KEY POINTS (I) A biophysical model framework (BMF) for corals is developed in which four environmental factors are included: (1) light; (2) hydrodynamics; (3) temperature; and (4) acidity. (II) The full feedback loop between corals and their environment forms the core of this model framework, where the morphological development is new and closes the feedback loop. (III) The developed BMF predicts the coral response to environmental input via (mainly) process-based relations within the accuracy of climate projections. (IV)- The BMF supports both the deep reef refugia hypothesis and the turbid reef refugia hypothesis. (V) The BMF contributes to the development of protection and recovery programs and is not site-specific. (VI) The BMF is developed for long-term predictions - in the order of decades to centuries - but runs on daily averages and is therefore applicable for assessing the response of corals on shorter time-scales; such as months to years. SUMMARY The increasing pressure on Earth’s ecosystems due to climate change becomes more and more evident. These pressures are especially visible at coral reefs. Therefore, a good understanding of the biophysical mechanisms controlling these ecosystems is needed, so that accurate predictions of their survival can be made. Such an understanding is also needed to develop efficient recovery and protection programs vital to the maintenance of these ecosystems. Because the research on marine ecosystems is relatively young and the phenomenon of coral bleaching is yet to be fully understood, there is no comprehensive framework in which the complex interactions between corals and their environment are combined. In this study, a biophysical model is developed in which four environmental factors are included in a feedback loop with the coral’s biology: (1) light; (2) hydrodynamics; (3) temperature; and (4) acidity. Literature from multiple disciplines is combined to find the interdependencies between the corals and their environment. These relations include coral growth, coral bleaching, storm damage, and recruitment/recolonization of corals. For the connection with the hydrodynamics, a coupling is made between the biological model developed here and Delft3D-FM. The composed biophysical model is a big leap forward in understanding the world of coral reefs, as it is the first construction of a model framework including four environmental factors in which the hydrodynamics are included in the feedback loop. Furthermore, it creates the ability to assess recovery and protection programs based on the four aforementioned environmental factors; e.g. the susceptibility of coral bleaching can be reduced by increasing the attenuation of light through the water column. Because more environmental factors have a role to play in the coral dynamics, the framework is constructed such that these can be added relatively easily.

This report contains the conceptual lay-out for two possible expansions of the port of Bahía Blanca. To determine the best conceptual lay-outs, emphasis is drawn to understand the physical system to determine the effect of the expansion of the port on the natural system. The port of Bahía Blanca is situated at the end of a ria, or tidal basin. For the designs, different conceptual lay-outs are developed and simulated in a hydrodynamic model called MOHID. This is a 2D depth-averaged model (2DH), which uses a rough bathymetry grid of the ria to determine the effect of the port development. There are three mutations of the different port expansions on the environment, which are investigated using the MOHID-model: (1) the East expansion, containing reclamation of tidal flats and closure of a side channel; (2) the South expansion, containing a widening and elongation of the channel and reclamation of tidal flats; and (3) the deepening of the entire navigation channel to various minimum depths. From the results of the MOHID-model on the East expansion conclusions on the mutations of the different port expansions are drawn. For the East expansion, only small changes are predicted; only local erosion in the navigation channel near the expansion may occur. For the South expansion, the flow velocities reduce in the entire stretch and there seems to be sedimentation at the eastern part of the expansion.
As a conclusion the best and most feasible designs are chosen. The best design is the lay-out that obtained the highest score in the MultiCriteria- Analysis (MCA). The most feasible design is the design having the highest cost/benefit ratio determined by a Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA). The east bank is located close to the current port, Ingeniero White, on tidal flats which are inundated at high-water and dry at low-water. For the East expansion, different port lay-outs are developed mainly differing in amount of reclaimed land, length of viaducts and the presence of a mooring basin. The best design on the east is characterised as being very compact and having small viaducts between the dry bulk and agribulk terminals and jetties. The main advantage of this design is the small expected increase of siltation, good safety and sufficient future expansion possibilities. The most feasible design, however, is characterised by long viaducts reducing the costs of the design. The other appointed location for the port expansion is the south bank, opposite of the current port development. This location, however, is characterised by one main disadvantage; It is far from any form of connection with the hinterland. Nevertheless, in 2013, the port authority (CGPBB) initiated the start of small reclamation works. The best and most feasible design fully utilises this reclaimed portion of land. Moreover, the best design has a small expected increase of siltation in the port area. For a final designs, all previous designs are combined to create a design in which all the advantages of each of the designs are fully incorporated. Therefore, this design has little reclamation as well as viaducts with only intermediate lengths.