of especially Io using the JANUS instrument will be crucial for stabilizing the solution of the normal equations. Knowledge of the dissipation in the Jupiter system cannot be improved using satellite dynamics obtained from JUICE data alone, the uncertainty in Io's dissipation obtained from our simulations is similar to the present level of uncertainty.

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Radio tracking and astrometric data obtained by the JUICE mission, using the PRIDE, 3GM and JANUS instruments, will allow the dynamics of the Galilean moons to be measured to unprecedented accuracy. As a result, the dynamical models used for creating ephemerides from these data will most likely require the inclusion of various heretofore neglected physical effects.

To determine which effects will need to be included, we perform a sensitivity analysis of the influence on the dynamics of the system for a wide array of gravitational, tidal and rotational characteristics of the system. We estimate the dynamics of the Galilean moons with a given perturbation turned off, using ideal three-dimensional measurements of the satellites' positions generated with these perturbations turned on. In doing so, we assess the capabilities of the nominal dynamical model to absorb the influence of this perturbations. We analyze the dynamical behaviour over a period of five years, and limit our analysis to effects that may be observable from JUICE radio tracking and optical astrometry data. Our simulations comprise a short-period (5 years) sensitivity analysis of the dynamics of the moons, and not a simulation of the tracking data inversion for JUICE.

Our analysis indicates that the nominal dynamical model of the Galilean satellites can very efficiently absorb the influence of the current uncertainties in most of the physical parameters of the Jovian system, to a level where these uncertainties will not be influential for JUICE-derived ephemerides. An important exception is the influence of tidal dissipation: the k2/Qk2/Q of Io will be clearly observable by JUICE tracking data, which will be strongly correlated with the weaker effect of Jupiter's k2/Qk2/Q. The dissipation inside Europa may also be weakly constrained by JUICE tracking data. Without improvements in the Jovian gravity field from the Juno mission, the estimation of Jupiter zonal gravity field coefficients at degrees 2, 3 and 5 should be included in the ephemerides generation. The influence of the deviation from perfect tidal locking of the moons' rotation is at the limit of observability. Furthermore, we have verified that the present uncertainty in the a priori ephemeris of Jupiter will not influence the (Jupiter-centered) dynamics of the Galilean moons at an observable level.
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Context. The closest ever fly-by of the Martian moon Phobos, performed by the European Space Agency's Mars Express spacecraft, gives a unique opportunity to sharpen and test the Planetary Radio Interferometry and Doppler Experiments (PRIDE) technique in the interest of studying planet-satellite systems. Aims. The aim of this work is to demonstrate a technique of providing high precision positional and Doppler measurements of planetary spacecraft using the Mars Express spacecraft. The technique will be used in the framework of Planetary Radio Interferometry and Doppler Experiments in various planetary missions, in particular in fly-by mode. Methods. We advanced a novel approach to spacecraft data processing using the techniques of Doppler and phase-referenced very long baseline interferometry spacecraft tracking. Results. We achieved, on average, mHz precision (30 μm/s at a 10 s integration time) for radial three-way Doppler estimates and sub-nanoradian precision for lateral position measurements, which in a linear measure (at a distance of 1.4 AU) corresponds to ∼50 m.

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