The future European electricity system will depend heavily on variable renewable generation, including wind power. To plan and operate reliable electricity supply systems, an understanding of wind power variability over a range of spatio-temporal scales is critical. In complex terrain, such as that found in mountainous Switzerland, wind speeds are influenced by a multitude of meteorological phenomena, many of which occur on scales too fine to capture with commonly used meteorological reanalysis datasets. Past work has shown that anticorrelation at a continental scale is an important way to help balance variable generation. Here, we investigate systematically for the first time the possibility of balancing wind variability by exploiting anticorrelation between weather patterns in complex terrain. We assess the capability for the Consortium for Small-scale Modeling (COSMO)-REA2 and COSMO-REA6 reanalyses (with a 2 and 6 km horizontal resolution, respectively) to reproduce historical measured data from weather stations, hub height anemometers, and wind turbine electricity generation across Switzerland. Both reanalyses are insufficient to reproduce site-specific wind speeds in Switzerland's complex terrain. We find however that mountain-valley breezes, orographic channelling, and variability imposed by European-scale weather regimes are represented by COSMO-REA2. We discover multi-day periods of wind electricity generation in regions of Switzerland which are anticorrelated with neighbouring European countries. Our results suggest that significantly more work is needed to understand the impact of fine scale wind power variability on national and continental electricity systems, and that higher-resolution reanalyses are necessary to accurately understand the local variability of renewable generation in complex terrain.@en

As wind and solar power provide a growing share of Europe's electricity, understanding and accommodating their variability on multiple timescales remains a critical problem. On weekly timescales, variability is related to long-lasting weather conditions, called weather regimes, which can cause lulls with a loss of wind power across neighbouring countries. Here we show that weather regimes provide a meteorological explanation for multi-day fluctuations in Europe's wind power and can help guide new deployment pathways that minimize this variability. Mean generation during different regimes currently ranges from 22 GW to 44 GW and is expected to triple by 2030 with current planning strategies. However, balancing future wind capacity across regions with contrasting inter-regime behaviour-specifically deploying in the Balkans instead of the North Sea-would almost eliminate these output variations, maintain mean generation, and increase fleet-wide minimum output. Solar photovoltaics could balance low-wind regimes locally, but only by expanding current capacity tenfold. New deployment strategies based on an understanding of continent-scale wind patterns and pan-European collaboration could enable a high share of wind energy whilst minimizing the negative impacts of output variability.@en