Evaluating the temporal stability and risk of unsaturated soil slopes during rainfall is essential for early warning and emergency response to landslides. However, limited research has been conducted on the transition timing of sliding mechanisms, instability/failure time and the integration of sliding consequences into quantitative risk assessment. In order to extend the research in this field, the Random Finite Element Method (RFEM) is used in this paper to investigate the influence of spatial variability of hydraulic properties (related to the fundamental parameter porosity) on the temporal stability and risk of soil slopes subject to rainfall. The findings indicate that the advancing speed of the wetting front is more rapidly in zones with low porosity than that in zones with high porosity. As rainfall progresses, the sliding mechanism of the slope shifts from deep sliding to shallow sliding. The homogeneous case tends to underestimate the rise in groundwater levels, leading to an overestimation of slope stability. Hydraulic boundary conditions significantly affect slope stability, making it crucial to consider horizontal (or near the toe of the slope) drainage conditions in practical applications. Additionally, the time of instability/failure predicted in the homogeneous case may be delayed compared to the actual conditions. Both probability of instability/failure and risk increase with continued rainfall. Compared to scenarios where the spatial variability of internal friction angle is not considered, the probability of instability/failure and risk will be higher when the spatial variability of internal friction angle is additionally considered. Risk-based assessment can define the risk levels, reflecting the severity of sliding consequences. Furthermore, the Malin slope failure record from the Chibo region of India is used to validate the effectiveness of the proposed approach. The probabilities of slope failure align well with actual observations, and the risk-based assessment provides additional information into the Malin landslide. This paper proposes a general model for studying the performance of heterogeneous slopes subject to rainfall, providing valuable guidance for landslide early warning systems and the scope and timing of emergency measures taken.

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Very few developed economies have a full free trade agreement (FTA) with China. This study employs one GTAP model and builds an extended environmental multi-region input–output model to investigate a hypothetical China-UK FTA, concerning embodied industrial emissions of SO2, PM2.5, NOX, and NH3. The economic sectors are also classified based on their embodied pollution intensity and trade advantage index under various FTA scenarios. Results show that the UK’s GDP and welfare and China’s welfare will increase, along with changes in their trade structures. Overall, this FTA brings about larger net impacts on embodied emissions of SO2 than on PM2.5, NOX and NH3, and both countries are net importers of the latter three pollutants. Key sectors such as non-metallic mineral products, chemical products, and agriculture are inclined to become less competitive and less polluting under the FTA. The inclusion of agri-food sectors exhibits slight counteracting effects in general. The findings are of policy importance as they provide insights into how best to target key sectors, seeking a balance between trade development and environmental protection.@en

Dr. M. Sam Mannan is one of the true pioneers in the process safety area, spending almost his entire lifetime in process safety and risk research. He was dedicated to ‘make safety second nature’ and published an impressive body of work. An overview of his research helps understanding the process safety area and provides insight in the legacy of this process safety pioneer. In this paper, 327 publications authored by Dr. Mannan from 1999 to 2019 in Web of Science core collection were downloaded and visually analyzed from four perspectives: his publication outputs, collaboration networks, topic areas, and highly cited papers and cited references. The results show a rapidly increasing trend in his research activity, mostly through journal publications. He published in 53 different outlets, with Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries being most frequently selected. Dr. Mannan had a very active and diverse worldwide network, and collaborated with 18 different countries/regions, nearly 90 different institutions and 387 authors. His publications addressed process safety-related topics widely, including safety related to liquefied natural gas, explosions, runaway reactions, inherent safety, flammability and aerosol, and more recently resilience. Dr. Mannan's most cited paper focused on ‘fuzzy risk matrix’, whereas the most frequently cited reference in his work is ‘thermal hazard evaluation by an accelerating rate calorimeter’ by Townsend DI in 1980. Based on his most recent research activity, promising future directions for process safety research include resilience linked to risk assessment and management, for instance through the ‘safety triad’ concept he promoted shortly before passing away.

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