Planning for the Transition to Clean Shared Mobility

Abstract

This research aims to evaluate the policies and strategies that cities can deploy to facilitate the transition to clean shared mobility. The literature review supports the research through providing insights into the direction of the shared mobility market, charging infrastructure, electric vehicle development, charging behavior, as well as existing government and policy instruments and spatial considerations for charging infrastructure. Using metrics, such as uptake in electric vehicles and deployment rate of shared mobility services, a baseline analysis is conducted to establish recent trends in this field for the case study of Amsterdam. Next, the development of the system dynamics model provides insights into the interactions between the various aspects of the personal and shared mobility system that can be used to evaluate potential policy scenarios. Amsterdam’s (2019a) Clean Air Action Plan and similar goalsetting plans provide targets to which policies must be steered; therefore, the policies or policy packages to achieve the goals set can be developed via backcasting. Leveraging the four scenarios from the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL), four potential policy packages are developed in accordance with the governance, sustainability, and technological directions prescribed (PBL, 2019). These policy packages are then used in the system dynamics model, which accounts for stakeholder behavior, to evaluate the packages’ effects on the carsharing market, electric vehicle market share, parking and spatial considerations, and charging infrastructure demands. Based on the case study considered for the City of Amsterdam, the resulting trends show that the policy packages evaluated facilitate carsharing as a conduit to drastically reduce the market share of personal vehicles and are critical to the shift towards electric vehicle market dominance. The results can then be compared to inform the relative effectiveness of the policy packages considered. While there are limitations to the study, the model provides a beneficial tool for governments to evaluate effectiveness, side-effects, and constraints of transitioning the personal vehicle market towards a more sustainable future.