This paper provides an empirical probabilistic model for estimating the downtime of lifelines following earthquakes. Generally, the downtime of infrastructure varies according to several factors, including the characteristics of the exposed structure, the earthquake intensity, and the amount of available human resources. Having so many variables makes the process of estimating the downtime even harder. Therefore, it is necessary to have a simple and practical model to estimate the downtime of infrastructure systems. To do so, a large database has been collected from literature, which includes damage data for many earthquakes that took place in the last century. The database has been used to create restoration curves for four types of lifelines: Water distribution network, Gas network, Power system, and Telecommunication network. Different restoration curves have been developed based on several criteria, such as the earthquake magnitude, development level of the affected country, and countries with enough data. The restoration curves have been presented in terms of probability of recovery and time; the longer is the time after the disaster, the higher is the probability of the infrastructure to recover its functions.

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Cyber-security is of paramount importance: there is an industry built around it, with people spending their lives securing systems, and other people spending theirs trying to get into those very same systems. It is a never-ending process that requires both parties to always think ahead of the opponent and, as time passes, the stakes get higher and higher. Cyber-attacks have been like “kill switches” - partially or completely hindering its function and sending people into chaos and pose risks. This chapter highlights the ever-growing importance of cyber-security due to the ubiquity of Internet-connected devices. It discusses cyber threats and risks of typical critical networks, focusing on the concept of cyber resilience. Special attention has been given to critical infrastructure, such as power networks and nuclear plants. Several methods to mitigate or prevent the consequences of cyberattacks have been introduced (i.e. OODA loop). As a case study, the famous 2015 Ukraine power grid cyber-attack was considered, which shows how attacks are actually planned many months in advance, making it hard - if not impossible - to contain damage.

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Last decades have been characterized by an increasing number of disasters all over the world. Therefore, the concept of community resilience has attracted the attention of the scientists who started to explore and assess the ability of communities to recover after undesirable events. In this work, a method for assessing the earthquake community resilience based on the PEOPLES framework is presented. PEOPLES is a framework that defines community resilience using seven dimensions. Each of the dimensions is defined through a set of indicators to describe the different aspects of resilience. The exact evaluation of the indicators is usually not possible due to the lack of deterministic data related to the damaged system after the disaster. The proposed method exploits a knowledge-based fuzzy modelling to allow the quantitative evaluation of the PEOPLES indicators taking into account uncertainties. The output of the implemented fuzzy method is a resilience index.@en

The capacity of a community to react and resist to an emergency situation is strictly related to the proper functioning of its own infrastructure systems. This paper proposes a simulation oriented approach to evaluate the resilience of large scale water distribution networks. The case study used in this research is the water network of a large scale virtual city. The water network is modeled using the software EPANET 2.0 with the help of an integrated Matlab toolbox. The network consists of 16000 junctions and 19000 water pipes buried under the road network of the city. A series of earthquake scenarios is applied to the water network and the damage induced by the earthquakes has been determined using fragility function. The failure of the system occurs when the water flow and the water pressure go below a certain threshold. The resilience of the network is then evaluated using two indices: (1) the number of users without water, (2) the loss of total water supply.@en

This paper provides a novel method to quantitatively assess the resilience of communities at various scales. The proposed method is based on the PEOPLES framework and it takes an indicator-based approach as an engine for its algorithm. PEOPLES is a framework for identifying the different resilience aspects of a community and for providing new ways through which the decision makers can take actions. The framework comprises seven dimensions, each of which is the collection of more specific components and indicators. Each indicator is accompanied with a measure allowing the analytical computation of the indicator's performance. The measures are presented in the form of continuous functions whose parameters can be analytically obtained. The output of the methodology is a performance function for each indicator and a resilience index for the whole community. A case study illustrating the application of the methodology is also provided in the paper.

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The 14th of November 2016 Kaikōura Earthquake sequence has highly affected the transport infrastructure in New Zealand. From the perspective of life-safety, the overall bridge performance was satisfactory; however, based on the observed undesirable sub-system performance of the damaged bridges, further investigation into possible improvements of the current design philosophy was warranted. This paper describes the structural performance of the most severely damaged bridges during the Kaikōura Earthquake. The study is based on observations made during site inspections, on subsequent computational analyses performed and on a functionality database collected during the period following the event. The paper also introduces resilience indicators as a tool to predict the lifecycle performance and functionality of bridges. Finally, conclusions on the resilience and functionality of the bridges in the aftermath of the earthquake are raised, highlighting the main performance issues and suggesting strategies and technologies to enhance their seismic resilience during future events.@en

This paper presents a quantitative method to assess the resilience and the resilience-based risk at the country level. The approach is inspired by the classical risk analysis, in which risk is a function of vulnerability, hazard, and exposure. In the proposed analysis, resilience-based risk is a function of resilience, hazard, and exposure. In the new formula, the resilience parameter is evaluated using the data provided by the Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA). HFA scores and ranks countries based on a number of equally weighted indicators. To use those indicators in the resilience assessment, the contribution of each indicator toward resilience must be determined. To do that, three methods to weight and combine the different HFA indicators are proposed. The first two methods are based on the dependence tree analysis (DTA), while the third method is based on a geometrical combination of the indicators using spider plots. The proposed methodology has been applied to a case study composed of 37 countries for which both the resilience (R) and the resilience-based risk (RBR) indexes have been determined.

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The efficient movement of goods is crucial to the economic growth of communities. This makes the existence of seaports essential for the marine transportation system. Due to their natural location, ports are continuously threatened by natural hazards such as wind action, which necessitates a continuous monitoring and assessment for their performance. The work presented here aims at assessing the resilience of ports against natural disasters. This is done by identifying the performance and the recovery rate of such infrastructure during the period following the event. The research commenced with gathering information about the port’s main components that are influenced by natural hazards. The collected data has been compiled in the form of indicators, which have been filtered and grouped under four dimensions in the proposed “PORT framework”. Each of the indicator has been allocated a measure to enable its quantitative evaluation. The aggregation of the indicators’ values allows identifying the port resilience.

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Modeling the performance of critical infrastructures and their interdependencies is an important task in the resilience assessment. In this paper, restoration curves for four critical lifelines (power, water, gas, telecommunication, and transportation) have been developed using a probabilistic approach. To do that, a large database on infrastructure downtime has been collected for most of the earthquakes that occurred in the past century. The restoration curves have been grouped based on the earthquake magnitude and the level of development of the country in which the earthquake occurred. The curves are presented in terms of probability of recovery and time; the longer is the time after the disaster, the higher is the probability of the infrastructure to recover its functions.@en

To improve the resilience of critical infrastructure systems, their intrinsic properties need to be understood and their resilience state needs to be identified. In the literature, several methods to evaluate networks’ reliability and resilience can be found. However, the applicability of these methods is usually restricted to small-size networks. In this paper, the transportation network of a large-scale virtual city is considered as a case study. A random removal strategy of the links (roads) is applied to simulate the network’s failure. The network reliability is then calculated using the Destruction Spectrum (D-spectrum) method and a Monte Carlo approach has been developed to generate failure permutations that are necessary for the evaluation of the D-spectrum. In addition, the Birnbaum Importance Measure (BIM) has been adopted in this study to determine the importance of the network’s components. The methodology adopted in this study can be also extended to all network-based systems. The paper also introduces resilience indicators as a soft tool to predict the performance and the serviceability of the transportation networks.

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This work aims at establishing laboratory requirements and testing conditions in order to understand the physical and emotional stability of people during a ground shaking. Several individuals with different human characteristics (gender, age, height, etc.) are considered in the test. Two different laboratory setups are presented. A position device (Kinect) and video targetless tracking algorithm has been used to collect the human body position during the shaking. A two and a three dimensional shaking tables are used to generate artificial earthquakes with different frequency bands. In addition, a well detailed virtual reality setting is applied to the testing site in order to illustrate the real environment. During the experiment, a special attention has been given to the factor of “surprise”, which is necessary to ensure a natural reaction of the individuals. The result of the experiment proved common behaviors among the individual samples during the shaking. This work is considered a first step towards a large test campaign, which is necessary to obtain comprehensive statistics on this topic.

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Recent social developments and economic transformation have changed the engineering design approach from building design level towards community design level (city, region, country). The latter approach involves modeling of interconnections between different systems (buildings, transportation, water network, etc.) rather than designing the buildings individually. Thus, new analysis tools are expected to be developed to simulate the complex response of a community subsequently to disasters. The need of such rational tools is the object of this research work. Two different numerical approaches to simulate the response of a largescale built environment after a seismic scenario are explored by developing multipurpose numerical codes. A district of a virtual city is considered as a case study and the level of damage for built environment is estimated. This work could be the first step for further urban loss analysis, e.g. through agent-based models that could be updated online with the proposed simulation.@en

The primary objective of the “performance-based seismic design” is to provide stipulated seismic performances for building structures. However, a certain degree of design freedom is needed for matching a specific seismic response. This design freedom is not obtainable by the conventional lateral resisting systems because their stiffness and strength are coupled. Here, we put emphasis on the role of the unconventional lateral resisting systems in adding more flexibility to the design. In this paper, we seek to explore the seismic design of moment-resisting frame structures equipped with an innovative hysteretic device, known as “crescent-shaped brace.” One conspicuous feature of this device is its distinctive geometrical configuration, which is responsible for the enhanced nonlinear force-displacement behavior exhibited by the device. A new performance-based approach for the seismic design of the crescent-shaped brace is proposed. The performance of the device is evaluated, and its application in multistory shear-type structures is investigated. Two case studies were established to illustrate the design methodology. The first is a new two-story RC structure, and the second is an existing three-story RC structure. Nonlinear time history and pushover analyses are performed to evaluate the behavior of the controlled structures. The analyses show that for each of the two case studies, the acceleration–displacement capacity spectrum conforms to the performance objectives curve. This finding confirms the validity of the proposed design approach and the effectiveness of the new hysteretic device in resisting lateral forces.@en

This paper introduces a new methodology to evaluate the resilience of communities. The methodology is based on the PEOPLES framework and it makes use of resilience indicators to evaluate community resilience. The methodology requires data for the indicators as input and returns a resilience function as an output. The resilience function shows the serviceability of the community for a given period of time following the disaster. This methodology has been implemented in the form of two software tools. The first one is a web app that is accessible at http://www.resiltronics.org/PEOPLES/login.php or http://borispio.ddns.net/PEOPLES/login.php while the other is a desktop software. The output quality provided by the tools is not compromised with their usage simplicity. Both softwares are meant to assist the user to use the introduced resilience framework by offering a user-friendly interface. As a case study, the resilience of the city of San Francisco city has been evaluated using both tools.

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This paper presents a new methodology to predict the potential damage and physical impacts of an earthquake on the built environment. A new methodology to the urbanized systems and large-scale simulations within a seismic scenario are explored, by evaluating multipurpose codes for numerical simulation. A 3-D building shape of a standard virtual city is developed for evaluating the seismic effects at increasing intensities. Once the buildings are integrated into the city, parallel simulations are applied to compute the global behavior of buildings after a disruptive scenario. Monte Carlo Simulations (MCS) are applied to take into account the epistemic uncertainties associated with geometry and mechanical properties within the range of observations. For each set of buildings' data, the nonlinear dynamic analysis is performed through SAP2000 Application Programming Interface (API) in order to assess the dynamic response of the buildings in an organized and automatic fashion. Accordingly, the city is mapped into different zones representative to the possibility of having different levels of damage (complete, extensive, moderate, and slight). This tool supports decision-makers to explore how their community will respond to a disruptive event, to develop different strategies for monitoring and control the emergency in urbanized areas.@en

Community resilience is becoming a growing concern for authorities and decision makers. This paper introduces two indicator-based methods to evaluate the resilience of communities based on the PEOPLES framework. PEOPLES is a multi-layered framework that defines community resilience using seven dimensions. Each of the dimensions is described through a set of resilience indicators collected from literature and they are linked to a measure allowing the analytical computation of the indicator’s performance. The first method proposed in this paper requires data on previous disasters as an input and returns as output a performance function for each indicator and a performance function for the whole community. The second method exploits a knowledge-based fuzzy modeling for its implementation. This method allows a quantitative evaluation of the PEOPLES indicators using descriptive knowledge rather than deterministic data including the uncertainty involved in the analysis. The output of the fuzzy-based method is a resilience index for each indicator as well as a resilience index for the community. The paper also introduces an open source online tool in which the first method is implemented. A case study illustrating the application of the first method and the usage of the tool is also provided in the paper.

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The loss of functionality of road networks during the past Canterbury (2010-2011) and Kaikōura (2016) earthquakes has questioned New Zealand's established seismic resilience. In both events, overall bridge performance was satisfactory from a life-safety perspective. However, based on the observed undesirable sub-system performance of the damaged bridges and on the direct and indirect costs due to downtime and non-structural damage, an investigation into possible improvements of the current design philosophy was warranted. Resilience can be considered as a performance indicator that quantifies the residual functionality along with the effort in responding to the seismic event. Resilience is not being considered in the seismic codes, as traditionally their main objective has been to prevent collapse and ensure life-safety. Performance-based design, as a supplement to code objectives, does not include explicit verification of the expected functionality of the structure after the earthquake. On the other hand, resilience-based design appears as a holistic design process, which identifies and mitigates earthquake-induced risks to enable rapid recovery in the aftermath of major earthquakes. This paper presents an overview of the recovery process of the Inland Route in the aftermath of the Kaikōura earthquake. The most severely damaged bridges in the route are introduced as case studies, and the main performance and functionality issues are highlighted. Based on this, a framework to incorporate resilience concepts and measures, as key design criteria and indicators, into the structural design process is also introduced and conceptually exemplified. Applying the proposed framework during the design phase will allow the estimation of final recovery times and preliminary recovery costs of the bridge after an earthquake.@en

This research presents a quantitative method to assess resilience at the state level. The approach introduced in this work is an evolution of the risk assessment concept. Risk is mainly a function of vulnerability, hazard, and exposure; on the other hand, resilience focuses more on the internal characteristics of a system rather than its vulnerability. To tackle this difference, a new formulation has been introduced for the evaluation of resilience. In this formulation, resilience is a function of hazard, exposure, and intrinsic resilience. Generally, intrinsic resilience deals with the internal characteristics of a system, and it differs from the traditional resilience index that takes into account external factors in its assessment, such as the disaster intensity and the level of exposure. The paper also provides a method to compute the intrinsic resilience of countries. This method is based on the data provided by Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA), which is a work developed by the United Nations (UN). HFA evaluates the inherent resilience of countries based on a number of equally weighted indicators. However, further analysis has shown that the contribution made by each of those indicators toward the intrinsic resilience is different. This discrepancy has necessitated weighting the indicators based on their individual contribution towards the intrinsic resilience. To do that, we introduce the Dependence Tree Analysis (DTA). DTA is a method that determines the correlation between a component and its sub-components (i.e., between intrinsic resilience and its indicators), enabling us to orderly allocate new weights to the indicators to obtain a more representative output for the intrinsic resilience. Finally, a case study composed of 37 states has been conducted in order to illustrate the methodology in all details. Both intrinsic resilience and resilience indexes for each of the states were assessed. This was followed by a comparative analysis in order to test the applicability of the methodology, and the results were in line with the predictions.

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This paper presents a new approach to predict the potential damage and physical impacts of an earthquake on the built environment. A new methodology for large-scale simulations within a seismic scenario are explored by evaluating multipurpose codes. In particular, a 3-D model of a virtual city is developed for evaluating the seismic effects at increasing intensities. Four different building sectors that provide essential functions to a community, including housing, education, business, and public services are considered. Once the buildings are integrated into the city, parallel simulations are applied to compute the system functionality following a disruptive scenario. Trilinear elastoplastic backbone curve representative of the global shear behavior of each building is estimated considering the dominant modal shapes and building irregularities. Monte Carlo Simulations (MCS) are applied to take into account the epistemic uncertainties associated with geometry and mechanical properties within the range of observations. The nonlinear dynamic analyses are performed through SAP2000 Application Programming Interface (API) in order to assess the dynamic response of the buildings in an organized and automatic fashion. Accordingly, the city is mapped into different zones representative to the possibility of having different levels of damage (complete, extensive, moderate, and slight). This methodology supports decision-makers to explore the community response to a disruptive events, to develop monitoring and control strategies in urbanized areas, to plan better resilience-building and evacuation strategies.

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In recent years, the concept of resilience has been introduced to the field of engineering as it relates to disaster mitigation and management. However, the built environment is only one element that supports community functionality. Maintaining community functionality during and after a disaster, defined as resilience, is influenced by multiple components. This report summarizes the research activities of the first two years of an ongoing collaboration between the Politecnico di Torino and the University of California, Berkeley, in the field of disaster resilience. Chapter 1 focuses on the economic dimension of disaster resilience with an application to the San Francisco Bay Area; Chapter 2 analyzes the option of using base-isolation systems to improve the resilience of hospitals and school buildings; Chapter 3 investigates the possibility to adopt discrete event simulation models and a meta-model to measure the resilience of the emergency department of a hospital; Chapter 4 applies the meta-model developed in Chapter 3 to the hospital network in the San Francisco Bay Area, showing the potential of the model for design purposes Chapter 5 uses a questionnaire combined with factorial analysis to evaluate the resilience of a hospital; Chapter 6 applies the concept of agent-based models to analyze the performance of socio-technical networks during an emergency. Two applications are shown: a museum and a train station; Chapter 7 defines restoration fragility functions as tools to measure uncertainties in the restoration process; and Chapter 8 focuses on modeling infrastructure interdependencies using temporal networks at different spatial scales. @en