A Markov-based vulnerability assessment for the design of on-board distributed systems in the concept phase

Abstract

Naval ships are designed to operate in a hostile environment. As such, vulnerability is an important aspect that needs to be assessed during the design. With the increased interest in electrification and automation on board naval ships, the vulnerability of distributed systems has become a major topic of interest. However, assessing this is not trivial, especially during the concept phase, where the level of detail is limited, but consequences of design decisions are large. Many existing vulnerability methods assess the vulnerability of pre-defined concepts, and focus on systems rather than capabilities. To address this, a new method for assessing the vulnerability of distributed systems in the concept phase has been developed. This method not only evaluates the vulnerability of a pre-defined concept, but also provides direction for finding other, potentially better solutions. This is done from a capabilities perspective. The method helps ship designers and naval staff in setting vulnerability requirements, developing new concepts, and identifying trade-offs in capabilities. The method uses a discrete Markov chain and the eigenvalues of the associated transition matrix. A test case considering vulnerability of a notional Ocean-going Patrol Vessel (OPV) with two different powering concepts illustrates the method.