This paper presents a study of the predictability of bus usage based on massive bus ride data collected from Lisbon, Portugal. An understanding of public bus usage behavior is important for future development of personalized transport information systems that are equipped with proactive capabilities such as predictive travel recommender systems. In this study, we show that there exists a regularity in the bus usage and that daily bus rides can be predicted with a high degree of accuracy. In addition, we show that there are spatial and temporal factors that influence bus usage predictability. These influential factors include bus usage frequency, number of different bus lines and stops used, and time of rides.@en

Direct and easy access to public transport information is an important factor for improving the satisfaction and experience of transport users. In the future, public transport information systems could be turned into personalized recommender systems which can help riders save time, make more effective decisions and avoid frustrating situations. In this paper, we present a predictive study of the mobility patterns of public transport users to lay the foundation for transport information systems with proactive capabilities. By making use of travel card data from a large population of bus riders, we describe algorithms that can anticipate bus stops accessed by individual riders to generate knowledge about future transport access patterns. To this end, we investigate and compare different prediction algorithms that can incorporate various influential factors on mobility in public transport networks, e.g., travel distance or travel hot spots. In our evaluation, we demonstrate that by combining personal and population-wide mobility patterns we can improve prediction accuracy, even with little knowledge of past behavior of transport users.

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There is huge potential in increasing the value of public transportation by creating novel travel information systems which are centred on the individual transport user. Especially, in dense urban cities where it is hard to oversee complex transport networks that are subject to frequent changes, maintenance and construction works, travellers want to be proactively notified about disruptions and traffic incidents relevant to their future behaviour. In this paper, we show how to mine characteristic patterns of the transport routines of urban bus riders for the design of novel travel information system that have the ability to understand forthcoming travel needs of individual users. We leverage on travel histories collected from automated fare collection system (AFC) to extract features of personal transport usage and study their predictive power to forecast whether people access public transport services on a future day or not.

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