Aviation is one of the fastest-growing sources of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and continues to expand its emission footprint due to the growth of the global middle class and expanding international trade. Air cargo in particular is expected to grow rapidly over the next three
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Aviation is one of the fastest-growing sources of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and continues to expand its emission footprint due to the growth of the global middle class and expanding international trade. Air cargo in particular is expected to grow rapidly over the next three decades at 4.1% globally, even outpacing expected growth rates for passenger air traffic. Abating emissions in aviation, however, is extremely challenging, making aviation a so-called hard-to-abate industry. Hard-to-abate industries typically have high energy consumption and limited options for decarbonization without substantial technological advancements or changes in industrial processes. Aviation is a hard-to-abate industry due to its strict operational requirements, limited potential for improvements to incumbent technologies, complex infrastructural requirements, a challenging market environment that leads to economic constraints, and the slow turnover of aircraft. Meanwhile, the importance of air cargo for the global economy is enormous because approximately 20% of international trade by value is transported by air while accounting for less than 1% by volume. Therefore, sensible decarbonisation strategies have to be outlined that preserve air cargo in its function as a catalyst for prosperity around the globe. To achieve the aviation industry’s net-zero emissions goal by 2050 the only feasible option for decarbonisation is the large-scale adoption of Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAFs). SAF is a type of jet fuel that can be produced from biomass or electricity, reduces carbon emissions by up to 80% and has similar physical properties to conventional jet fuel, enabling its use in existing aircraft without modifications. Yet to date, adoption of SAF is extremely low at under 1% of total fuel consumption globally. The main barriers to large-scale diffusion of SAF are high production costs compared to conventional jet fuel and a lack of investments in new production facilities, leading to low availability of SAF. Nonetheless, policymakers and key industry actors are making tremendous efforts to drive the quick and reliable adoption of SAF. The USA, for instance, massively incentivises the domestic production of SAF through tax breaks as part of the ”Inflation Reduction Act”. Furthermore, the EU passed the ”RefuelEU Aviation Act” in the fall of 2023, mandating the increased use of SAF within the aviation sector. The act sets clear targets for SAF uptake, requiring that airlines use at least 2% SAF by 2025, increasing to 6% by 2030, and reaching 70% by 2050. Similarly, other countries like the UK, Norway, Singapore, Japan, Malaysia, Thailand, Turkey and Brazil have implemented or are expected to implement a SAF quota this decade. Moreover, large private corporations are dedicated to reducing their indirect emissions from their supply chain, referred to as scope 3 emissions. This commitment is driving significant demand for SAF, as businesses seek to lower their carbon footprint from transportation and logistics to meet stringent sustainability targets. While mandated or voluntary demand for SAF will inevitably increase the adoption of SAF in the near term, for the foreseeable future the price premium of SAF over conventional jet fuel will remain a major concern for all value chain members. Airlines, for example, are oftentimes unable to recoup the additional costs of SAF through the commercialisation of sustainable transportation products. Since cargo airlines are the focal link of the air cargo value chain, connecting the upstream segment, e.g. OEMs and airports, with the downstream segment, e.g. freight distributors, changes to one actor of the air cargo value chain will create follow-up effects on adjacent actors. Consequently, the current business models of all air cargo value chain members, including their respective revenue streams, value propositions and cost structures, are called into question. This leads to the following research question: How does the use of SAF impact companies’ business models across the air cargo industry value chain? To address the research question a two-pronged research approach was taken. Initially, a conceptual model was developed based on a modified version of the ”Business Model Canvas” by Osterwalder and Pigneur (2010) to dissect the rather abstract construct of a business model. This conceptual mode was then used to analyse the current business model of the most relevant air cargo value chain actors, e.g. aircraft manufacturers, airports, cargo airlines and freight distributors, and to hypothesise potenitial changes to these caused by the large-scale adoption of SAF. Subsequently, ten semi-structured interviews assessed industry experts’ perceptions on this topic to enrich the understanding of SAF’s impact on air cargo. The findings suggest that the impacts on investigated business models can be roughly divided into two groups. On the one hand aircraft manufacturers and airports are not directly affected by the adoption of SAF in air cargo. Therefore these actors function as facilitators and coordinators for the diffusion of SAF. Cargo airlines and freight distributors are expected to experience fundamental changes to their business model caused by SAF. These actors must quickly reevaluate their business model to align with the emerging sustainability standards and regulations. As mentioned above, aircraft manufacturers and airports are expected to experience negligible or minor impacts on their cost structures and revenue streams due to the adoption of SAF in air cargo. Airports currently do not own or operate fuelling facilities. This responsibility is outsourced to energy companies such as BP and Shell, which acquire multi-year concessions from airports to operate these facilities. Consequently, airports show little interest in investing in SAF production plants due to the associated risks, making additional revenues from SAF unlikely. Similarly, aircraft manufacturers do not anticipate significant revenue gains from producing aircraft with improved SAF blending certifications. This is primarily because OEMs are already operating at maximum production capacity and the industry’s focus is on producing as many new aircraft as possible to reduce emissions. Additionally, aircraft manufacturers will not experience changes to their cost structures, as existing technological knowledge can be leveraged without the need for new developments. This allows them to continue their operations without incurring extra costs related to SAF integration. Nonetheless, aircraft manufacturers’ and airports’ role as coordinators for the adoption of SAF requires changes to other building blocks of their respective business models such as partner networks and key activities to maintain business model consistency. For aircraft manufacturers, this means adding organizations involved in the production and certification of SAF to their partner network. Additionally, new key activities for aircraft manufacturers include orchestrating the scale-up of SAF production and facilitating and coordinating SAF adoption to avoid technological disruption. For airports, it involves positioning themselves strategically within the new SAF value chain to drive adoption advantageously. Additionally, airports need to rethink their customer relationships with airlines to create and sustain demand for SAF from airlines which will then attract investments in SAF infrastructure and production. Furthermore, SAF offers a unique opportunity for differentiation. Airports can use their well-established relationships with important stakeholders to advocate for SAF production in close proximity to the airport or analogue SAF transportation infrastructure. This step will enhance the airport’s value proposition by offering airlines the possibility to fuel large quantities of SAF. Aircraft manufacturers on the other hand can use higher SAF blending certification for their aircraft models to gain an advantage over competitors and improve their value proposition. Cargo airlines and freight distributors are expected to experience tremendous changes to their cost structure caused by consistently higher prices for SAF in the long term. This circumstance presumes higher revenue streams to maintain their business models’ financial viability. The ability to generate higher revenues is contingent upon the value proposition provided by cargo airlines and freight distributors. Therefore, the effective commercialization of sustainable transportation services will become a key activity for these companies. Promising approaches to the commercialisation of SAF include the ability for cargo owners to claim scope 3 emissions reductions based on the use of SAF, and the ability to offer SAF as part of a wider business case where sustainable transport is offered as an added value to the consumer purchasing a specific product. To conduct these measures the industry requires standardised carbon accounting rules to claim emissions reduction, a comprehensive approach to SAF certificate trading to track the flow of SAF and emissions across the value chain, and a reliable legal framework that allows companies to communicate the benefits of SAF to the consumer without the risk of being accused of greenwashing. Achieving this will require cargo airlines and freight distributors to expand their partner network to include new collaborators. For example, organizations that set standards for carbon accounting should be integrated. Additionally, developing a SAF certificate trading system with the necessary partners in the fuel supply chain is essential. Ultimately, these measures will significantly enhance the value proposition. Nonetheless, it has to be noted that not all cargo owners yet demonstrate a sufficient willingness to pay for sustainability. Therefore, close customer relationships and a comprehensive but concise communication of the benefits of SAF will become pivotal for cargo airlines and freight distributors. To identify lead customers for the commercialisation of SAF customer segmentation will be conducted along novel criteria. Examples of these are a cargo owner’s emphasis on emissions reduction (in this case a customer’s adherence to the SBT initiative is usually a good proxy), a fixation on high-margin industries that are able to pay a premium for SAF (e.g. the luxury goods or pharmaceuticals sector), and a focus on industries that are close to the consumer and are therefore able to communicate sustainability as an added value (e.g. the retail or apparel sector). Lastly, amid the significant uncertainty surrounding the adoption of emerging technologies like SAF, effective risk management will be pivotal. Especially demand, price, policy and technology risks require careful consideration, positioning effective risk management as a second key activity. Despite these changes, the early and decisive adoption of SAF by cargo airlines and freight distributors presents numerous opportunities. The complexity of SAF certificate trading and carbon accounting, among other aspects, means that the successful commercialization of SAF will be the result of a long learning process. To avoid falling behind, companies must set out today to capitalise on the rapidly growing market for sustainable transportation services. Furthermore, the decarbonisation of aviation through the use of SAF presents a unique opportunity to showcase that the aviation industry is able to address its problems effectively, creating social and political acceptance for future industry growth in the process. This thesis is the first study to investigate the intersection of SAF, business model transformation, and air cargo. Beyond its contribution to research, the results also have significant practical implications. The anticipated cost increases, coupled with the prevalent inability to recoup these additional expenses through the successful commercialization of sustainable transportation services, pose a substantial risk to the viability of cargo airlines’ and freight distributors’ business models. Mandated SAF quotas in the EU, which can lead to competitive distortions between airlines and freight distributors from different geographic regions, are a particular concern. The insights from this study can help companies navigate these emerging risks by identifying the areas of their business models most impacted. To address potential risks, companies must first be aware of their existence and pinpoint where they occur. Now that an awareness of the aforementioned potentially negative impacts is created, companies can carry out an as-is analysis of the relevant areas. Additionally, this study advocates for a shift in the conversation around SAF. Instead of viewing SAF as a cost burden, it suggests recognising the early adoption of SAF as an opportunity to gain valuable experience in the commercialization of sustainable transportation solutions, especially in light of growing public pressure for decarbonization. This opportunistic view on SAF can help to create and sustain company internal support for early investments in SAF. Furthermore, the study’s results highlight the importance of aircraft manufacturers and airports as facilitators for the adoption of SAF. This is contrary to the prevailing conviction that the actors can not shape the transition. Being aware of this will help aircraft manufacturer and airports to re-evaluate their corporate strategy, potentially strengthening their business models’ resilience and flexibility. In conclusion, the research reveals that the adoption of SAF significantly impacts the business models of companies across the air cargo industry value chain. Aircraft manufacturers and airports, playing coordinative roles, experience minimal direct effects on their cost structures and revenue streams. Instead, their contribution lies in facilitating the diffusion of SAF by coordinating between new and existing partners. In contrast, cargo airlines and freight distributors face substantial changes due to the higher costs associated with SAF. These companies must adapt their business models to effectively commercialise sustainable transportation services, which includes developing robust carbon accounting practices, SAF certificate trading systems and strong customer relationships focused on sustainability. The findings indicate that proactive adjustments to business models, focusing on the commercialization of sustainability to allocate the additional costs of SAF across the value chain, will be essential for cargo airlines and freight distributors to sustain financially viable and globally competitive business models. The study also emphasises the necessity for these actors to view SAF adoption as an opportunity rather than a burden, enabling them to gain valuable experience and lead in the sustainable air cargo market. This shift in perspective, combined with necessary strategic changes in partner networks and key activities, can help mitigate risks and leverage the growing demand for sustainable transportation. By addressing these challenges proactively, companies can position themselves advantageously in an increasingly environmentally conscious air cargo market.