Identifying the pattern of delta morphological change under decreasing sediment flux due to dam construction is essential for sustainable management in such densely populated coastal areas. In this study, we investigated the morphological processes of the Yangtze mouth bar and prodelta based on bathymetric data on a decadal-interannual scale (1958, 1978, 1997, 2002, 2007, 2010, 2013 and 2015). We found that strong accretion (205.1 Mm³ yr⁻¹) occurred during 1958–1978, when a high sediment load (465 Mt yr⁻¹) was supplied by the Yangtze. Afterwards, the net accumulation rate decreased to 31.9 Mm³ yr⁻¹ in 1978–1997 and 114.6 Mm³ yr⁻¹ in 1997–2002 as a result of riverine sediment loads decreasing to 390 Mt yr⁻¹ and 314 Mt yr⁻¹, respectively. Surprisingly, the net accumulation rate increased to 130.8 Mm³ yr⁻¹ in 2002–2007, though the sediment load sharply decreased to 177 Mt yr⁻¹. This anomaly was attributed to the construction of training walls within the mouth bar area, which induced significant accretion in groyne-sheltered areas and nearby regions. Along with a further decrease in sediment load, the entire study area converted to net erosion of −200.4 Mm³ yr⁻¹ in 2007–2010 and −152.2 Mm³ yr⁻¹ in 2010–2013. Stronger erosion in the former period was partly caused by intensive dredging activities in the mouth bar area. The critical sediment discharge for the Yangtze mouth bar and prodelta to retain net accretion was estimated to be ca. 218 Mt yr⁻¹. If deducting the impacts of estuarine engineering projects on accretion/erosion during 1997–2010, the critical sediment discharge is adjusted to ca. 234 Mt yr⁻¹. In combination with previously reported accretion-erosion conversion elsewhere in the Yangtze Delta, we inferred that most portion of the subaqueous delta has most likely converted from net accretion to net erosion in response to fluvial sediment decline, and the mouth bar area showed the latest conversion among portions of the delta. Integrated assessment and adaptive strategies are urgently required for the Yangtze Delta to survive the coming erosional stage.

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Fluid mud (FM) is a unique sedimentary feature in high-turbidity estuaries, where it can make a rapid contribution to morphodynamics. Insufficient field measurements and fixed-point monitoring lead to deficient understandings of the formation, transport, and breakdown of the FM under extreme weather conditions. A field survey was conducted in the Changjiang Estuary during the period of turbidity maximum, just after Typhoon Haikui. The measurements captured the formation of the FM beneath the suspended layers, particularly around the lower reach of the North Passage. The thickness of the observed FM gradually decreased landward along the channel, with the maximum value reaching ~0.9 m. The major features of the observed storm-induced FM were simulated using the Finite-Volume Community Ocean Model. The results indicated that the initial appearance of the FM was the result of a typhoon-intensified, salinity-induced stratification in the outlet region. The subsequent landward propagation of the FM was driven by the combined effects of the FM-induced mud surface pressure gradient force and saltwater intrusion near the bottom. Weak mixing during the subsequent neap tidal period sustained the FM as it rapidly extended into the middle region of the North Passage. This produced a large velocity shear at the interface of the FM and upper suspension layer, increasing the entrainment from the FM to the upper suspension layer. As a result of the increased tidal mixing, the FM weakened and then finally broke down in the subsequent spring tidal period.

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Lateral flow significantly contributes to the near-bottom mass transport of salinity in a channel-shoal system. In this study, an integrated tripod system was deployed in the transition zone of a channel-shoal system of the Changjiang Estuary (CE), China, to observe the near-bottom physics with high temporal/spatial resolution, particularly focusing on the lateral-flow-induced mass transport. These in situ observations revealed a small-scale salinity fluctuation around low water slack during moderate and spring tidal conditions. A simultaneous strong lateral current was also observed, which was responsible for this small-scale fluctuation. A high-resolution unstructured-grid Finite-Volume Community Ocean Model has been applied for the CE to better understand the mechanism of this lateral flow and its impact on salinity transport. The model results indicate that a significant southward near-bed shoal-to-channel current is generated by the salinity-driven baroclinic pressure gradient. This lateral current affects the salinity transport pattern and the residual current in the cross-channel direction. Cross-channel residual current shows a two-layer structure in the vertical, especially in the intermediate tide when the lateral flow notably occurred. Both observation and model results indicate that near-bottom residual transport of water moved consistently southward (shoal to channel). Mechanisms for this intratidal salinity variation and its implications can be extended to other estuaries with similar channel-shoal features.

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Understanding the decadal morphodynamic evolution of estuaries and deltas and their controls is of vital importance regarding management for estuarine function and sustainable development. This work addresses this issue by applying a process-based model system (Delft3D) to hindcast and then forecast the morphodynamic evolution of the Yangtze Estuary at a decadal timescale. Forced by the river and tides, the model considers sand-mud mixture and the variations of river water discharge and sediment discharge. The morphodynamic model is validated against three periods, i.e., an accretion period (1958-1978), an erosion period (1986-1997) and a recent accretion period with human activities (2002-2010). Model results show good performance with respect to spatial erosion and deposition patterns, sediment volume changes, and hypsometry curves. The model reveals quite different behaviors for mud transport between the dry and wet seasons, which is subject to the prescription of river boundary conditions and bed composition. We define six scenarios to project evolution to the year 2030 under decreased river inputs and increased relative sea level. The simulations reveal that overwhelming amount of erosion will likely occur in the inner and mouth bar area of the estuary. Particularly, the mouth zone will shift from net deposition before 2010 to net erosion by 2030, mainly because of decreasing sediment supply. Changes in water discharge have minor effects on the projected trend. Net erosion will be considerable when the sediment supply is extremely low (100 Mt yr–1) due to the abundance of erodible modern sediment in the Yangtze Estuary. Erosion within the mouth bar area may be unexpected, including the deepening of the tidal inlet at East Chongming mudflat and the formation of a flood channel on the seaward side of Jiuduansha Shoal. Overall, the model results provide valuable information for sustainable delta management under changing conditions for both the Yangtze system and other similar estuaries and deltas with diminishing sediment supplies.@en