The energy transition makes us less dependent on fossil fuels, but it also brings a new dependence to the table: a dependence on critical metals for green technology. This study used an Exploratory System Dynamics Modelling and Analysis approach to analyse the transition to a circular lithium system towards 2050 and the potential effectiveness of the Battery Regulation. It was shown that the Battery Regulation is likely to increase the end-of-life lithium recovery rate. However, it is yet unsure whether the set of policies is robust in preventing recycling from coming at the cost of lifetime-extending strategies. Furthermore, even with a successful implementation of the Battery Regulation, the contribution of circularity strategies to increase supply and reduce demand is limited in the short term. It is therefore recommended to improve the prioritisation of lifetime extending strategies and to give extra focus to decreasing the material intensity of our economy.