Focusing on the effective configuration of emergency response systems in utility tunnels, this study proposes an innovative approach to optimize existing emergency response systems based on a consequence rapid prediction model and genetic algorithm. In the proposed approach, the interactions between different emergency response components are considered to perform a rapid gas dispersion prediction. Furthermore, the predicted gas concentration distribution is employed to estimate the quantitative explosion risks by combining the equivalent cloud method and the Baker-Strehlow model. Finally, the cumulative and cascading risk index are proposed and combined for systematic optimization by using a genetic algorithm. A case study is performed to demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed approach. The results indicate that the optimized emergency response systems effectively reduce both the cumulative and cascading risk level. This study provides technical support for emergency response system design and helps to improve the safety-risk-control capabilities of utility tunnels.

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As an effective way to facilitate the increasing demand for reliable infrastructure, energy supply and sustainable urban development, underground utility tunnels have been developed rapidly in recent years. Due to the widespread distribution of utility tunnels, the safe operation of natural gas pipelines accommodated in utility tunnels has caused great concern considering fire, explosion, and other coupling consequences induced by the gas pipeline leakage. However, the limited information on leakage source terms in accidental leakage scenarios could preclude timely consequence assessment and effective emergency response. In this study, a BI-IEnKF coupling source term estimation (STE) model is developed, with the combination of gas dispersion model, Bayesian inference (BI) and iterative ensemble Kalman filter (IEnKF) method, to achieve the effective source term estimation (including leakage location and leakage rate) and gas concentration distribution prediction. The newly developed model is first evaluated by the twin experiment with good reliability and accuracy. Furthermore, three contributing factors affecting the performance of the developed BI-IEnKF coupling STE model were investigated to assist parameter selection for practical use. Additionally, the novel application of mobile sensors serving as an alternative for fixed sensors is explored, and an application framework is sequentially given to guide the deployment of the developed coupling model in utility tunnels. The results show that the developed model has great performance in accuracy, efficiency and robustness, as well as the potential to be applied in actual utility tunnel scenarios. This study can provide technical supports for safety control and emergency response in the case of natural gas pipeline leakage accidents in utility tunnels. Also, it could be helpful to reasonable references for gas lekage monitoring system design.@en

Accidents induced by natural disasters at sports sites may cause catastrophic loss of great concern. However, previous studies on risk assessments of sports sites have only focused on operational risk and equipment failure. With the frequent occurrence of extreme disasters, the risk of domino chains caused by natural disasters at large-scale events, such as large-scale winter sports sites, cannot be ignored. In this study, a natural disaster-induced accident-chain evolution analysis model (NAEA model) is proposed. Based on the results of the NAEA model, a fuzzy Bayesian network for domino accidents triggered by an earthquake at large-scale winter sports sites was established. Through sensitivity analysis and scenario analysis, it was found that fire and explosion accidents and crowded stampede accidents are the main causes of serious loss in domino disaster chains in large-scale sports sites. Simultaneously, improving the early warning capability, reliability of electrical equipment, and automatic sprinkler systems are the most effective ways to prevent and control major accidents. In addition, an optimal safety strategy improvement analysis was performed to facilitate the decision-making of safety managers to prevent serious accidents and reduce accident loss.@en

As a kind of critical infrastructure of energy transportation, so-called ‘utility tunnels’ have been developed around the world. Hosting a natural gas pipeline inside the natural gas compartment of a utility tunnel facilitates its maintenance but also brings potential explosion concerns due to the confined space. Although some work focuses on the risk analysis of the natural gas pipeline inside utility tunnels, a resilience assessment is needed for dynamically modeling leakage with interacting safety barriers. In this paper, a resilience assessment model of the natural gas compartment of utility tunnels is elaborated based on numerical simulation considering interacting barrier modeling, including sensors, a ventilation system, and the possibility of emergency shutdown. Based on the calculated (natural gas compartment) resilience for casualty and economic loss, ventilation strategies and sensor layouts can be recommended and optimization is possible. Meanwhile, the delay effect of safety barriers is investigated in this work, and the unequal interval layouts of sensors are explored and proven to be effective without any further cost. The proposed resilience assessment model can be important to further improve the safety management of utility tunnels and other confined spaces where hazardous gases are transported.@en

Barriers are used in various forms to assure the safety of chemical plants. A deep understanding of the literature related to safety barriers is essential to tackle the challenges in improving their design and management. This paper first provides an overview of the history of the development of the safety barrier concept. Subsequently, this paper elaborates a systematic review of the definition, classification, evaluation, performance assessment, and management of safety barriers in the chemical process industries. Based on the literature review, this study proposes a practical classification of safety barriers benefiting the identification of performance indicators and the collection of indicator-related data for safety barriers. The safety barrier functions are extended and illustrated by involving the resilience concept. Performance assessment criteria are proposed corresponding to the adaptability and recoverability of the safety barriers. Finally, the management of safety barriers is discussed. The roadmap for future studies to develop integrated management of safety and security barriers to ensure the resilience of chemical plants is suggested.@en

Toxic gas leakage represents a type of major process accident scenario threatening human life. Technical and non-technical safety barriers are employed to prevent toxic gas leakage accidents or mitigate the possible catastrophic consequences. Evacuation must be executed in severe toxic gas release scenarios. The performance assessment of technical safety barriers and evacuations in these accident scenarios, although very important, has never been investigated in previous studies. This paper proposes an approach integrating event tree analysis (ETA), computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulation, and evacuation modeling (EM), for risk assessment of toxic gas leakage accidents in chemical plants. In the proposed approach, the spatiotemporal distribution of toxic gas is predicted by CFD simulations. A dynamic evacuation is determined by a cellular automaton (CA)-based model. Synergistic interventions resulting from technical safety barriers and evacuations are considered in the risk assessment. Considering safety barrier failures in the event tree analysis, individual fatality risks due to toxic gas leakage scenarios are calculated. For illustrative purposes, the proposed method is applied to a case of ammonia leakage. The results show that worse scenarios would be ignored without considering the failure probabilities of technical safety barriers, which can cause underestimated individual fatality risks. Timely gas detection & alarm has the potential to expedite the starting time of evacuations and thus may shorten the time that evacuees stay in the toxicity area to reduce individual fatality risks.@en

Natural gas compartment accommodated in utility tunnels is beneficial in meeting the pressing demand of energy supply and sustainable urban environment. However, the leaking gas characterized by flammable and explosive can pose a huge threat to the safe operation of the utility tunnel. When an unexpected gas leakage accident happens in the actual situation, the prior information associated with the leakage source is commonly unclear or unknown. Therefore, the absence of an available tool for reasonable leakage and dispersion prediction in the above scenario precludes the timely and appropriate emergency response treatment. In this study, a three-dimensional source term estimation (3D-STE) model with the combination of the computational fluid dynamics (CFD) and ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) algorithm is proposed to achieve spatiotemporal gas concentration prediction and gas emission source estimation. In the proposed approach, the observation data can be incorporated into the gas dispersion simulations continuously, thus the simulation results can be revised by the observation data and the source term estimation of gas leakage can be achieved by employing the EnKF algorithm. A twin experiment is employed to validate the effectiveness and practicability of the proposed model. The results show that the proposed model can revise the prior errors in the gas leakage rate significantly and obtain an accurate prediction of gas concentration distribution as well as gas leakage rate. A feasible framework is also proposed serving as a good paradigm for the 3D-STE model application. This study helps for consequence assessment and emergency response of gas leakage accidents in utility tunnels.@en

In recent years, frequent large-scale power grid accidents have caused serious economic losses and bad social impact, which has drawn great attention from power grid enterprises. As one of the key elements of production, safety investment plays an important role in improving the safety level and reducing accident loss. In this paper, System dynamics (SD) and Bayesian network (BN) are integrated to develop a novel safety investment optimization model for power grid enterprises, which takes into account the impact of safety investment factors on accidents and the interactions between them. Based on sensitivity analysis, critical safety investment factors are determined to form the subsystem of the SD model. Subsequently, the optimal safety investment strategy is determined by a three-step simulation. The simulation results show that there are barrel effects and a diminishing marginal utility in safety investment. The proposed safety investment optimization model is practical to provide technical supports and guidance for determining an effective safety investment strategy in power grid enterprises.@en

As a kind of clean fuel, increasing quantities of natural gas have been transported as liquefied natural gas (LNG) worldwide. The safety of LNG storage has gained the concerns from the public due to the potential severe consequences that may arise from LNG leakage. In this paper, a three-dimensional model with the combination of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) and the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is proposed to predict LNG vapor dispersion and estimate the strength of the LNG leakage source. The LNG vapor dispersion CFD model is validated by the experimental data with good feasibility, and is further demonstrated with the reasonable modeling of the characteristics of the LNG vapor dispersion in a typical receiving terminal. The effectiveness of the proposed CFD and EnKF coupling model is evaluated and validated by a twin experiment. The results of the twin experiment indicate that the proposed CFD and EnKF coupling model allows the integration of observation data into the CFD simulations to enhance the prediction accuracy of the LNG vapor spatial-temporal distribution and thereby realizing a reasonable estimation of the LNG leakage velocity under complex environments. This study can provide technical supports for safety control, loss prevention and emergency response in case of LNG leakage accidents.

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Gas drainage system is a critical technique to prevent gas outbursts in the underground coal mine. The leakage of gas drainage pipelines can pose serious threats to the safety production of underground mining. In this paper, a multi-factors gas drainage pipeline leakage and diffusion (GDPLD) model is proposed based on the OpenFOAM platform, which can analyze the leakage and diffusion characteristics inside the pipelines. With field measurement data in a coal mine, the GDPLD model is verified with good practicability. Furthermore, scenario analysis in the context of different leak sizes, locations, and pipeline diameters is presented to evaluate the specific characteristics of gas leakage and diffusion inside the pipeline with negative pressure. The results showed that the leakage accident close to the pump station with a large leak size and small pipeline diameter usually represents the worst case, and when gas sensors are installed downstream of the leakage location, it is helpful to realize effective detection of the leakage accident. This study can help to improve the understanding of the leakage and diffusion characteristics of gas drainage pipelines and provide technical supports for the monitoring system design of the gas drainage pipelines in underground coal mines.

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With the rapid urbanization, urban underground utility tunnels have seen fast growth in China in the past few years. Urban utility tunnels can house various kinds of city ‘lifelines’ such as natural gas pipeline, heat pipeline, water supply system, sewer pipeline, electricity and telecommunication cables, which are of great significance to guarantee essential flows of energy, information and logistics for urban life. If a utility tunnel accident occurs, the consequences could be catastrophic. Risk assessment has been an important tool to examine the safety performance of industrial facilities and the effectiveness of safety measures. In this study, an integrated model based on dynamic hazard scenario identification (DHSI), Bayesian network (BN) modeling and risk analysis is proposed for risk assessment of urban utility tunnels. The worst-case scenario of urban utility tunnel accidents is identified by DHSI and modelled by BN. Meanwhile, risk analysis is conducted based on the results of BN considering casualties and economic losses. Finally, the integrated method is applied to evaluate the risk level of a real-world utility tunnel. The results indicate that the integrated quantitative risk assessment framework is an alternative and effective tool for safety assessment and land-use planning of urban utility tunnels.

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With rapid urbanization in China, many underground utility tunnels have been established these years. This huge underground construction facilitates city life, but may introduce societal risks due to the installation of high-risk pipelines. Natural gas pipelines have the potential to cause catastrophic accident if a gas leakage and a subsequent explosion occurs. The potential hazards in the gas compartments of a utility tunnel are quite different from those in conventional directly buried gas pipelines. This study developed a dynamic quantitative risk analysis method for natural gas pipelines in a utility tunnel. First, potential accident scenarios of natural gas pipelines situated in a utility tunnel were identified and implemented in a Bow-tie diagram based on case studies of typical gas pipeline accidents and expert experience. Then, a Bayesian network was established from the Bow-tie diagram using a mapping algorithm. Based on a comprehensive analysis of the results of probability updating and sensitivity analysis, critical influencing factors were identified. The proposed framework provides a predictive analysis of the gas pipeline accident evolution process from causes to consequences and examines key challenges in gas pipeline risk management in utility tunnels.

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