For decades, electrification planning in the developing world has often focused on extending the national grid to increase electricity access. This article draws attention to the potential complementary role of decentralized alternatives – primarily micro-grids – to address universal electricity access targets. To this aim, we propose a methodology consisting of three steps to estimate the LCOE and to size micro-grids for large-scale geo-spatial electrification modelling. In the first step, stochastic load demand profiles are generated for a wide range of settlement archetypes using the open-source RAMP model. In the second step, stochastic optimization is carried by the open-source MicroGridsPy model for combinations of settlement size, load demand profiles and other important techno-economic parameters influencing the LCOE. In the third step, surrogate models are generated to automatically evaluate the LCOE using a multivariate regression of micro-grid optimization results as a function of influencing parameters defining each scenario instance. Our developments coupled to the OnSSET electrification tool reveal an important increase in the cost-competitiveness of micro-grids compared to previous analyses.@en

With pressing priorities in the development agenda, policy makers in developing countries are in the difficult situation of prioritizing policy actions. Limited government and utility budgets need cost effective solutions to bring the desired development benefits of electrification, health, education and food security among others. Energy access is a prerequisite for economic activity and for human development as interacts in synergy with other development needs. As rural electrification models usually focus on the supply of electricity solely, thermal energy needs, such as cooking and water heating remain unattended and satisfied by non-renewable energy fuels. To this aim, we explore optimal electrification solutions addressing two types of energy demands, electricity and thermal energy demands for cooking. Our model builds on a 3-step electrification methodology proposed by Peña et al. including electricity as a modern source of clean energy for cooking in rural communities. The total investments needed to build and operate the microgrids, including distribution costs, is 332 million USD. This is equivalent to 1129 USD/per inhabitant. This amount does not account however the health and environment benefits that e-cooking can bring to inhabitants in Bolivian low-lands.

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