The national government of the Netherlands has mandated heat transition to the municipality as part of the global execution of climate agreement. However, despite many guides has been offered, municipal heat-transition policy is a tricky matter that the municipal policy-makers struggle to grasp. To support the systematic municipal heat transition policy-making process, we propose the usage of a Decision Support System (DSS) that serves the whole cycle of policy-making. However, there is a knowledge gap of an integrated DSS framework with both policy target profiling and policy system (policy cycle) that is a context-specific for the municipal heat transition policy-making in the Netherlands. Therefore, this thesis study was conducted to answer the research question: "what decision support system framework can systematically assist municipalities in the heat transition policy-making process?" To answer this question, a refined Heat Transition Policy Making (HeTPoM) DSS framework is made based on a functional visual design method to cater to the needs of DSS creation in the context of municipal heat transition policy-making in the Netherlands. The refined HeTPoM DSS framework is designed to support policy-makers to create a systematic municipal heat transition policy by supporting the process of policy design, assessment, and evaluation. Furthermore, the refined HeTPoM DSS framework can potentially be used as a base to create a computerised municipal heat transition policy-making DSS. This then leads into two types of future research recommendations that need to be done in series. First is the HeTPoM DSS framework components mechanism study (i.e. the interaction between municipal heat transition influencing factors and the policy-making process). Which then can be followed by digital architecture of the DSS system to support the development of municipal heat transition DSS.

In 2018 the Dutch national government announced its decision to end natural gas extraction. This decision poses a challenge for local governments (municipalities) which have to organize a heat supply that is natural gas-free. Energy models can decrease the complexity of this challenge, but some challenges hinder the effective use of energy models for heat transition decision-making. The present study aims to bridge current knowledge gaps by providing insight into the advantages and limitations of using energy models in the heating transition and by providing recommendations for more effective use. To this end, literature on energy models, data-driven policy design and good modelling practices is reviewed, and case studies are conducted, including ten Dutch municipalities and 23 (expert) interviews. According to interviewees data, advantages of using energy models in heating transition projects are that the modelling process provides perspective for action, financial and socio-economic insights, transparency and legitimacy and means to start useful discussions. Perceived limitations include that models and modelling results are considered too abstract for local analysis, not user-friendly and complex. The present study concludes that the use of energy models in heating transition projects can become more effective by developing and preserving knowledge regarding energy modelling at municipalities, by providing more user-friendly models and/or model interfaces, by developing more efficient data collection processes at municipalities, by improving heat source, energy use and thermal insulation level data sets, by offering comparative modelling studies and by ensuring model developers collaborate and specialize more.