Earth's climate sensitivity depends on how shallow clouds in the trades respond to changes in the large-scale tropical circulation with warming. In canonical theory for this cloud-circulation coupling, it is assumed that the clouds are controlled by the field of vertical motion on horizontal scales larger than the convection's depth (~1 km). This assumption has been challenged both by recent in situ observations, and idealized large-eddy simulations (LESs). Here, we therefore bring together the recent observations, new analysis from satellite data, and a 40-day, large-domain (1600 x 900 km2) LES of the North Atlantic from the 2020 EUREC4A field campaign, to study the interaction between shallow convection and vertical motions on scales between 10 and 1,000 km (mesoscales), in settings that are as realistic as possible. Across all data sets, the shallow mesoscale vertical motions are consistently represented, ubiquitous, frequently organized into circulations, and formed without imprinting themselves on the mesoscale buoyancy field. Therefore, we use the weak-temperature gradient approximation to show that between at least 12.5–400 km scales, the vertical motion balances heating fluctuations in groups of precipitating shallow cumuli. That is, across the mesoscales, shallow convection controls the vertical motion in the trades, and does not simply adjust to it. In turn, the mesoscale convective heating patterns appear to consistently grow through moisture-convection feedback. Therefore, to represent and understand the cloud-circulation coupling of trade cumuli, the full range of scales between the synoptics and the hectometer must be included in our conceptual and numerical models.@en

Recent observations of the trade-wind regions highlight the covariability between cold-pool properties and mesoscale cloud organization. Given the covariability of organization with cloud cover and albedo, this suggests a potential impact of cold pools on the cloud radiative effect (CRE). To explore this, we use an ensemble of 103 large-domain, high-resolution, large-eddy simulations and investigate how the variability in cold pools is determined by large-scale external cloud-controlling factors (CCFs) and shaped by processes within the mesoscale. It is demonstrated that the size and frequency of occurrence of cold pools are strongly influenced by the near-surface horizontal wind speed and large-scale subsidence. The temporal evolution of cold pools is strongly correlated with the diurnality in radiation. Even without external variability, we find a strong intermittent behaviour in the evolution of cold pools, governed by a complex interplay between cold pools and clouds which expresses itself in the form of shallow squall lines. These squall lines result from precipitating downdrafts, cold pool outflows and the resulting gust fronts, reinforcing parent clouds. Cold pools influence the CRE of trade cumuli, but only when they exist during the day. This emphasizes the importance of the synchronization between cold-pool events and the diurnal cycle of insolation for the dependence of the CRE on cold pools.@en

This study investigates momentum transport in shallow cumulus clouds as simulated with the Dutch Atmospheric Large Eddy Simulation (DALES) for a 150 3 150 km2 domain east of Barbados during 9 days of EUREC4A. DALES is initialized and forced with the mesoscale weather model HARMONIE-AROME and subjectively reproduces observed cloud patterns. This study examines the evolution of momentum transport, which scales contribute to it, and how they modulate the trade winds. Daily-mean momentum flux profiles show downgradient zonal momentum transport in the subcloud layer, which turns countergradient in the cloud layer. The meridional momentum transport is nontrivial, with mostly downgradient transport throughout the trade wind layer except near the top of the surface layer and near cloud tops. Substantial spatial and temporal heterogeneity in momentum flux is observed with much stronger tendencies imposed in areas of organized convection. The study finds that while scales < 2 km dominate momentum flux at 200 m in unorganized fields, submesoscales O(2-20) km carry up to 50% of the zonal momentum flux in the cloud layer in organized fields. For the meridional momentum flux, this fraction is even larger near the surface and in the subcloud layer. The scale dependence of the momentum flux is not explained by changes in convective or boundary layer depth. Instead, the results suggest the importance of spatial heterogeneity, increasing horizontal length scales, and countergradient transport in the presence of organized convection.

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Shallow trade cumuli over subtropical oceans are a persistent source of uncertainty in climate projections. Mesoscale organization of trade cumulus clouds has been shown to influence their cloud radiative effect (CRE) through cloud cover. We investigate whether organization can explain CRE variability independently of cloud-cover variability. By analyzing satellite observations and high-resolution simulations, we show that more clustered cloud fields feature geometrically thicker clouds with larger domain-averaged liquid water paths, smaller cloud droplets, and consequently larger cloud optical depths. The relationships between these variables are shaped by the mixture of deep cloud cores and shallower interstitial clouds or anvils that characterize cloud organization. Eliminating cloud-cover effects, more clustered clouds reflect up to 20 W/m2 more instantaneous shortwave radiation back to space.@en

Recent observations of the trades highlight the covariability between cold pool (CP) properties and cloud cover, suggesting a potential impact of CPs on the cloud radiative effect (CRE). To explore this, we use an ensemble of 103 large-domain, high-resolution, large-eddy simulations (Cloud Botany). We investigate the extent to which the variability in CPs is driven by external conditions or convective self-organization. Our findings show that CPs are notably controlled by large-scale conditions, specifically (horizontal) wind speed and subsidence. The temporal evolution of CPs is tightly related to the diurnality in radiation. To understand the extent to which CPs vary with self-organization, we switch off the diurnality in radiation. Despite the absence of the diurnal cycle, CP time series still exhibit fluctuations. These fluctuations result from the recharge-discharge of thermodynamic and dynamic properties of the sub-cloud layer owing to CP-cloud interactions. Our results demonstrate that circulations induced by CPs reinforce the parent clouds, resulting in deepening and scale growth, followed by mesoscale arcs enclosing clear-sky areas. Finally, we show that CPs influence CRE, but only when they exist during the day. Our findings emphasize the importance of the relationship between the timescales of self-organization and the diurnal cycle of external conditions, greatly influencing the CRE dependency on self-organizing CPs.@en

Numerical simulations of the tropical mesoscales often exhibit a self-reinforcing feedback between cumulus convection and shallow circulations, which leads to the self-aggregation of clouds into large clusters. We investigate whether this basic feedback can be adequately captured by large-eddy simulations (LESs). To do so, we simulate the non-precipitating, cumulus-topped boundary layer of the canonical “BOMEX” case over a range of numerical settings in two models. Since the energetic convective scales underpinning the self-aggregation are only slightly larger than typical LES grid spacings, aggregation timescales do not converge even at rather high resolutions (<100 m). Therefore, high resolutions or improved sub-filter scale models may be required to faithfully represent certain forms of trade-wind mesoscale cloud patterns and self-aggregating deep convection in large-eddy and cloud-resolving models, and to understand their significance relative to other processes that organize the tropical mesoscales.

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Small shallow cumulus clouds (less-than 1 km) over the tropical oceans appear to possess the ability to self-organize into mesoscale (10–100 km) patterns. To better understand the processes leading to such self-organized convection, we present Cloud Botany, an ensemble of 103 large-eddy simulations on domains of 150 km, produced by the Dutch Atmospheric Large Eddy Simulation model on supercomputer Fugaku. Each simulation is run in an idealized, fixed, larger-scale environment, controlled by six free parameters. We vary these over characteristic ranges for the winter trades, including parameter combinations observed during the EUREC4A (Elucidating the role of clouds–circulation coupling in climate) field campaign. In contrast to simulation setups striving for maximum realism, Cloud Botany provides a platform for studying idealized, and therefore more clearly interpretable causal relationships between conditions in the larger-scale environment and patterns in mesoscale, self-organized shallow convection. We find that any simulation that supports cumulus clouds eventually develops mesoscale patterns in their cloud fields. We also find a rich variety in these patterns as our control parameters change, including cold pools lined by cloudy arcs, bands of cross-wind clouds and aggregated patches, sometimes topped by thin anvils. Many of these features are similar to cloud patterns found in nature. The published data set consists of raw simulation output on full 3D grids and 2D cross-sections, as well as post-processed quantities aggregated over the vertical (2D), horizontal (1D) and all spatial dimensions (time-series). The data set is directly accessible from Python through the use of the EUREC4A intake catalog.@en

Condensation in cumulus clouds plays a key role in structuring the mean, nonprecipitating trade wind boundary layer. Here, we summarize how this role also explains the spontaneous growth of mesoscale [.O(10) km] fluctuations in clouds and moisture around the mean state in a minimal-physics, large-eddy simulation of the undisturbed period during BOMEX on a large [O(100) km] domain. Small, spatial anomalies in condensation in cumulus clouds, which form on top of small moisture fluctuations, power circulations that transport moisture, but not heat, from dry to moist regions, and thus reinforce the condensation anomaly. We frame this positive feedback as a linear instability in mesoscale moisture fluctuations, whose time scale depends only on (i) a vertical velocity scale and (ii) the mean environment's vertical structure. In our minimal-physics setting, we show both ingredients are provided by the shallow cumulus convection itself: it is intrinsically unstable to length scale growth. The upshot is that energy released by clouds at kilometer scales may play a more profound and direct role in shaping the mesoscale trade wind environment than is generally appreciated, motivating further research into the mechanism's relevance.

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Temporary stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) using sulphate compounds could help avoid some of the adverse and irreversible impacts of global warming, but comprises many risks and uncertainties. Among these, the direct financial cost and carbon emissions of potential SAI delivery systems have hitherto received only modest attention. Therefore, this paper quantifies the initial and operating financial costs and initial and operating equivalent CO₂ (CO₂eq) emissions of the specialised aircraft-based SAI delivery system developed with relatively high-fidelity tools in part 1 of this series. We analyse an interval of operating conditions, within which we devote special attention to four injection scenarios outlined in part 1: Three scenarios where H₂SO₄ vapour is directly injected at several dispersion rates and one SO₂ injection scenario. We estimate financial cost through Raymer’s adjustment of Rand Corporation’s Development and Production Costs for Aircraft (DAPCA) model, augmented by additional data. CO₂eq emission is computed from existing data and the computed fuel consumption for each of the scenarios. The latter estimates include an emission weighting factor to account for non-CO₂ aircraft combustion products at altitude. For direct H₂SO₄ injection, both financial cost and CO₂eq emission are sensitive to the design dispersion rate. For scenarios where higher dispersion rates are achieved, the delivery system’s cost and CO₂eq are relatively small compared with the presumed benefits of SAI. The most optimistic H₂SO₄ scenario is found to have a financial cost and CO₂eq emission similar to that of SO₂ injection, while potentially allowing for reductions in the annual mass of sulphur injected to achieve a target negative radiative forcing. The estimates of financial cost and CO₂eq emission were subjected to sensitivity analyses in several key parameters, including aircraft operational empty weight, engine specific fuel consumption, fuel price and aerosol price. The results indicate that the feasibility of the considered scenarios is robust.

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If global warming proceeds at high rates, it may become necessary to enact control measures to bridge the period required for mitigation measures to become effective. Solar radiation management via stratospheric aerosol injection is one approach [1, 2]. This study examines the design and impact of a steered SAI system using specialised aircraft. Four injection scenarios were considered. Three focus on 15 Mt/yr steered H2SO4 injection over a range of possible dispersion rates, one on 20 Mt/yr unsteered SO2 injection. Controlling dispersion rate, prescribed by initial aerosol concentration and engine plume diffusivity, allows control over early particle formation leading to favourable particle sizes [3, 4]. A coupled optimisation procedure was used for the design of the delivery system. Its economic and environmental impact analyses were performed using existing models and additional data from literature. The design procedure resulted in an unmanned aircraft with a large, slender, strut-braced wing and four custom turbofan engines. The aircraft carries high-temperature H2SO4 and evaporates it during injection into one outboard engine plume. H2SO4 dispersion rate has a strong impact on the scale of the operation in terms of fleet size and flights per day. Maximisation of dispersion rate within the range for favourable aerosol particle formation enables achieving the annual delivery rate using shorter and fewer flights. Fleet size is the largest contributor to economic impact, and fleet size and fuel consumption drive environmental impact, hence maximising dispersion rate minimises both impacts. The resources required and the impact of the most optimistic steered scenario are comparable to those of unsteered SO2 injection, assuming that SO2 injection requires twice as much annual S delivery. The results show that achieving high jet plume diffusivities for maximisation of dispersion rate is of significant benefit for the successful implementation of steered SAI. Yet, all the scenarios analysed are technologically and logistically attainable and the anticipated economic and environmental impact of developing and operating specialised aircraft can be considered to be manageable for all steered H2SO4 injection scenarios.@en