Many dryland rivers are terminal systems, with small channels undergoing prominent downstream size reductions before ending on channelless floodplains, in wetlands, or at playa margins. Spaceborne Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) provide potential for assessing subtle topographic and hydrodynamic changes in these low-gradient, low-relief settings, but challenges are posed by limitations in vertical and horizontal accuracy. This study evaluates the use of different spaceborne DEMs for topographic characterisation and flood flow modelling of the low-gradient (<0.0006 m m⁻¹) Río Colorado terminal system, Bolivia. A comparison between DEM and field dGPS elevation data (1290 measurement points) reveals that the TanDEM-X DEM 12 m (TDX-12 m) has a RMSE of 0.47 m, far less than those of other frequently used spaceborne DEMs such as ALOS RTC (4.58 m) and SRTM (6.02 m). For hydrodynamic modelling, TDX-12 m data were smoothed (adaptive filter and feature-preserving DEM smoothing) and upscaled. The smoothed TDX-12 m data were mosaiced with a dGPS data-derived river path, surveyed along a reach (mean width <30 m) with a prominent downstream size decrease. The methods enabled effective de-noising of the TDX-12 m data (RMSE 0.29 m) and resulted in a high linear regression correlation coefficient (0.75). HEC-RAS 2D modelling reveals that in the selected reach, overbank flooding starts in the downstream part when discharge is <18 m³/s, with flow initially spreading through crevasse channels and levee topographic lows. As discharge increases, flow spreads farther across the floodplain, ultimately forming connected floodplain flow in distal topographic lows. Satellite imagery and a derived water index indicate the same floodplain flow patterns as the modelling (critical success index 0.77). Wider use of DEMs based on TDX-12 m data for topographic characterization and flood flow modelling along relatively small, low-gradient terminal dryland rivers will result in many scientific and applied benefits.

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Operational forest fire danger rating systems rely on the recent evolution of meteorological variables to estimate dead fuel condition. Further combining the latter with meteorological and environmental variables, they predict fire occurrence and spread. In this study we retrieved live fuel condition from MODIS multispectral measurements in the near infrared and shortwave infrared. Next, we combined these retrievals with an extensive dataset on actual forest fires in Campania (13,595 km²), Italy, to determine how live fuel condition affects the probability distribution functions of fire characteristics. Accordingly, the specific objective of this study was to develop and evaluate a new approach to estimate the probability distribution functions of fire burned area, duration and rate of spread as a function of the Perpendicular Moisture Index (PMI), whose value decreases with decreasing live fuel moisture content (LFMC). To this purpose, available fire data was intersected with MODIS 8-day composited reflectance data so to associate each fire event with the corresponding pre-fire PMI observation. Fires were then grouped in ten decile bins of PMI, and the conditional probability distribution functions of burned area, fire duration and rate of spread were determined in each bin. Distributions of burned area and rate of spread vary across PMI decile bins, while no significant difference was observed for fire duration. Further testing this result with a likelihood ratio test confirmed that PMI is a covariate of burned area and rate of spread, but not of fire duration. We defined an extreme event as a fire whose burned area (respectively rate of spread) exceeds the 95th percentile of the frequency distribution of all observed fire events. The probability distribution functions in the ten decile bins of PMI were combined to obtain a conditional probability distribution function, which was then used to predict the probability of extreme fires, as defined. It was found that the probability of extreme events steadily increases with decreasing PMI. Overall, at the end of the dry season the probability of extreme events is about the double than at the beginning. These results may be used to produce frequently (e.g. daily) updated maps of the probability of extreme events given a PMI map retrieved from e.g. MODIS reflectance data.

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Forest fires are a major source of ecosystem disturbance. Vegetation reacts to meteorological factors contributing to fire danger by reducing stomatal conductance, thus leading to an increase of canopy temperature. The latter can be detected by remote sensing measurements in the thermal infrared as a deviation of observed land surface temperature (LST) from climatological values, that is as an LST anomaly. A relationship is thus expected between LST anomalies and forest fires burned area and duration. These two characteristics are indeed controlled by a large variety of both static and dynamic factors related to topography, land cover, climate, weather (including those affecting LST) and anthropic activity. To investigate the predicting capability of remote sensing measurements, rather than constructing a comprehensive model, it would be relevant to determine whether anomalies of LST affect the probability distributions of burned area and fire duration. This research approached the outlined knowledge gap through the analysis of a dataset of forest fires in Campania (Italy) covering years 2003-2011 against estimates of LST anomaly. An LST climatology was first computed from time series of daily Aqua-MODIS LST data (product MYD11A1, collection 6) over the longest available sequence of complete annual datasets (2003-2017), through the Harmonic Analysis of Time Series (HANTS) algorithm. HANTS was also used to create individual annual models of LST data, to minimize the effect of varying observation geometry and cloud contamination on LST estimates while retaining its seasonal variation. LST anomalies where thus quantified as the difference between LST annual models and LST climatology. Fire data were intersected with LST anomaly maps to associate each fire with the LST anomaly value observed at its position on the day previous to the event. Further to this step, the closest probability distribution function describing burned area and fire duration were identified against a selection of parametric models through the maximization of the Anderson-Darling goodness-of-fit. Parameters of the identified distributions conditional to LST anomaly where then determined along their confidence intervals. Results show that in the study area log-transformed burned area is described by a normal distribution, whereas log-transformed fire duration is closer to a generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution. The parameters of these distributions conditional to LST anomaly show clear trends with increasing LST anomaly; significance of this observation was verified through a likelihood ratio test. This confirmed that LST anomaly is a covariate of both burned area and fire duration. As a consequence, it was observed that conditional probabilities of extreme events appear to increase with increasing positive deviations of LST from its climatology values. This confirms the stated hypothesis that LST anomalies affect forest fires burned area and duration and highlights the informative content of time series of LST with respect to fire danger.@en

In some internally-draining dryland basins, ephemeral river systems terminate at the margins of playas. Extreme floods can exert significant geomorphological impacts on the lower reaches of these river systems and the playas, including causing changes to flood extent, channel-floodplain morphology, and sediment dispersal. However, the characterization of these impacts using remote sensing approaches has been challenging owing to variable vegetation and cloud cover, as well as the commonly limited spatial and temporal resolution of data. Here, we use Sentinel-2 Multispectral Instrument (MSI) data to investigate the flood extent, flood patterns and channel-floodplain morphodynamics resulting from an extreme flood near the non-vegetated terminus of the Río Colorado, located at the margins of the world's largest playa (Salar de Uyuni, Bolivia). Daily maximum precipitation frequency analysis based on a 42-year record of daily precipitation data (1976 through 2017) indicates that an approximately 40-year precipitation event (40.7 mm) occurred on 6 January 2017, and this was associated with an extreme flood. Sentinel-2 data acquired after this extreme flood were used to separate water bodies and land, first by using modified normalized difference water index (MNDWI), and then by subsequently applying independent component analysis (ICA) on the land section of the combined pre- and post-flood images to extract flooding areas. The area around the Río Colorado terminus system was classified into three categories: water bodies, wet land, and dry land. The results are in agreement with visual assessment, with an overall accuracy of 96% and Kappa of 0.9 for water-land classification and an overall accuracy of 83% and Kappa of 0.65 for dry land-wet land classification. The flood extent mapping revealed preferential overbank flow paths on the floodplain, which were closely related to geomorphological changes. Changes included the formation and enlargement of crevasse splays, channel avulsion, and the development of erosion cells (floodplain scour-transport-fill features). These changes were visualized by Sentinel-2 images along with WorldView satellite images. In particular, flooding enlarged existing crevasse splays and formed new ones, while channel avulsion occurred near the river's terminus. Greater overbank flow on the floodplain led to rapid erosion cell development, with changes to channelized sections occurring as a result of adjustments in flow sources and intensity combined with the lack of vegetation on the fine-grained (predominantly silt, clay) sediments. This study has demonstrated how ICA can be implemented on Sentinel-2 imagery to characterize the impact of extreme floods on the lower Río Colorado, and the method has potential application in similar contexts in many other drylands.

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Satellite observations of the terrestrial biosphere cover a period of time sufficiently extended to allow the calculation of a reliable climatology. The latter is particularly relevant for studies of vegetation response to climate variability. Observations from space of the land surface are hampered by clouds at shorter wavelength and affected by water in the atmosphere in the microwave range. Both polar orbiting and geostationary satellites have a revisit frequency high enough to allow for some redundancy relative to the processes being observed, so that time series where a fraction of observations are removed and the resulting gaps filled are still very useful to monitor land surface processes. Two examples illustrate this concept in two different spectral regions: Thermal Infrared (TIR) and observations of land surface temperature to study the thermal behavior of the land surface in response to weather and climate and 37 GHz observations of the polarization difference in brightness temperature to retrieve the fractional abundance of watersaturated soil. Three applications of time series of land surface temperature are presented: (a) monitoring of spectral thermal admittance of the land surface; (b) estimation and mapping of air temperature and (c) monitoring of thermal load to assess the risk of forest fires. Two methods were applied to identify and remove anomalous observations (outliers) and to fill the resulting gaps: Harmonic ANalysis of Time Series (HANTS) and theMultichannel Singular Spectrum Analysis (M-SSA). The HANTS algorithm has been widely used to reconstruct time series of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Leaf Area Index (LAI), Land Surface Temperature (LST) as well as the polarization difference brightness temperature (PDBT) during the past 20 years to remove random noise or eliminate cloud/snow contamination. The M-SSA, an advanced methodology for time series analysis, was utilized to reconstruct gap-free LST time series using both the spatial and the temporal information content in the data set.

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