Travel-time prediction is a critical component of Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS), offering vital information for tasks such as accident detection, congestion management, and traffic flow optimisation. Accurate predictions are highly dependent on the selection of relevant features. In this study, a two-stage methodology is proposed which consists of two layers of Optimisation Algorithm and one Data-Driven method (OA2DD) to enhance the accuracy and efficiency of travel-time prediction. The first stage involves an offline process where interconnected optimisation algorithms are employed to identify the optimal set of features and determine the most effective machine learning model architecture. In the second stage, the real-time process utilises the optimised model to predict travel times using new data from previously unseen parts of the dataset. The proposed OA2DD method was applied to a case study on the M50 motorway in Dublin. Results show that OA2DD improves the convergence curve and reduces the number of selected features by up to 50 %, leading to a 56 % reduction in computational costs. Furthermore, using the selected features from OA2DD, reduced the prediction error by up to 29 % compared to the full feature set and other feature selection methods, demonstrating the method's effectiveness and robustness.

Transition zones such as level crossing and bridge approaches are critical links in railway networks due to higher degradation rates and maintenance needs. In this context, parametric optimization has been applied to improve the design in transition zones; however, it requires a more computationally efficient tool to support repetitive function evaluations, since the involved vehicle–track dynamic simulations are becoming more expensive to evaluate. For this purpose, a surrogate-based simulation methodology is proposed to search for an optimal combination of parameters relevant to the geometry and elasticity of track structures. Specifically, the presented methodology integrates finite element (FE)-based modeling with surrogate-assisted optimization: (1) the FE model is developed to characterize the dynamic behavior of a level crossing under a moving vehicle; (2) the optimization problem is formulated upon this mechanical model by extending the expensive FE simulations to an adaptive surrogate modeling scheme. This integration facilitates efficient exploration of the track design space (thereby reducing the computational cost), and a reasonable balance can be achieved between solution quality and computational effort. The methodology is applied to a Dutch railway case. Results show that compared to a reference design, the optimized design significantly improves performance indicators relevant to wheel–rail contact forces and energy dissipation in the ballast layer. The solution brings great potential in achieving a more desirable vehicle–track interaction and improving the connecting performance between level crossings and transitions. The methodology is applicable to other railway structures and may also contribute to improvements in current track design practices.

The use of sensitivity analysis is essential in model development for the purposes of calibration, verification, factor prioritization, and mechanism reduction. While most contributions to sensitivity methods focus on the average model response, this paper proposes a new sensitivity method focusing on the extreme response and structural limit states, which combines an extreme-oriented sensitivity method with polynomial chaos expansion. This enables engineers to perform sensitivity analysis near given limit states and visualize the relevance of input factors to different design criteria and corresponding thresholds. The polynomial chaos expansion is used to approximate the model output and alleviate the computational cost in sensitivity analysis, which features sparsity and adaptivity to enhance efficiency. The accuracy and efficiency of the method are verified in a truss structure, which is then illustrated on a dynamic train–track–bridge system. The role of the input factors in response variability is clarified, which differs in terms of the design criteria chosen for sensitivity analysis. The method incorporates multi-scenarios and can thus be useful to support decision-making in design and management of engineering structures.

In traffic networks, some elements are more prone to suffer or to create disruptive situations, and the identification of these elements becomes a challenge due to the large number of possible threats. The following paper presents two new methodologies to identify and rank vulnerable and critical links of traffic networks. These methodologies use the Fisher Information Matrix, and the analysis of eigenvalues and eigenvectors, to systematically rank the links of a network. The identification is done by using traffic variables, such as the demand, the travel time, and the network's flow. For the ranking of the links, disruptions are considered in all the possible locations of the network, and the effects are systematically evaluated. In addition, the evaluation of traffic resilience is included in the process to validate the results. Finally, both methodologies are tested in a real network to infer on the validity of the results.

Different emerging threats highlighted the relevance of recovery and adaptation modelling in the functioning of societal systems. However, as modelling of systems becomes more complex, its effort increases challenging the practicality of the engineering analyses required for efficient recovery and adaptation. In the present work, metamodels are researched as a tool to enable these analyses in traffic networks. One of the main advantages of metamodeling is their synergy with the short decision times required in recovery and adaptation. A sequential global metamodeling technique is proposed and applied to three macroscopic day-to-day user-equilibrium models. Two reference contexts of application are researched: optimal recovery to a perturbation (with response times reduced by 98% with loss of accuracy lower than 1%) and adaptation under uncertainty with perturbation-dependent optimality. Results show that metamodeling-based metaheuristics enable fast resource-intensive engineering analyses of traffic recovery and adaptation, which may change the paradigm of decision-making in this field.

Significant research has been conducted in identifying optimal recovery and adaptation decisions in disruptive scenarios using engineering models. In this context, an aspect that has been target of limited research is that of response times. Modelling is expected to grow progressively more complex as it becomes more accurate. Such complexity increases modelling efforts, and the promise of optimal adaptation and recovery may become hindered. The present work discusses the role of modelling fidelities in adaptation and recovery of systems, and in particular that of using a lower fidelity model that enables zero-time analyses of a system. A framework is proposed for using different fidelities in adaptation and recovery, considering system's decision time requirements. The relevance of this analysis is researched in two traffic networks and results show that multi-fidelity models should be expected to play a key role in increasing the efficiency of optimal adaptation and recovery decisions.

The present work reviews the implementation of adaptive metamodeling for reliability analysis with emphasis in four main types of metamodels: response surfaces, polynomial chaos expansions, support vector machines, and Kriging models. The discussion presented is motivated by the identified spread and little interaction between metamodeling techniques in reliability, which makes it challenging for practitioners to decide which one to consider in a context of implementation. The conceptual problem of reliability analysis and the theoretical description of the four models is presented, and complemented by a comparative discussion of applications with identification of new areas of interest. The different considerations that influence the efficiency of adaptive metamodeling are reviewed, with extension to applicability discussions for the four models researched. Despite all adaptive techniques contributing to achieve significant gains in the amount of effort required for reliability analysis, and with minimal trade-off in accuracy, they should not be expected to perform equally in regard to the dependence on the reliability problem being addressed. Cross application of methodologies, bridging the gap between methodology and application, and ensembles are some of new areas of research interest identified. One of the major critical considerations for adaptive metamodeling, and that has been target of limited research, is the need for comprehensive techniques that allow a blind selection of the most adequate model with relation to the problem in–hand. To conclude, the extensive and comprehensive discussion presented aims to be a first step for the unification of the field of adaptive metamodeling in reliability; so that future implementations do not exclusively follow individual lines of research that progressively become more narrow in scope, but also seek transversal developments in the field of adaptive metamodeling for reliability analysis.

The present work discusses an innovative approach to metamodeling in reliability that uses a field-transversal rationale. Adaptive metamodeling in reliability is characterized by its large spectra of models and techniques with different assumptions. As a result, the reliability engineer is frequently faced with the highly challenging task of selecting an appropriate model or technique with limited a priori knowledge about the performance function that defines the problem of reliability. To tackle this challenge, a complement-basis is proposed for adaptive metamodeling. It consists in using a batch of multiple metamodels or techniques that, accordingly to an activation criterion, are selected to solve the reliability analysis. This activation is set to depend on the model synergy with the problem in-hand. In the present work the leave-one-out loss is applied as evaluator of compatibility, and results show that the absolute loss successfully performs as an activator. A metamodel-independent learning approach and stopping criterion are implemented to study the proposed approach in five representative examples. Results show that the complement-basis allows to increase the efficiency of the reliability analysis through the selection of adequate metamodels, which is indicative of the untapped potential that further transversal research may add to metamodeling in reliability analysis.