Peri-urban transformations in emerging economies like India demand scientific attention given their impact on global environmental change processes. Some studies examine past or ongoing peri-urban adaptation processes, but insight into future adaptation needs and aspirations of peri-urban communities is lacking. Also, it is unknown how the high degree of informality that characterizes peri-urban areas, interacts with formal institutions to shape or enable more sustainable adaptation pathways. This study addresses these scientific gaps, using an existing typology of adaptation processes to investigate plausible future adaptation pathways in three peri-urban villages in India, near Pune, Hyderabad, and Kolkata cities. On-site field research followed by a Delphi-study were used to develop normative adaptation pathways for livelihood and household water use with local actors. The pathways represent development trajectories and adaptation strategies over the next 15 years in the livelihood and household water sectors. Pathways data was thereafter analyzed and compared in terms of drivers of vulnerability and opportunity, adaptation processes, and formal and informal institutions. Our ex-ante study identifies general and context specific drivers of vulnerability and opportunity shaping different peri-urban transformations. Results reveal similarities in future drivers, whose impact on peri-urban livelihoods and household water is context dependent. This comparative analysis contributes a deeper understanding of future adaptation needs by highlighting patterns in locally preferred adaptation processes for different drivers and water-use sectors. This normative understanding reveals preferences of local communities who are otherwise marginalized from decision-making arenas. A combination of adaptation processes will be needed to respond to the various drivers, only some of which are achievable through informal institutions. Formal government intervention will be essential for stimulating innovation, intensification, and revitalization forms of adaptation. Institutional adjustments will be key to shaping local agency and future adaptive capacity away from a business-as-usual trajectory.@en

Adaptation pathways is a planning approach used to design flexible, long-term strategies for dealing with future uncertainty. However, emphasis on how to discuss pathways elements with stakeholders during the pathways building process is under-represented in the existing pathways literature. This paper presents a participatory methodology for building normative adaptation pathways with local stakeholders. Iterative discussions are facilitated using a Delphi study that is designed to explicitly consider institutional, and multi-actor dimensions in the formulation of future adaptive strategies. This leads to adaptation pathways that are more inclusive of local needs. This paper describes the steps for iteratively designing adaptation pathways in a multi-actor setting through a Delphi study. A pilot application of this Delphi-based adaptation pathway approach is illustrated with local actors in peri-urban Kolkata (India) for future water management. It demonstrates how this methodology offers a structured way to introduce pathways thinking to local stakeholders and helps build consensus about future preferences and adaptation options. Moreover, it stimulates discussions about normative differences across and within stakeholder groups through the underlying values that define future pathways as well as the institutional adjustments needed to successfully activate adaptations strategies over time. Future work may be directed towards to strengthening discussions around uncertainty, connecting pathways to a broader set of future scenarios, and comparing this facilitation method against other existing ones.@en

In the published article, there was an error in the author list, and authors “Sharlene L. Gomes, Shreya Chakraborty, and Leon M. Hermans” were erroneously excluded. The corrected author list appears below. “Sarah Luft Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Institute for Geography, University of Cologne, Cologne, Germany Sharlene L. Gomes Faculty of Governance and Global Affairs, Institute of Public Administration, Leiden University, The Hague, Netherlands Shreya Chakraborty South Asia Consortium for Interdisciplinary Water Resources Studies, Hyderabad, India Leon M. Hermans Faculty of Technology, Policy, and Management, Delft University of Technology, Delft, Netherlands and Land andWaterManagement Department, IHE Delft Institute forWater Education, Delft, Netherlands.@en