This thesis investigates methods to enhance the robustness of space object cataloguing pipelines, focusing on tracklet correlation and orbit estimation using angular measurements from short observation arcs. The cataloguing robustness is defined as achieving high true positive an
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This thesis investigates methods to enhance the robustness of space object cataloguing pipelines, focusing on tracklet correlation and orbit estimation using angular measurements from short observation arcs. The cataloguing robustness is defined as achieving high true positive and negative rates for tracklet correlation to allow for the build-up of an accurate object catalogue. The study addresses the main research question: How can the robustness of the cataloguing pipeline be improved when applying orbit estimation methods to the full angle set of short observation arcs?
A baseline tracklet correlation approach, based on the Boundary Value Problem (BVP) within the Admissible Region framework, is implemented. This method uses angular observations and hypothesized ranges to estimate an object's state, with correlations evaluated via a cost function based on the Mahalanobis distance. Classical IOD methods are employed to investigate their application toward validation of tracklet correlation when reconsidering the full angle set. The considered methods include the angles-only Gauss method, a multiple angles least-squares Gauss approach, Gooding’s method, as well as a Batch Least Squares (BLS) orbit determination (OD) method. The BVP and IOD methods consider two-body dynamics, and the BLS Earth's zonal harmonics and third body effects from the Sun and Moon. Simulated measurements are derived from Two Line Element sets (TLE) for initial reference states for LEO, MEO, and GEO objects, propagated with the SGP4 model accounting for Earth's atmospheric drag, zonal harmonics and third body Sun and Moon effects, providing the test data.
Results show that the BVP method performs best for GEO, achieving ~90% true positive rates with reasonable uncertainty gating. For LEO and MEO, higher thresholds and cost-function minima are required due to greater observation complexity and force-model discrepancy. Gooding’s method, making use of a Lambert solver, demonstrated robust performance across multiple orbital revolutions, while Gauss’ methods were less effective for large time gaps. Additionally, BLS struggled with sparse data and large time steps, offering limited state refinement despite higher computational expense.
The findings suggest gating based on chi-squared distribution thresholds for GEO and higher magnitudes for LEO and MEO to optimize true negative rates. While the BVP method provides sufficient accuracy for re-observation scenarios, classical IOD methods and BLS exhibit limitations under sparse tracklet conditions. This work highlights challenges in cataloguing lower-altitude objects, for ground-based optical observations, and suggests the application of the BVP method on lower altitudes requires inclusion of force models for the primary perturbations.