Transportation and spatial impact of automated driving in urban areas

Abstract

Vehicle automation has the potential to disrupt the status quo of urban transportation, because it adds a new mode of transportation by taking away the task of the driver. The projections of estimations of the impacts of this new technology are based on many uncertainties and are thus largely unknown. A literature review showed that a wide number of effects is possible with automated driving and that no straightforward method to assess future impacts of this new technology exists yet. This thesis developed a method that provides insights into the impacts of vehicle automation in urban areas, without preconceived ideas about the impacts of the different scenarios. Existing knowledge from literature, transportation and land use data, and sociodemographic information were combined in a geographically disaggregated
System Dynamic model. This model explored the effects of vehicle automation on the performance of the transportation and spatial system of the case-study city of Copenhagen, Denmark. Different model runs provided insight in the possible range of outcomes. Considerable problems may arise in the transportation network with the introduction of automated driving because, using the car might become very attractive. A city’s land use does, however, not change as much as many could expect. The causes of (un)desirable outcomes
were identified with the Patient Rule Induction Method. The ranges of uncertainties in the value of time in an automated vehicle and in the level of adoption of car-sharing were found to influence desirable versus undesirable futures the most. Mitigating measures should focus on these scenarios to prepare for a future with automated driving.