The world’s coasts and deltas are progressively threatened by climate change and human activities. The degree at which coastlines can adapt to these changes strongly depends on the sediment availability. The availability of muddy sediments is however poorly known. This study aims at developing a mud budget for the world’s largest system of uninterrupted tidal flats: the Wadden Sea. The resulting mud budget is nearly closed: ~ 12 million ton/year enters the system on its western end, ~ 1.5 million ton/year is added by local rivers, while ~ 12 million ton annually deposits or is extracted by anthropogenic activities. A mud deficit already exists in the downdrift areas, which will only become more pronounced with increased sea level rise rates. Mud is thus a finite resource similar to sand, and should be treated as such in sediment management strategies. Resolving future challenges will therefore require a cross-border perspective on sediment management.@en

The Frisian islands (Southern North Sea) have extensive island tails, i.e. the entire downdrift side of an island consisting of salt marshes, dunes, beaches and beach plains, and green beaches. Currently, large parts of these tails are ageing and losing dynamics, partly due to human influence. This may mean a loss of young stages on the long term, and current management is not enough to counteract this. To aid the development of new interventions aiming at (re)introducing natural dynamics, a conceptual model of island-tail development under natural and disturbed conditions was developed, based on existing data, field visits and literature. The development of an island tail follows the general pattern of biogeomorphic succession. The first phase consists of a bare beach plain. In the second phase, embryonic dunes form. In the third phase, green beaches, dunes and salt marshes form, including drainage by creeks and washovers. In the fourth phase, vegetation succession continues and the morphology stabilises. Human interference (such as sand dikes and embankments) reduces natural dynamics and increases succession speed, leading to a reduction in the diversity in landforms and vegetation types. Both for natural and human-influenced island tails, succession is the dominant process and large-scale rejuvenation only occurs spontaneously when large-scale processes cause erosion or sedimentation. Island tails cannot be kept permanently in a young successional stage by reintroducing natural dynamics through management interventions, as biogeomorphic succession is dominant. However, such interventions may result in local and temporal rejuvenation when tailored to the specific situation.

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Concerned decision makers increasingly pose questions as to whether current management practices are able to cope with climate change and increased climate variability. This signifies a shift in the framing of climate change from asking what its potential impacts are to asking whether it induces policy failure and unacceptable change. In this paper, we explore the background, feasibility, and consequences of this new framing. We focus on the specific situation in which a social-political threshold of concern is likely to be exceeded as a result of climate change, requiring consideration of alternative strategies. Action is imperative when such a situation is conceivable, and at this point climate change becomes particularly relevant to decision makers. We call this situation an “adaptation turning point.” The assessment of adaptation turning points converts uncertainty surrounding the extent of a climate impact into a time range over which it is likely that specific thresholds will be exceeded. This can then be used to take adaptive action. Despite the difficulty in identifying adaptation turning points and the relative newness of the approach, experience so far suggests that the assessment generates a meaningful dialogue between stakeholders and scientists. Discussion revolves around the amount of change that is acceptable; how likely it is that unacceptable, or more favorable, conditions will be reached; and the adaptation pathways that need to be considered under these circumstances. Defining and renegotiating policy objectives under climate change are important topics in the governance of adaptation.@en