Crevasse splays generate subtle local relief and contribute to fluvial basin sedimentary filling but controls on splay development along dryland rivers remain poorly understood owing to limited field, laboratory, and numerical modelling studies. Based on previously-acquired field data and new remote sensing observations of splay morphology and sedimentology (e.g. slope, width, length, grain size) and flooding characteristics (e.g. discharge, water depth and extent) near the terminus of the non-vegetated, ephemeral Río Colorado on the southeastern margin of Salar de Uyuni, Bolivia, we undertake process-based modelling using Delft3D to isolate the role of hydrological controls on crevasse splay morphodynamics. Holding the potential sediment supply constant, we focus on the role of discharge (outflow from trunk channel to crevasse channel during rising stage), floodplain water levels, and backflow (reflux to the trunk channel during falling stage). Using nine different model runs, each with 10 simulated flood cycles, we show that the processes associated with these hydrological controls result in various outcomes, from short crevasse splay channels that may bifurcate and develop depositional bars to longer splays with one primary channel that mainly transfers sediment across the floodplain. Results reveal that increases in flood discharge lead to more rapid splay sedimentation and stabilization of a single crevasse channel. Increases in floodplain water level lead to shorter but wider splays and facilitate the formation of multiple stable crevasse channels. High floodplain water levels probably restrict splay length owing to deceleration of outflow as floodplain water is encountered, but separate crevasse channels may form downstream as backflow breaches the trunk channel levee during falling stage. These findings support and extend previous observations from the Río Colorado and other dryland rivers worldwide. Future modelling studies that consider a wider range of hydrological, sedimentological, and floodplain topographic conditions will help develop more comprehensive numerical models of splay development. A combination of insights from field, laboratory experimentation, remote sensing and modelling will improve knowledge of the cascades of channel-floodplain dynamics that characterise many dryland endorheic basins.

Many dryland rivers are terminal systems, with small channels undergoing prominent downstream size reductions before ending on channelless floodplains, in wetlands, or at playa margins. Spaceborne Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) provide potential for assessing subtle topographic and hydrodynamic changes in these low-gradient, low-relief settings, but challenges are posed by limitations in vertical and horizontal accuracy. This study evaluates the use of different spaceborne DEMs for topographic characterisation and flood flow modelling of the low-gradient (<0.0006 m m⁻¹) Río Colorado terminal system, Bolivia. A comparison between DEM and field dGPS elevation data (1290 measurement points) reveals that the TanDEM-X DEM 12 m (TDX-12 m) has a RMSE of 0.47 m, far less than those of other frequently used spaceborne DEMs such as ALOS RTC (4.58 m) and SRTM (6.02 m). For hydrodynamic modelling, TDX-12 m data were smoothed (adaptive filter and feature-preserving DEM smoothing) and upscaled. The smoothed TDX-12 m data were mosaiced with a dGPS data-derived river path, surveyed along a reach (mean width <30 m) with a prominent downstream size decrease. The methods enabled effective de-noising of the TDX-12 m data (RMSE 0.29 m) and resulted in a high linear regression correlation coefficient (0.75). HEC-RAS 2D modelling reveals that in the selected reach, overbank flooding starts in the downstream part when discharge is <18 m³/s, with flow initially spreading through crevasse channels and levee topographic lows. As discharge increases, flow spreads farther across the floodplain, ultimately forming connected floodplain flow in distal topographic lows. Satellite imagery and a derived water index indicate the same floodplain flow patterns as the modelling (critical success index 0.77). Wider use of DEMs based on TDX-12 m data for topographic characterization and flood flow modelling along relatively small, low-gradient terminal dryland rivers will result in many scientific and applied benefits.

In some internally-draining dryland basins, ephemeral river systems terminate at the margins of playas. Extreme floods can exert significant geomorphological impacts on the lower reaches of these river systems and the playas, including causing changes to flood extent, channel-floodplain morphology, and sediment dispersal. However, the characterization of these impacts using remote sensing approaches has been challenging owing to variable vegetation and cloud cover, as well as the commonly limited spatial and temporal resolution of data. Here, we use Sentinel-2 Multispectral Instrument (MSI) data to investigate the flood extent, flood patterns and channel-floodplain morphodynamics resulting from an extreme flood near the non-vegetated terminus of the Río Colorado, located at the margins of the world's largest playa (Salar de Uyuni, Bolivia). Daily maximum precipitation frequency analysis based on a 42-year record of daily precipitation data (1976 through 2017) indicates that an approximately 40-year precipitation event (40.7 mm) occurred on 6 January 2017, and this was associated with an extreme flood. Sentinel-2 data acquired after this extreme flood were used to separate water bodies and land, first by using modified normalized difference water index (MNDWI), and then by subsequently applying independent component analysis (ICA) on the land section of the combined pre- and post-flood images to extract flooding areas. The area around the Río Colorado terminus system was classified into three categories: water bodies, wet land, and dry land. The results are in agreement with visual assessment, with an overall accuracy of 96% and Kappa of 0.9 for water-land classification and an overall accuracy of 83% and Kappa of 0.65 for dry land-wet land classification. The flood extent mapping revealed preferential overbank flow paths on the floodplain, which were closely related to geomorphological changes. Changes included the formation and enlargement of crevasse splays, channel avulsion, and the development of erosion cells (floodplain scour-transport-fill features). These changes were visualized by Sentinel-2 images along with WorldView satellite images. In particular, flooding enlarged existing crevasse splays and formed new ones, while channel avulsion occurred near the river's terminus. Greater overbank flow on the floodplain led to rapid erosion cell development, with changes to channelized sections occurring as a result of adjustments in flow sources and intensity combined with the lack of vegetation on the fine-grained (predominantly silt, clay) sediments. This study has demonstrated how ICA can be implemented on Sentinel-2 imagery to characterize the impact of extreme floods on the lower Río Colorado, and the method has potential application in similar contexts in many other drylands.