The joint ESA/NASA Mass-change And Geosciences International Constellation (MAGIC) has the objective to extend time-series from previous gravity missions, including an improvement of accuracy and spatio-temporal resolution. The long-term monitoring of Earth’s gravity field carries information on mass change induced by water cycle, climate change and mass transport processes between atmosphere, cryosphere, oceans and solid Earth. MAGIC will be composed of two satellite pairs flying in different orbit planes. The NASA/DLR-led first pair (P1) is expected to be in a near-polar orbit around 500 km of altitude; while the second ESA-led pair (P2) is expected to be in an inclined orbit of 65^◦–70^◦ at approximately 400 km altitude. The ESA-led pair P2 Next Generation Gravity Mission shall be launched after P1 in a staggered manner to form the MAGIC constellation. The addition of an inclined pair shall lead to reduction of temporal aliasing effects and consequently of reliance on de-aliasing models and post-processing. The main novelty of the MAGIC constellation is the delivery of mass-change products at higher spatial resolution, temporal (i.e. subweekly) resolution, shorter latency and higher accuracy than the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment Follow-On (GRACE-FO). This will pave the way to new science applications and operational services. In this paper, an overview of various fields of science and service applications for hydrology, cryosphere, oceanography, solid Earth, climate change and geodesy is provided. These thematic fields and newly enabled applications and services were analysed in the frame of the initial ESA Science Support activities for MAGIC. The analyses of MAGIC scenarios for different application areas in the field of geosciences confirmed that the double-pair configuration will significantly enlarge the number of observable mass-change phenomena by resolving smaller spatial scales with an uncertainty that satisfies evolved user requirements expressed by international bodies such as IUGG. The required uncertainty levels of dedicated thematic fields met by MAGIC unfiltered Level-2 products will benefit hydrological applications by recovering more than 90 per cent of the major river basins worldwide at 260 km spatial resolution, cryosphere applications by enabling mass change signal separation in the interior of Greenland from those in the coastal zones and by resolving small-scale mass variability in challenging regions such as the Antarctic Peninsula, oceanography applications by monitoring meridional overturning circulation changes on timescales of years and decades, climate applications by detecting amplitude and phase changes of Terrestrial Water Storage after 30 yr in 64 and 56 per cent of the global land areas and solid Earth applications by lowering the Earthquake detection threshold from magnitude 8.8 to magnitude 7.4 with spatial resolution increased to 333 km.

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Satellite drag modeling remains the largest source of uncertainty affecting space operations in low Earth orbit. The uncertainty stems from inaccurate models for mass density and drag coefficient. Drag coefficient modeling also impacts scientific knowledge on the physics and dynamics of the upper atmosphere through the estimation of high-fidelity mass density from measurements of acceleration on-board satellites. Efforts over the last decade have pushed drag coefficient modeling in the right direction, however, have resulted in multiple methods and tools. We provide a comprehensive review of the drag coefficient modeling methods and tools. Current scale differences between thermospheric data sets mostly originate from errors in the aerodynamic modeling, specifically in the modeling of the satellite outer surface geometry and the gas-surface interactions. Enhancing these models’ accuracy is intrinsically connected to the satellite drag fidelity for science and operations. A team of invested scientists recently met under the community-driven International Space Weather Action Teams (ISWAT) initiative to discuss and consolidate the efforts towards a drag coefficient modeling baseline for consistency in science and operations. In this paper, we compare the available methods for drag coefficient modeling, their impact on the derived density estimates, and make recommendations for adoption of baseline methods for science and operations. Results show that the differences in derived densities estimates can reach tens of percent at altitudes above 4̃50 km during solar minimum conditions resulting mainly from differences in the modeling of gas-surface interactions. As a result, we conclude and recommend that robust uncertainty quantification be an integral part of any modeling efforts that employ the high-fidelity accelerometer derived density estimates. We also conclude and recommend that gas-surface interaction models that account for impact of altitude and solar variations be employed moving forward. Finally, we recommend future science missions to improve our understanding of gas-surface interactions and eventually the upper thermosphere variability.

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The lower-Thermosphere-ionosphere (LTI) system consists of the upper atmosphere and the lower part of the ionosphere and as such comprises a complex system coupled to both the atmosphere below and space above. The atmospheric part of the LTI is dominated by laws of continuum fluid dynamics and chemistry, while the ionosphere is a plasma system controlled by electromagnetic forces driven by the magnetosphere, the solar wind, as well as the wind dynamo. The LTI is hence a domain controlled by many different physical processes. However, systematic in situ measurements within this region are severely lacking, although the LTI is located only 80 to 200 km above the surface of our planet. This paper reviews the current state of the art in measuring the LTI, either in situ or by several different remote-sensing methods. We begin by outlining the open questions within the LTI requiring high-quality in situ measurements, before reviewing directly observable parameters and their most important derivatives. The motivation for this review has arisen from the recent retention of the Daedalus mission as one among three competing mission candidates within the European Space Agency (ESA) Earth Explorer 10 Programme. However, this paper intends to cover the LTI parameters such that it can be used as a background scientific reference for any mission targeting in situ observations of the LTI.

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The satellite acceleration data from the CHAMP, GRACE, GOCE, and Swarm missions provide detailed information on the thermosphere density over the last two decades. Recent work on reducing errors in modelling the spacecraft geometry has greatly reduced scale differences between the thermosphere data sets from these missions. However, residual inconsistencies between the data sets and between data and models are still present. To a large extent, these differences originate in the modelling of the gas-surface interactions (GSI), which is part of the satellite aerodynamic modelling used in the acceleration to density data processing. Physics-based GSI models require in-situ atmospheric composition and temperature data that are not measured by any of the above-mentioned satellites and, as a consequence, rely on thermosphere models for these inputs. To reduce the dependence on existing thermosphere models, we choose a GSI model with a constant energy accommodation coefficient per mission, which we optimize exploiting particular attitude manoeuvres and wind analyses to increase the self-consistency of the multi-mission thermosphere mass density data sets. We compare our results with those based on variable energy accommodation obtained by different studies and semi-empirical models to show the principal differences. The presented comparisons provide novel opportunity to quantify the discrepancies between current GSI models. Among the presented data, density variations with variable accommodation are within ±10%, and peaks can reach up to 15% at the poles. The largest differences occur during low solar activity periods. In addition, we utilize a series of attitude manoeuvres performed in May 2014 by the Swarm A and C satellites, which are flying in close proximity, to evaluate the residual inconsistency of the density observations as a function of the energy accommodation coefficient. Our analysis demonstrates that an energy accommodation coefficient of 0.85 maximizes the consistency of the Swarm density observations during the attitude manoeuvres. Using such coefficient, for Swarm A and Swarm C, the new density would be lower in magnitude with a 4-5% difference. In recent studies, similar energy accommodation coefficients were retrieved for the CHAMP and GOCE missions by investigating thermospheric winds. These new values for the energy accommodation coefficient provide a higher consistency among different missions and models. A comparison of neutral densities between current thermosphere models and observations indicates that semi-empirical models such as NRLMSISE-00 and DTM-2013 significantly overestimate the density, and that an overall higher consistency between the observations from the different missions can be achieved with the presented assumptions. The new densities from this work provide consistencies of 4.13% and 3.65% between the minimum and maximum mean ratios among the selected missions with NRLMSISE-00 and DTM-2013, respectively. A comparison with the WACCM-X general circulation model is also performed. Similar to the other models, WACCM-X seems to provide higher estimates of mass density especially under high and moderate solar activities. This work has the objective to guide density data users over the multiple data sets and highlight the remaining uncertainties associated with different GSI models.

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The re-estimates of thermospheric winds from the Gravity field and steady-state Ocean Circulation Explorer (GOCE) accelerometer measurements were released in April 2019. In this study, we compared the new-released GOCE crosswind (cross-track wind) data with the horizontal winds measured by four Fabry-Perot interferometers (FPIs) located at low and middle latitudes. Our results show that during magnetically quiet periods the GOCE crosswind on the dusk side has typical seasonal variations with largest speed around December and the lowest speed around June, which is consistent with the ground-FPI measurements. The correlation coefficients between the four stations and GOCE crosswind data all reach around 0.6. However, the magnitude of the GOCE crosswind is somehow larger than the FPIs wind, with average ratios between 1.37 and 1.69. During geomagnetically active periods, the GOCE and FPI derived winds have a lower agreement, with average ratios of 0.85 for the Asian station (XL) and about 2.15 for the other three American stations (PAR, Arecibo and CAR). The discrepancies of absolute wind values from the GOCE accelerometer and ground-based FPIs should be mainly due to the different measurement principles of the two techniques. Our results also suggested that the wind measurements from the XL FPI located at the Asian sector has the same quality with the FPIs at the American sector, although with lower time resolution.

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The German CHAMP, US/German GRACE, and European Space Agency (ESA) GOCE and Swarm Earth Explorer satellites have provided a data set of accelerometer observations allowing the derivation of thermospheric density and wind products for a period spanning more than 15 years. With the advent of highly accurate satellite accelerometer measurements, the neutral density and wind characterization has been significantly improved. These observations provided detailed information on the thermospheric forcing by Solar Extreme Ultraviolet radiation and charged particles, and revealed for the first time the extent of forcing by processes in lower layers of the atmosphere. Because the focus of most of previous research was on relative changes in density, the scale differences between the CHAMP, GRACE, GOCE and Swarm data sets, so far, have been largely ignored. These scale differences originate from errors in the aerodynamic modelling, specifically in the modelling of the gas-surface interactions (GSI) of the satellite. Once detailed 3D geometry models of these satellites are available, the key parameters to describe the satellite aerodynamics can be estimated by cleverly making use of variations in satellite orientation and simultaneous observations by multiple satellites. The first step for obtaining more consistent density and wind data sets consisted of meticulously modelling the satellite outer surface. For this dissertation work, this was done by collecting information from technical drawings and pre-launch pictures, and generating a CAD model of the selected satellites. In the following phase, these geometries were given as input to a rarefied gas-dynamics simulator. The Direct Simulation Monte Carlo approach was used with the SPARTA software to compute the force coefficients under different conditions of satellite speed, atmospheric temperature and local chemical composition. Once all the mission scenarios had been simulated, an aerodynamic data set was generated and applied in the processing of satellite accelerations into thermospheric density and wind data products. To this aim, the Near Real-Time Density Model (NRTDM) software, developed at TU Delft, was used. The data were generated from accelerometer observations and, when necessary, with the help of GPS-based accelerations estimated by a Precise Orbit Determination (POD) technique. Multiple comparisons were performed with empirical and physics-based models. This helped in determining for which conditions the models are performing better, and also which models’ features would need further development. In the second step, the interaction between atmospheric particles and satellite surfaces was investigated. The way in which atmospheric particles collide with the satellite surfaces have a large influence on the satellite aerodynamic forces and, if proper assumptions are not implemented, can produce large discrepancies in the final thermospheric products. Initially, the GSI assumptions were selected in agreement with the fully diffusive reflection mode. This assumption was adopted to exclusively investigate the geometry modelling influence on thermospheric products. Later, to cover also this research area, multiple simulations described different reflection modes. A wide range of GSI parameters was investigated, and more optimal values were found allowing the derivation of new consistent thermospheric products. Within this study, the energy accommodation coefficient, which describes the energy exchange between particles and satellite surfaces, played a crucial role. Although the value of 0.93 is used commonly in the literature, in this study lower values were identified as optimal. Indeed, a value of 0.82 for the GOCE satellite, and a value of 0.85 for the Swarm and CHAMP satellites have been found to provide more consistent thermospheric data. This resulted in new improved thermospheric density and wind data sets, which have been made available to the scientific community. Among the possible applications, these data can be used for data assimilation for improving current atmospheric models. Resolving the problem of deriving the true absolute thermosphere density scale from satellite dynamics measurements improves orbit predictions for the space debris population and its long-term evolution. Moreover, the new capabilities for computing more consistent drag, density and wind, can also be exploited for future missions that are currently in the design phase. @en

After the detection of many anomalies in the Swarm accelerometer data, an alternative method has been developed to determine thermospheric densities for the three-satellite mission. Using a precise orbit determination approach, non-gravitational and aerodynamic-only accelerations are estimated from the high-quality Swarm GPS data. The GPS-derived non-gravitational accelerations serve as a baseline for the correction of the Swarm-C along-track accelerometer data. The aerodynamic accelerations are converted directly into thermospheric densities for all Swarm satellites, albeit at a much lower temporal resolution than the accelerometers would have been able to deliver. The resulting density and acceleration data sets are part of the European Space Agency Level 2 Swarm products. To improve the Swarm densities, two modifications have recently been added to our original processing scheme. They consist of a more refined handling of radiation pressure accelerations and the use of a high-fidelity satellite geometry and improved aerodynamic model. These modifications lead to a better agreement between estimated Swarm densities and NRLMSISE-00 model densities. The GPS-derived Swarm densities show variations due to solar and geomagnetic activity, as well as seasonal, latitudinal and diurnal variations. For low solar activity, however, the aerodynamic signal experienced by the Swarm satellites is very small, and therefore it is more difficult to accurately resolve latitudinal density variability using GPS data, especially for the higher-flying Swarm-B satellite. Therefore, mean orbit densities are also included in the Swarm density product.

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The CHAMP and GOCE satellites provided high-resolution thermosphere data between 2000 and 2013, improving our knowledge of atmosphere dynamics in the thermosphere-ionosphere region. However, the currently available data sets contain inconsistencies with each other and with external data sets and models, arising to a large extent from errors in the modelling of aerodynamic forces. Improved processing of the wind data for the two satellites would benefit the further development and validation of thermosphere models and improve current understanding of atmospheric dynamics and long-term trends. The first step to remove inconsistencies has been the development of high-fidelity models of the satellite surface geometry. Next, an improved characterization of the collisions between atmospheric particles and satellite surfaces is necessary. In this article, the effect of varying the energy accommodation coefficient, which is a key parameter for describing gas-surface interactions (GSI) is investigated. For past versions of the thermosphere density and wind data from these satellites a value of the energy accommodation coefficient of α_E=0.93 was selected. The satellite accelerometer measurements, from which the thermospheric data are derived, have now been reprocessed using high-fidelity geometries and a wide range of α_E values. Lowering the α_E value used in the processing leads to an increase in the lift over drag ratio for those satellite panels that are inclined to the flow. This changes the direction of the modelled acceleration, and therefore the interpretation of the measured acceleration in terms of wind. The wrong choice of α_E therefore leads to the introduction of satellite attitude-dependent wind errors. For the CHAMP and GOCE satellites, we have found that values of the energy accommodation coefficient significantly lower than 0.93 (0.85 for CHAMP and 0.82 for GOCE) result in increased consistency of the wind data. A comparison between the two missions and an overview of the influence on the results of filtering for solar activity and seasonal and diurnal variations is presented.

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Recently, the horizontal and vertical cross wind at 225- to 295-km altitude were derived from linear acceleration measurements of the Gravity field and steady-state Ocean Circulation Explorer satellite. The vertical component of these wind data is compared to wind data derived from the mass spectrometers of the Atmosphere Explorer C and E and Dynamics Explorer 2 satellites. From a statistical analysis of the 120-s moving-window standard deviation of the vertical wind (σ(V_z)), no consistent discrepancy is found between the accelerometer-derived and the mass spectrometer-derived data. The validated Gravity field and steady-state Ocean Circulation Explorer data are then used to investigate the influence of several parameters and indices on the vertical wind activity. To this end, the probability distribution of σ(V_z) is plotted after distributing the data over bins of the parameter under investigation. The vertical wind is found to respond strongly to geomagnetic activity at high latitudes, although the response settles around a maximum standard deviation of 50 m/s at an Auroral Electrojet index of 800. The dependence on magnetic local time changes with magnetic latitude, peaking around 4:30 over the polar cap and around 01:30 and 13:30 in the auroral oval. Seasonal effects only become visible at low to middle latitudes, revealing a peak wind variability in both local summer and winter. The vertical wind is not affected by the solar activity level.

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Thermospheric wind measurements obtained from linear non-gravitational accelerations of the Gravity field and steady-state Ocean Circulation Explorer (GOCE) satellite show discrepancies when compared to ground-based measurements. In this paper the cross-wind is derived from both the linear and the angular accelerations using a newly developed iterative algorithm. The two resulting data sets are compared to test the validity of wind derived from angular accelerations and quantify the uncertainty in accelerometer-derived wind data. In general the difference is found to be less than 50 m/s vertically after high-pass filtering, and 100 m/s horizontally. A sensitivity analysis reveals that continuous thrusting is a major source of uncertainty in the torque-derived wind, as are the magnetic properties of the satellite. The energy accommodation coefficient is identified as a particularly promising parameter for improving the consistency of thermospheric cross-wind data sets in the future. The algorithm may be applied to obtain density and cross-wind from other satellite missions that lack accelerometer data, provided the attitude and orbit are known with sufficient accuracy.@en

During the last two decades, accelerometers on board of the CHAMP, GRACE, GOCE and Swarm satellites have provided high-resolution thermosphere density data to improve our knowledge on atmospheric dynamics and coupling processes in the thermosphere-ionosphere region. Most users of the data have focused on relative density variations. Scale differences between datasets and models have been largely neglected or removed using ad hoc scale factors. The origin of these scale differences arises from errors in the aerodynamic modelling, specifically in the modelling of the satellite outer surface geometry and of the gas-surface interactions. Therefore, the first step to remove the scale differences is to enhance the geometry modelling. This work forms the foundation for the future improvement of characterization of satellite aerodynamics and gas-surface interactions models at TU Delft, as well as for extending the use of sideways and angular accelerations in the aerodynamic analysis of accelerations and derivation of thermosphere datasets. Although work to improve geometry and aerodynamic force models by other authors has focused on CHAMP and GRACE, this paper includes the GOCE and Swarm satellites as well. In addition, it uses a density determination algorithm that is valid for arbitrary attitude orientations, enabling a validation making use of attitude manoeuvres. The results show an improvement in the consistency of density data between these four missions, and of data obtained before, during and after attitude manoeuvres of CHAMP and Swarm. The new models result in larger densities, compared to the previously used panel method. The largest average rescaling of density, by switching to the new geometry models is reached for Swarm at 32%, the smallest for GRACE at 5%. For CHAMP and GOCE, mean differences of 11% and 9% are obtained respectively. In this paper, an overview of the improvements and comparisons of data sets is provided together with an introduction to the next research phase on the gas-surface interactions.@en

The Swarm mission flies a constellation of three identical satellites, which carry not only technologically advanced magnetometers but also other important and fundamental instruments, such as GPS receivers and accelerometers. The GPS data are mainly used for precise orbit determination (POD). In addition, a POD approach developed at TU Delft, converts Swarm GPS information into accelerations: the gravitational accelerations are modelled with high fidelity, whereas the non-gravitational accelerations are estimated with a Kalman filter strategy. The resulting GPSderived accelerations for all three Swarm satellites are converted directly into thermosphere neutral density data. The GPS-derived products also supplement the accelerometer-derived data of Swarm C. Furthermore, a combination of the non-gravitational acceleration derived from the GPS receiver and the measurements of the accelerometer for Swarm C resulted in the recently released accelerometer products. The latest improvements of the processing associated to the new high-fidelity geometry and the comparison between the GPS-only and accelerometer-derived data are presented in this work. Moreover, the most recent thermospheric neutral density data show signs of a very deep solar minimum, similar to the one in 2008. These data, together with their comparisons with several thermosphere models, are also included in the presentation. @en

Since 2000, accelerometers on board of the CHAMP, GRACE, GOCE and Swarm satellites have provided highresolution thermosphere density data, improving knowledge on atmospheric dynamics and coupling processes in the thermosphere-ionosphere layer. Most of the research has focused on relative changes in density. Scale differences between datasets and models have been largely neglected or removed using ad hoc scale factors. The origin of these variations arises from errors in the aerodynamic modelling, specifically in the modelling of the satellite outer surface geometry and of the gas-surface interactions. Therefore, in order to further improve density datasets and models that rely on these datasets, and in order to make them align with each other in terms of the absolute scale of the density, it is first required to enhance the geometry modelling. Once accurate geometric models of the satellites are available, it will be possible to enhance the characterization of the gassurface interactions, and to enhance the satellite aerodynamic modelling. This presentation offers an accurate approach for determining aerodynamic forces and torques and improved density data for CHAMP, GRACE, GOCE and Swarm. Through detailed high fidelity 3-D CAD models and Direct Simulation Monte Carlo computations, flow shadowing and complex concave geometries can be investigated. This was not possible with previous closed-form solutions, especially because of the low fidelity geometries and the incapability to introduce shadowing effects. This inaccurate geometry and aerodynamic modelling turned out to have relevant influence on derived densities, particularly for satellites with complex elongated shapes and protruding instruments, beams and antennae. Once the geometry and aerodynamic modelling have been enhanced with the proposed approach, the accelerometer data can be reprocessed leading to 81 higher fidelity density estimates. An overview of achieved improvements and dataset comparisons will be provided together with an introduction to the next gas-surface interactions research phase. @en

Since 2000, accelerometers on board of the CHAMP, GRACE, GOCE and Swarm satellites have provided highresolution thermosphere density data, improving knowledge on atmospheric dynamics and coupling processes in the thermosphere-ionosphere layer. Most of the research has focused on relative changes in density. Scale differences between datasets and models have been largely neglected or removed using ad hoc scale factors. The origin of these variations arises from errors in the aerodynamic modelling, specifically in the modelling of the satellite outer surface geometry and of the gas-surface interactions. Therefore, in order to further improve density datasets and models that rely on these datasets, and in order to make them align with each other in terms of the absolute scale of the density, it is first required to enhance the geometry modelling. Once accurate geometric models of the satellites are available, it will be possible to enhance the characterization of the gassurface interactions, and to enhance the satellite aerodynamic modelling. This presentation offers an accurate approach for determining aerodynamic forces and torques and improved density data for CHAMP, GRACE, GOCE and Swarm. Through detailed high fidelity 3-D CAD models and Direct Simulation Monte Carlo computations, flow shadowing and complex concave geometries can be investigated. This was not possible with previous closed-form solutions, especially because of the low fidelity geometries and the incapability to introduce shadowing effects. This inaccurate geometry and aerodynamic modelling turned out to have relevant influence on derived densities, particularly for satellites with complex elongated shapes and protruding instruments, beams and antennae. Once the geometry and aerodynamic modelling have been enhanced with the proposed approach, the accelerometer data can be reprocessed leading to 81 higher fidelity density estimates. An overview of achieved improvements and dataset comparisons will be provided together with an introduction to the next gas-surface interactions research phase. @en

The accuracy of global atmospheric models used to predict the middle/lower thermosphere characteristics is still an open topic. Uncertainties in the prediction of the gas properties in the thermosphere lead to inaccurate computations of the drag force on space objects (i.e. satellites or debris). Currently the lifetime of space objects and therefore the population of debris in low Earth orbit (LEO) cannot be quantified with a satisfactory degree of accuracy. In this paper, the Global Ionosphere Thermosphere Model (GITM) developed at the University of Michigan has been validated in order to provide detailed simulations of the thermosphere. First, a sensitivity analysis has been performed to investigate the effect of the boundary conditions on the final simulations results. Then, results of simulations have been compared with flight measurements from the CHallenging Minisatellite Payload (CHAMP) and Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites and with existing semi-empirical atmospheric models (IRI and MSIS). The comparison shows a linear dependency of the neutral density values with respect to the solar activity. In particular, GITM shows an over-predicting or under-predicting behaviour under high or low solar activity respectively. The reasons for such behaviour can be attributed to a wrong implementation of the chemical processes or the gas transport properties in the model.@en