The miombo woodland is the largest dry woodland formation in sub-Saharan Africa, covering an estimated area of 2.7–3.6 million km2. Compared to other global ecosystems, the miombo woodland demonstrates unique interactions between plant phenology and climate. For instance, it experiences an increase in the leaf area index (LAI) during the dry season. However, due to limited surface exchange observations in the miombo region, there is a lack of information regarding the effect of these properties on miombo woodland evaporation. It is crucial to have a better understanding of miombo evaporation for accurate hydrological and climate modelling in this region. Currently, the only available regional evaporation estimates are based on satellite data. However, the accuracy of these estimates is questionable due to the scarcity of field estimates with which to compare. Therefore, this study aims to compare the temporal dynamics and magnitudes of six satellite-based evaporation estimates – the Topography-driven Flux Exchange (FLEX-Topo) model, Global Land Evaporation Amsterdam Model (GLEAM), Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) MOD16 product, operational Simplified Surface Energy Balance (SSEBop) model, Thornthwaite–Mather climatic Water Balance (TerraClimate) dataset, and Water Productivity through Open access of Remotely sensed derived data (WaPOR) – during different phenophases in the miombo woodland of the Luangwa Basin, a representative river basin in southern Africa. The goal of this comparison is to determine if the temporal dynamics and magnitudes of the satellite-based evaporation estimates align with the documented feedback between miombo woodland and climate. In the absence of basin-scale field observations, actual evaporation estimates based on the multi-annual water balance (Ewb) are used for comparison. The results show significant discrepancies among the satellite-based evaporation estimates during the dormant and green-up and mid-green-up phenophases. These phenophases involve substantial changes in miombo species' canopy phenology, including the co-occurrence of leaf fall and leaf flush, as well as access to deeper moisture stocks to support leaf flush in preparation for the rainy season. The satellite-based evaporation estimates show the highest agreement during the senescence phenophase, which corresponds to the period of high temperature, high soil moisture, high leaf chlorophyll content, and highest LAI (i.e. late rainy season into the cool-dry season). In comparison to basin-scale actual evaporation, all six satellite-based evaporation estimates appear to underestimate evaporation. Satellite-based evaporation estimates do not accurately represent evaporation in this data-sparse region, which has a phenology and seasonality that significantly differ from the typical case in data-rich ground-truth locations. This may also be true for other locations with limited data coverage. Based on this study, it is crucial to conduct field-based observations of evaporation during different miombo species phenophases to improve satellite-based evaporation estimates in miombo woodlands.@en

Throughout the world, many people have been affected by water related issues in the past, some more extreme than others. In this context, hydrological models have often been used to gain more insight into the situation and to limit negative impacts as much as possible. There are many different types of hydrological models with each their strengths and weaknesses, but all models need a certain amount of reliable data. However, many river basins throughout the globe are poorly gauged which means there are only limited reliable ground observations available. That is why satellite observations provide many interesting opportunities to fill this gap of which many are not yet explored. Therefore the goal of this research was to answer the following main research question: What is the added value of satellite-based observations for hydrological modelling in a semi-arid, data-scarce river basin? This research focused on the Luangwa River in Zambia which is a large tributary of the Zambezi River. This semi-arid river basin is poorly gauged, mostly unregulated and sparsely populated. A process-based distributed hydrological model with sub-grid heterogeneity was developed in this research and modified step-wise when exploring the added value of different satellite observations for different aspects within hydrological modelling. This included analysing the information content of satellite-based river water level, i.e. altimetry, for model calibration, as well as evaporation and total water storage for step-wise model structure improvement and spatial-temporal model calibration. Overall, satellite-based observations have been used successfully to improve our understanding of the hydrological processes in the data-scarce Luangwa river basin, to improve the hydrological model structure and to allow for more reliable parameter identifications in the absence of reliable discharge data. This research focused on a selection of satellite-based observations and hydrological model applications. In other words, there remain many opportunities yet to be explored!@en

Satellite observations can provide valuable information for a better understanding of hydrological processes and thus serve as valuable tools for model structure development and improvement. While model calibration and evaluation have in recent years started to make increasing use of spatial, mostly remotely sensed information, model structural development largely remains to rely on discharge observations at basin outlets only. Due to the ill-posed inverse nature and the related equifinality issues in the modelling process, this frequently results in poor representations of the spatio-Temporal heterogeneity of system-internal processes, in particular for large river basins. The objective of this study is thus to explore the value of remotely sensed, gridded data to improve our understanding of the processes underlying this heterogeneity and, as a consequence, their quantitative representation in models through a stepwise adaptation of model structures and parameters. For this purpose, a distributed, process-based hydrological model was developed for the study region, the poorly gauged Luangwa River basin. As a first step, this benchmark model was calibrated to discharge data only and, in a post-calibration evaluation procedure, tested for its ability to simultaneously reproduce (1) the basin-Average temporal dynamics of remotely sensed evaporation and total water storage anomalies and (2) their temporally averaged spatial patterns. This allowed for the diagnosis of model structural deficiencies in reproducing these temporal dynamics and spatial patterns. Subsequently, the model structure was adapted in a stepwise procedure, testing five additional alternative process hypotheses that could potentially better describe the observed dynamics and pattern. These included, on the one hand, the addition and testing of alternative formulations of groundwater upwelling into wetlands as a function of the water storage and, on the other hand, alternative spatial discretizations of the groundwater reservoir. Similar to the benchmark, each alternative model hypothesis was, in a next step, calibrated to discharge only and tested against its ability to reproduce the observed spatio-Temporal pattern in evaporation and water storage anomalies. In a final step, all models were re-calibrated to discharge, evaporation and water storage anomalies simultaneously. The results indicated that (1) the benchmark model (Model A) could reproduce the time series of observed discharge, basin-Average evaporation and total water storage reasonably well. In contrast, it poorly represented time series of evaporation in wetland-dominated areas as well as the spatial pattern of evaporation and total water storage. (2) Stepwise adjustment of the model structure (Models B-F) suggested that Model F, allowing for upwelling groundwater from a distributed representation of the groundwater reservoir and (3) simultaneously calibrating the model with respect to multiple variables, i.e. discharge, evaporation and total water storage anomalies, provided the best representation of all these variables with respect to their temporal dynamics and spatial patterns, except for the basin-Average temporal dynamics in the total water storage anomalies. It was shown that satellite-based evaporation and total water storage anomaly data are not only valuable for multi-criteria calibration, but can also play an important role in improving our understanding of hydrological processes through the diagnosis of model deficiencies and stepwise model structural improvement.

@en

In the Luangwa basin in Zambia, long-term total water storage variations were observed with Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment, but not reproduced by a standard conceptual hydrological model that encapsulates our current understanding of the dominant regional hydrological processes. The objective of this study was to identify potential processes underlying these low-frequency variations through combined data analysis and model hypothesis testing. First, we analyzed the effect of data uncertainty by contrasting observed storage variations with multi-annual estimates of precipitation and evaporation from multiple data sources. Second, we analyzed four different combinations of model forcing and evaluated their skill to reproduce the observed long-term storage variations. Third, we formulated alternative model hypotheses for groundwater export to potentially explain low-frequency storage variations. Overall, the results suggest that the initial model's inability to reproduce the observed low-frequency storage variations was partly due to the forcing data used and partly due to the missing representation of regional groundwater export. More specifically, the choice of data source affected the model's ability to reproduce annual maximum storage fluctuations, whereas the annual minima improved by adapting the model structure to allow for groundwater export from a deeper groundwater layer. This suggests that, in contrast to previous research, conceptual models can reproduce long-term storage fluctuations if a suitable model structure is used. Overall, the results highlight the value of alternative data sources and iterative testing of model structural hypotheses to improve runoff predictions in a poorly gauged basin leading to enhanced understanding of its hydrological processes.

@en

Study region: The study area is the river basin upstream of the Kariba dam located in the Zambezi River at the border of Zambia and Zimbabwe. Study focus: During the dry season of 2019 in Sub-Saharan Africa, extremely low water levels occurred in the Zambezi. According to news media, locals perceived this drought as the worst in several decades. We analyzed the 2019 drought in the Zambezi River Basin upstream of the Kariba dam to determine whether it indeed was the longest, most intense, and severe drought, in terms of precipitation, total water storage and reservoir water level observations over recent decades. New hydrological insights for the region: Data analysis indicates that the 2019 drought indeed had the lowest basin-averaged annual rainfall, most severe local rainfall deficit in the north of the basin, and lowest reservoir level since 1995. However, the rainfall deficit was more severe in 2002, both basin-wide and locally in the south of the basin. The total storage deficit was more severe in 2004, both basin-wide and locally in the central part of the basin. However, as the available storage data did not cover the entire deficit for 2019, its final duration and severity remain unknown. Therefore, it depends on the drought characteristic, hydrological variable, and location within the basin, whether the 2019 drought was indeed the most extreme over recent decades.

@en

Limited availability of ground measurements in the vast majority of river basins world-wide increases the value of alternative data sources such as satellite observations in hydrological modelling. This study investigates the potential of using remotely sensed river water levels, i.e. altimetry observations, from multiple satellite missions to identify parameter sets for a hydrological model in the semi-arid Luangwa River basin in Zambia. A distributed process-based rainfall-runoff model with sub-grid process heterogeneity was developed and run on a daily timescale for the time period 2002 to 2016. As a benchmark, feasible model parameter sets were identified using traditional model calibration with observed river discharge data. For the parameter identification using remote sensing, data from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) were used in a first step to restrict the feasible parameter sets based on the seasonal fluctuations in total water storage. Next, three alternative ways of further restricting feasible model parameter sets using satellite altimetry time series from 18 different locations along the river were compared. In the calibrated benchmark case, daily river flows were reproduced relatively well with an optimum Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency of ENS,Q = 0.78 (5/95th percentiles of all feasible solutions ENS,Q,5/95 = 0.61-0.75). When using only GRACE observations to restrict the parameter space, assuming no discharge observations are available, an optimum of ENS,Q =-1.4 (ENS,Q,5/95 =-2.3-0.38) with respect to discharge was obtained. The direct use of altimetry-based river levels frequently led to overestimated flows and poorly identified feasible parameter sets (ENS,Q,5/95 =-2.9-0.10). Similarly, converting modelled discharge into water levels using rating curves in the form of power relationships with two additional free calibration parameters per virtual station resulted in an overestimation of the discharge and poorly identified feasible parameter sets (ENS,Q,5/95 =-2.6-0.25). However, accounting for river geometry proved to be highly effective. This included using river cross-section and gradient information extracted from global high-resolution terrain data available on Google Earth and applying the Strickler-Manning equation to convert modelled discharge into water levels. Many parameter sets identified with this method reproduced the hydrograph and multiple other signatures of discharge reasonably well, with an optimum of ENS,Q = 0.60 (ENS,Q,5/95 =-0.31-0.50). It was further shown that more accurate river cross-section data improved the water-level simulations, modelled rating curve, and discharge simulations during intermediate and low flows at the basin outlet where detailed on-site cross-section information was available. Also, increasing the number of virtual stations used for parameter selection in the calibration period considerably improved the model performance in a spatial split-sample validation. The results provide robust evidence that in the absence of directly observed discharge data for larger rivers in data-scarce regions, altimetry data from multiple virtual stations combined with GRACE observations have the potential to fill this gap when combined with readily available estimates of river geometry, thereby allowing a step towards more reliable hydrological modelling in poorly gauged or ungauged basins.

@en

Hydrological models play an important role in water resources management. These models generally rely on discharge data for calibration. Discharge time series are normally derived from observed water levels by using a rating curve. However, this method suffers from many uncertainties due to insufficient observations, inadequate rating curve fitting procedures, rating curve extrapolation, and temporal changes in the river geometry. Unfortunately, this problem is prominent in many African river basins. In this study, an alternative calibration method is presented using water-level time series instead of discharge, applied to a semi-distributed rainfall-runoff model for the semi-arid and poorly gauged Mara River basin in Kenya. The modelled discharges were converted into water levels using the Strickler-Manning formula. This method produces an additional model output; this is a geometric rating curve equation that relates the modelled discharge to the observed water level using the Strickler-Manning formula and a calibrated slope-roughness parameter. This procedure resulted in good and consistent model results during calibration and validation. The hydrological model was able to reproduce the water levels for the entire basin as well as for the Nyangores sub-catchment in the north. The newly derived geometric rating curves were subsequently compared to the existing rating curves. At the catchment outlet of the Mara, these differed significantly, most likely due to uncertainties in the recorded discharge time series. However, at the Nyangores sub-catchment, the geometric and recorded discharge were almost identical. In conclusion, the results obtained for the Mara River basin illustrate that with the proposed calibration method, the water-level time series can be simulated well, and that the discharge-water-level relation can also be derived, even in catchments with uncertain or lacking rating curve information.@en

In hydrology and water resources management, precipitation and discharge are the main time series for hydrological modelling. However, in African river catchments, the quantity and quality of the available precipitation stations and discharge measurements are unfortunately often inadequate for reliable hydrological modelling. To cope with these uncertainties, this study proposes to calibrate on water levels and to constrain the model using the Normalised Difference Infrared Index (NDII) as a proxy for root zone moisture stress. With the NDII, the leaf water content can be monitored. Previous studies related the NDII to the equivalent water thickness (EWT) of leaves, which is used to determine the vegetation water content (VWC). As the water content in the leaves is related to the water content in the root zone, the NDII can also be used as indicator of the soil moisture content in the root zone. In previous studies it was found that the root zone moisture content is exponentially correlated to the NDII during periods of moisture stress. In this study, the semi-distributed rainfall runoff model FLEX-Topo has been applied to the Mara River Basin. In this model seven sub-basins are distinguished and four hydrological response units with each a unique model structure based on the expected dominant flow processes. To calibrate the model, the water levels have been backcalculated from modelled discharges, using cross-section data and the Strickler formula calibrating parameter ‘k•s1=2’, and compared to measured water levels. In addition, the correlation between the NDII and root zone moisture content has been analysed for this river basin for each sub-catchment and hydrological response unit. Also, the application of the NDII as model constraint or for calibration has been analysed. @en