Population growth, economic development, and urbanisation are resulting in an increase in municipal solid waste, which is often landfilled in African countries. Landfill gas to energy (LFGE) projects utilise the methane emissions of landfills to generate energy. This could benefit African countries as it reduces waste and its associated emissions, and it improves energy supply. Although LFGE projects are already proven successful in other countries, they are not widely implemented in African countries.

This research investigated the reasons for the lacking diffusion and the conditions that will enable the emergence of LFGE projects in Africa. To this end, the innovation system surrounding LFGE projects, including the barriers to diffusion, was be described through the Technological Innovation System (TIS) framework. This research provides a conceptual model connecting the functional and the structural TIS approaches into a novel so called hybrid approach.

Through a literature review and exploratory expert interviews, 21 barriers to LFGE in Africa were identified. The barriers could be categorised into five categories: technical, institutional, organisational, social, and other. Eight barriers were incorporated into the conceptual model of the hybrid approach and converted into a system dynamics model, which was calibrated to South Africa. The results indicate that the wholesale price of electricity and the efficiency of the waste management system were the most important barriers to the diffusion of LFGE in Africa as they could individually cause diffusion or stagnation. These were followed by inaccessibility of the national electricity grid and public ownership of the landfill. The development of the national electricity grid and corruption turned out to have little to no impact on the development of the LFGE TIS. In terms of policies specific for LFGE, the model showed that an adequate feed-in tariff is the most impactful policy as it can create viability. This policy is followed by the obligation to generate electricity from LFGE as this can prevent the development of LFGE if implemented under the wrong circumstances. An obligation to buy the electricity from LFGE as well as a requirement to collect the LFG accelerate the diffusion, provided the most important barriers are overcome. Finally, the generation of carbon credits can partially compensate a low purchase price, which could create viability of LFGE in cases that would normally stagnate. Nevertheless, this effect is only temporary as the generation of carbon credits is not possible anymore once LFGE is considered to be the common practice in a country.

The results were synthesised into a flowchart indicating the different pathways to diffusion. This flowchart can be used by project developers to assess different countries on their LFGE potential. Additionally, the assessment of the institutional building block allows policymakers to effectively implement policies that enhance the diffusion of LFGE.