Mode Collapse Happens: Evaluating Critical Interactions in Joint Trajectory Prediction Models

Abstract

Autonomous vehicles rely on prediction modules, in order to plan collision-free trajectories. Vehicle trajectory prediction models are multimodal, to account for the multiple route options and the inherent uncertainty in human behavior. The state-of-the-art prediction models are deep-learning models, which are susceptible to mode collapse, a phenomenon in which the model fails to output the full distribution of modes and only predicts the most likely one. Mode collapsing poses safety concerns for autonomous driving, as missed predictions could result in collisions. Most works have focused on addressing this issue by generating diverse predictions that cover various route options at the environmental level. However, there are no metrics for mode-collapse. Furthermore, little attention has been given to generating diversity in the interaction modes among agent trajectories. Additionally, the traditional distance-based metrics are heavily dependent on datasets and do not evaluate interactions between agents. To this end, we propose a novel evaluation framework that assesses the interaction modes of joint trajectory predictions, focusing only on the safety-critical interactions in a dataset. We introduce a metric for mode-collapse and time-based metrics for mode correctness and coverage, shedding light on the temporal dimension of the predictions. We test four multi-agent trajectory prediction models on the widely used nuScenes dataset and conclude that mode collapse happens. While the rate of correctly predicted interaction modes increases closer to the interaction event, there are still cases where the models are unable to predict the interaction mode even right before the interaction happens. With the introduction of our novel framework, researchers can now benchmark their models’ performance in predicting critical interactions. This provides new insights and perspectives, helping the holistic evaluation and interpretation of a model’s performance. Additionally, our work offers a new developmental direction for prediction models, aiming for greater consistency and accuracy in predicting agent interactions, thereby advancing the safety of autonomous driving systems. Our evaluation framework is available online at: https://github.com/MaartenHugenholtz/InteractionEval