Investing in low-carbon technologies, including light-duty vehicles, is a strategy to decarbonize the residential sector and private mobility. This work aims to assess the parameters driving the economic convenience of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) for a household, and what are the economic implications of BEV adoption on the total cost of the residential energy system in case of house renovation. An archetypal household energy system has been modelled for the Italian context, where strong residential energy efficiency incentives have been put in place in recent years. Adopting a least-cost-oriented energy system optimization model, 33’600 residential energy system configurations have been analysed through an extensive sensitivity analysis carried out focusing on crucial input parameters, classified as behavioural (annual travelled distance, expected ownership time of the car), energy-related (electricity and heating demand, house location, PV installed capacity), and economic (grid electricity price, gasoline prices and incentives on BEV purchase). Results show that integration with PV installation is the parameter most strongly correlated with BEV adoption, followed by annual travelled distance and ownership time. Moreover, results suggest that an increase in electricity prices has a lower impact on disincentivizing BEVs adoption compared to how much an equivalent increase in gasoline prices disincentivizes ICEVs adoption. Valuable insights reveal that, within the range of the Italian average gasoline price, BEV-based energy systems remain competitive. This holds even with a high electricity price, provided a minimum of 3 kW photovoltaic capacity is installed. In light of the ongoing energy crisis in Europe, these findings are promising for BEV adoption, particularly if accompanied by BEV incentive policies.

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The decarbonisation of residential heat through integration with the power system and deployment of refurbishment policies is at the core of European energy policies. Yet, heat-electricity integration may be challenged, in practice, by the large variability of heat demand across weather years. Current approaches for residential heat demand simulation fail to provide insights about the extent of such variability across many weather years and about the benefits potentially brought about by nearly zero-energy buildings. To fill this gap, this work develops an open-source space-heating demand simulation workflow that is applicable to any country's building stock. The workflow, based on a well-established lumped-parameter thermodynamic model, allows capturing sub-national weather-year variability and the mitigation effects of refurbishment. For Italy, different weather years lead to variations in heat demand up to 2 TWh/day, lasting for several days. Moreover, some weather regimes produce spatial asymmetries that may further complicate heat-electricity integration. The refurbishment of about 55% of buildings constructed before 1975 could substantially mitigate such oscillations, leading to a 31–37% reduction of yearly heat demand, primarily in colder regions. Intra-day heat demand variations, driven by user behaviour, are not substantially impacted by refurbishment, calling for the simultaneous deployment of flexible heat generating technologies.

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To support the ongoing transition towards smart and decarbonised energy systems, energy models need to expand their scope and predictive capabilities. To this end, this study proposes a multi-layer modelling methodology that soft-links (i) a stochastic bottom-up load curves estimation model, (ii) a technology-rich energy system optimisation model (Calliope) and (iii) a Multi-Regional Input-Output model (Exiobase v.3), and applies it to investigate the economic and environmental consequences entailed by a massive replacement of traditional gas-fired kitchens with induction kitchens within the Italian residential sector. Two scenarios are considered for the analysis: (i) business as usual (BAU, 2015 energy system configuration), and (ii) national energy strategy (SEN, configuration prospected in 2030). The results show how the intervention produces positive net effects on the primary energy balance of the energy sector only when sustained by adequate shares of renewables, as in the SEN (−1.5 TWh∙y−1); otherwise, increased operation of fossil-fuel plants offsets gas savings (BAU, +2 TWh∙y−1). Nonetheless, feedbacks on other productive sectors entail additional energy consumption and emissions, thus counterpoising positive effects obtained within the energy sector even in the SEN scenario. Still, higher renewables penetration reduces overall additional emissions from 2.07 Mton∙y−1 for BAU to 0.88 Mton∙y−1 for the SEN.@en