Inferring modality styles by revealing mode choice heterogeneity in response to weather conditions

Abstract

To inform policies aimed at more sustainable travel behaviour, previous research has investigated the concept of multimodality. The notion underlying this line of research is that increasing the degree of multimodality will lead to less car dependence and therefore more sustainable travel behaviour. This paper investigates multimodality by inferring modality styles and revealing their response to exogenous variation in the form of the weather. The main idea of this paper is that travellers with a more multimodal modality style are more sensitive to exogenous variation, and that they are therefore more likely to resort to the use of the car when ‘car-favouring’ conditions present themselves. The results show that the effects of weather conditions on mode choices do indeed differ between three modality styles. The identified modality styles can be summarised as (1) bike + car; (2) car mostly and (3) multimodal. For the third class, which has the highest degree of multimodality, the use of the sustainable modes is more strongly affected by weather conditions when compared to the first, less multimodal, class. The least multimodal second class meanwhile is least affected by a change in weather conditions. More multimodal travellers thus seem to be more susceptible to exogenous variation, which might prevent the formation of sustainable travel habits or patterns. Based on these results, the claim that a higher degree of multimodality will lead to more sustainable behaviour and that policy makers should aim to realise a shift towards more multimodal modality styles needs to be nuanced. Policy makers should instead focus directly on increasing the attractiveness of sustainable travel modes, which will inadvertently lead to more multimodal modality styles.